psuhoffman

@CAPE this a -NAO?

The gefs is trending towards the EPS and it’s only a few days behind getting to the same place even if it’s right. At least with respect to the day 15 pattern.

You will be surprised if the EPS verifies better than the GEFS?

I wasn’t talking about you. lol. You’re not a new poster. That comment had nothing to do with you.

Feb 2013 I got 5” in 90 mins from a squall. During the Feb 10 2010 storm I got 12” in 3 hours at the start. That’s the heaviest snows I’ve experienced here.

I said I’m less confident about what happens between now and Feb 20 not that it has no chance. The issue is historically models have teased us a lot from a week out in TNH -epo +AO patterns only to shift NW. This includes some of the analogs I’m riding. I remember around Feb 1 in 2018 we were optimistic about a similar pattern. There were epic runs with tons of hits. In the end we got like 2-3” from one wave and a lot of rain. Something similar happened in 2017 also. Yea it could go like 2014 but more often this pattern we end up on the wrong side. Not always. This year has been colder so maybe we get the rare win. But Chuck isn’t totally wrong about his reservations. But he is too sure and extending it too long imo. But this isn’t a sure thing. This type of pattern is usually better for the upper Midwest and interior New England than here.

There was some squall in the 80s where some places got 7” in an hour! There was that inverted trough in 2009 where places in southern PA got 11” in 2-3 hours. I’d almost love that more than a regular 20” storm.

That’s a seriously -AO

The cold looks like it’s penetrating the SER

-pna

-pna

There is a growing list of new posters that don’t make much sense to me. They post with an air of certainty but what they say makes no damn sense. Let me be clear. I am not the smartest person in here. Not even close. There are plenty of topics I don’t know jack about. But I would never go into a medical forum and start posting about the efficacy of some drug I don’t know shit about. Or join a car forum and start posting about how to fix a transmission.

It’s been colder, in case your skin doesn’t work and you haven’t noticed.

lol when I asked if he was ok because I was genuinely concerned I didn’t intend it to be interpreted as some batsignal that we needed a bunch of pna posts in the thread. My bad.

H5 typically has to be in place before a threat. I’m sticking to Feb 20 estimate for when the ground truth changes. But 10 days ago all I had was faith in the seasonal pattern progression. Then a week ago some hints started to show up that things were heading to this. Now the pattern is fully showing up on the eps right when it should.

End of eps is Wow

lol Im less sure what happens the next 15 days. Models have a history of teasing us at range in a TNH pattern only to shift NW come game time. But this year does feel different so I’m holding out hope but I’m more confident in where the pattern is heading after regardless of how these waves the next 2 weeks go. Chuck seems oddly invested in a warmer outcome for some reason.

I was talking about where we’re heading about Feb 20. Which is 20 days away. Which is more than 15 Why are you going with the warmer less accurate guidance over the colder more accurate guidance?

EPS Enjoy that SER while it lasts with that EPO to NAO ridge bridge setting up! It's already starting to get beat down at the end.

Oh hello...

The pattern in the western and central Pacific is less supportive of that happening imo. Maybe temporarily at the very start, but we are not in the deep hostile PDO regime that I think was a big part of that problem recently.

Maybe you didn't read the whole post... "This does not mean I am tossing any chance at something before that. We snowed in the middle of the "warmer" period that lead into the late season colder one in several of the analogs I looked at. Nothing major but a nice little boundary wave that caught us when the cold pressed behind some rainstorm. I think something in that window around the 9th-13th is possible. Just will take some luck with wave spacing and timing. "

I think its perception bias. The numbers show the chances of a snowstorm are almost the same each week until you get past the second week of March when they fall off a cliff suddenly. Yes we have a LOT of fails in March because of boundary temps. Guess what, we just had one of those 2 weeks ago! We had one on the day of the super bowl in Feb 2021! I got 7" and 95 white rain because boundary temps sucked on a perfect track storm! Had those two storms happened in March people would have attributed the fail to it being March when in reality that happens even in the middle of winter here because we suck at snow.

Everything looks on track. You can see the SER getting beaten down at the end of the GEFS. EPS ends a day sooner but its hinting at the same progression. That takes us to mid Feb. A week later the boundary is likely south of us. I might add in a couple day leeway for the fact the guidance often is too fast in this progression but its now starting to line up with the idea that around Feb 20 is the start of the next colder period. This does not mean I am tossing any chance at something before that. We snowed in the middle of the "warmer" period that lead into the late season colder one in several of the analogs I looked at. Nothing major but a nice little boundary wave that caught us when the cold pressed behind some rainstorm. I think something in that window around the 9th-13th is possible. Just will take some luck with wave spacing and timing.

I'm gonna go ahead and pencil in our March 93 repeat for March 3th and our March 58 nightcap for the 7th.