psuhoffman

what we call it is semantics but the issue with what Chuck did there is by using a technicality to define that as a +nao then looking up all +nao -epo scenarios you’re probably getting mostly “true” +nao scenarios where this isn’t a “north based -nao block” over the top of Chucks “south based +nao”. again not interested in a debate about what we should call things. All that said Chuck isn’t wrong that this setup is flawed for a MECS level snow. The mid latitude longwave configuration is not ideal for a big snowstorm south of 40. The trough our west is an issue. But we have some things working for us we don’t have in every similar setup that gives us a shot. But the analogs to this pattern are more snowy to our north. That’s why I’ve been hesitant to get too excited. @Ji a 3-6” snow to ice should be a huge win. Look at the h5. It doesn’t matter what the models show on clown maps at 170 hours. You’re better than that, even though you like to come in here and pretend you’re not to vent your frustrations. But you know damn well that this pattern is not typical of a 20” snowstorm. Im not saying there’s not a chance at a big snow here. We have some things working for us that are atypical and could argue a better outcome than usual in the general pattern. But it’s risky to assume a big snowstorm solution from a pattern that’s atypical of that level event. Yes it’s unusual for the ensembles to be this consistent and show these totals. And yes the last time was 2016 but that storm was totally supported by the pattern. I’m more cautious here and would take a more modest snow event as a win.

Anyone know where CPC moved their analogs. The site I’ve used hadn’t updated since December.

Life must be difficult for you

If I had to choose epo or AO/NAO I’ll take the latter. EPO is more correlated to cold but the AO and NAO is more correlated to snow. Especially later Feb into March. Frankly maybe trying a wetter pattern with blocking is the way to go. If the epo ao nao all go negative again it might just be a repeat of January. Cold but mostly dry. This would be warmer but way more active but with a suppressed storm track.

I’m not disagreeing but just opining how we kinda set ourselves up emotionally for the fall. And I do this too, this is a self reflection also. But 10 days ago when February looked like a torch we were talking about could we eek out anymore snow this winter. Now we’re gonna act like a run with a 3-6” snowstorm is blah. Given our snow climo any run that shows accumulating snow is a win lol. But I totally get it. BTW…I finally had a chance to dig into the crazy GEFS run. The 10” mean day 10 is actually from two waves. The one the op dropped a MECS from and another right after. That follow up wave is low key gaining support on guidance just hasn’t shown up big on any op runs yet. But it’s worth noting that big mean isn’t all from the one storm which does kinda temper things “some”. The op runs of the euro and gfs were kinda the max potential solutions. It’s good that the ops show that but it might not be the most likely outcome yet. I don’t want people to get themselves to a place where if we end up with a 5” snow they’re acting like it’s a fail.

It’s not typical at any range

10 day mean

GEFS went nuclear 4 day mean

Still the 12z AI would be the nightmare lol scenario for those in the same snow hole that’s been the last 8 years. 3 waves go north and one south leaving a comical snow hole over guess where! I think it should at least be a cautionary tale that nothing is in the bag yet.

Something’s been missing

lol you’re north of the extreme mid level firehose Im talking about on this run too. But I’d be suspect of those crazy totals down in central VA as there’s very likely a mid level warm layer associated with the strong SW h7 winds partially responsible for that crazy precip band. The gfs won’t see it at this range. Remember places in central VA expected 18” before PD2 and got 8” of sleet instead.

The setup has some similarities.

You want it exactly where it is right now. BTW similar to PD2 there will be a warm layer above 850 that intrudes into that firehose to our south. Being a little NW of that is not a bad place to be. Not that ending up with 20” of snow and sleet would be bad either. But some of those places showing 25” will probably in reality mix more from a mid level warm layer the gfs won’t see.

Maybe in Vermont

The AO starts to tank by the 12th. That’s a few days ahead of schedule. Then we because there is already cold around we dive right into threats. I still think things look good for around the 20th.

EPS just opened up a can

The blocking started to set up a week ahead of schedule.

As far as you know it could be stuck from April to October.

EPS

Lol

14-15 was a modoki nino and 2014 was the best cold enso season since 1996 and the second best since the 60s. This is probably going to end up being one of the better cold enso seasons of the last 20 years...that should be the bar.

I'm basing it off pattern analogs not what the models show right now....and I am being conservative given how little snow we have had lately.