psuhoffman

Way too many act like each run at day 7 is going to be the final solution v just another clue. Until we get within a few days I treat each run like one card being dealt in a long night at the poker table. Some act like every run is the last card of the night and they have their entire life savings riding on it.

It did. Slightly. You’re welcome.

Would it be funny if cape, bob and I all came in here one day with a mission of driving all the weenies off a cliff just to see what happens? Don’t worry I would NEVER do such a thing.

South of PA definitely mixes but it’s not the worst look. Yea there is a weakness in the high where we don’t want it but still generally higher pressure all across to our north. If we can get the pressure directly over us about 5mb higher we have a chance. This isn’t that far from a snowier outcome imo.

Slightly colder press, better CAD but slightly more amplified wave. Likely a wash and similar to 12z in the end.

Thanks for the info. I’d be curious to see what this rare combo of that extreme a -AO block encroaching into the north nao domain over top a south +nao would do. I guess we’re about to find out.

lol. Sorry. It is what it is. But I’ve been riding the end of Feb or early March as a period to watch for a while and I see no reason to back down now.

MECS window

Nothing about this winter has been typical. And the last two ninos weren’t typical Nino. Enso hasn’t meant as much lately.

When you looked at +NAO did you also make sure to only use examples where the AO is negative with a block over top the nao? This is delicate because I don’t totally disagree with you. I’m also skeptical. But that -AO gives this more of a chance than if it was a more typical +nao in conjunction with a +AO.

@Stormchaserchuck1 sorry of that came off harsh, didn’t mean it to be.

We know how the nao is numerically calculated but most don’t functionally do it that way. Also the AO is even more correlated to snow than the nao so ok it’s a -AO. With regards to snow chances whats your point?

It counts freezing rain as snow. Ignore TT snow maps

that’s kinda what I thought. I lived in southwest NJ for 13 years. I’m familiar with the climo there. It SUCKS!!!

@frd I think the trough ends up centered more in the east for the end of February. The issue is where you live no pattern makes it super likely to get a big snow. You know your climo. Even the best patterns fail more often than not. That’s true even here but especially on the coastal plain. I’d also bet more of your huge snows had more epo/pna help. Here that’s a cold dry look a -epo/ao/nao/+pna. But for you that’s probably more common for a big snow. But honestly not sure, what are the biggest snows for your area? Do you get in on the coastal scrapers or the 95 storms more? Or are you stuck in between where you get some from both?

Thank you

You mean when Baltimore got snowstorms after PD in 1993, 1994, 1996, 1999, 2005, 2009, 2014 and 2015? Where does this feeling it’s harder to get snow after Presidents’ Day come from?

Looks happy

How many big snows have we had before PD in February lately?

I hear ya. Know who to listen to. Several people were quick to point out this is not a 2016 type setup and the similarities on the snow maps were superficial

Where you getting them from. My source isn’t updating…thanks.

I think the uniformity can be taken as a sign a somewhat similar setup will happen. If a random model shows a storm at 160 hours there have even a guarantee any storm at all happens anywhere. The wave could be an error. But even if it happens 100 mile shifts either way are normal errors at that range. And the strong consensus I do think increased confidence. But from like 10% to 30% or something like that. Normally I wouldn’t even give some crazy snowstorm on a day 7-10 run without a ton of guidance support any chance at all. I’d just toss it. This gave it some hope. But some were acting like it meant a big snow was the most likely outcome.

@frd if you don’t mind me asking, what part of Delaware do you live?

Since when did we start trying to lock in details on progressive waves 150 hours out? This is nuts. Some are acting like these storms are 24 hours out having an emotional reaction to every run. Just because we had a few days with guidance spitting our crazy snow totals doesn’t chance how far out it is or make the guidance more accurate at those ranges.

My reference to PD2 was specific to what that run yesterday showed. I feel like I’ve tried to encourage caution regarding this pattern. But I know that’s impossible when models are spitting out crazy clown maps. I’m also trying to balance caution with not being a deb. I don’t feel like we’re doomed. We could get a big snow. But when I searched for analogs to next week many of them the bigger snow was to our NW. but it was hard to find a great pattern match honestly. I’m just have been more skeptical I think or maybe reserved. Why? If we get a snowstorm Feb 25 you’re gonna complain it wasn’t Feb 10? Plus I’m not throwing in the towel on next week. Why is everyone going to extremes. I’m not confident we do get a big snow soliton. The more common outcome would be a parade of waves with some snow and ice with each. But anomalies happen. It wouldn’t shock me if we get a 6-10” snowstorm somehow next week from one of those waves. It kinda would shock me if those 20” storms from yesterday’s Euro and GFS hit. Dunno what they were smoking. But it also wouldn’t shock me if we get 1-3” then ice which is historically favored in that pattern. But it’s too early to be confident on either outcome.