psuhoffman

Ya you have just been a while. That’s typically when they really happen.

I’m getting pretty frustrated but I’ll never stop tracking.

Signs increasing the NAO tanks again in 10-15 days.

It’s likely to warm up after that storm unless it really bombs and forms another 50/50. Then maybe we get an ice threat or at least not a huge warm surge ahead of the next wave. But that wave is likely to amplify west of us. The NAO breaks down temporarily and as it reloads (yep the NAO looks to tank again in 10-15 days) the next trough is likely to amplify in the central US.

Euro has a couple nice looks when it was way out at day 8-10 range

@losetoa6 I got 30” from one of those 2010 storms on 1.5 qpf!

That’s 10-1. You know what our ratios would be with 1.3 qpf on the northern fringes of a bombing coastal and -9 850s... plus that weird fujuwara it does with the precip as the coastal takes over never actually happens. It’s a model bias.

GEPS loves that threat too. Gefs is more north (good!!!!!)

This is the mean for the whole storm. You need to use the 72 hour snow mean to capture it all because there are some timing differences and some members have the secondary stall and linger.

Just once...

You would think if we keep getting GOOD setups one has to work eventually. Right lol

At least some people still know what's up

That’s too much specificity for that range. The weird double barrel h5 pinwheel aside the track of the h5 and surface low adjusted south again. That’s the takeaway at that range. I’m not even worrying about that weird h5 Fujiwara it pulled.

Very close...big hit for NW of 95. But the trends both now and seasonal are the key. Ignore the gfs also. It’s added more confusion then anything else lately. All other guidance is trending south pretty dramatically over the last 24-48 hours and that fits the seasonal trend. I expect further south adjustment the next 2-3 days. There is a limit to how far south though because this is coming across pretty far north. I’m not as worried this gets squashed south of us as with the Thursday storm. Trends since Dec are south/weaker day 3-7 and a slight north amp bump the final 48.

Dude look how that wave has been trending the last 48 hours. Then look where every storm has trended the last month. Storms that were cutting so far north we didn’t even give them a thought at day 8-10 ended up suppressed south of us! Just pray by the time we get to 100 hours were not looking at another NC snow threat.

Simple isn’t an option. Simple would be a wave running under us with a nice WAA snow shield. That cannot happen because there isn’t enough cold. Look at the thermals I posted last night from the icon as the wave gets into the plains. It has no snow shield to it’s NE again because there is no tight thermal gradient to focus along. You can go 250 miles and only get a 5-10 degree change because it’s 28 degrees all the way up into Canada where it should be 10 degrees. Because of this we will likely continue to see storms where there is little to no WAA snow shield to the northeast of them. We need some kind of dynamic system that amplifies in just the right spot and given the blocking that’s going to involve some form of west track transfer hybrid system. And yes that’s the complicated way and we prefer simple but without the overrunning option simple is gone. I guess you could consider tonight simple except the snow shield is sooooo narrow because of the factors above its not really simple and it’s pretty limited in potential and scope.

If the Mjo gets into 8 with a -AO and we still fail lol. We’ve been fighting a somewhat hostile Pac base state. Although I think some are using that as a comfort blanket honestly because the pac forcing has been mostly blah and muted. Definitely not good but not awful. And we’ve overcome a similar pac with a -AO/NAO before. But if we get the pac into a favorable forcing state in Feb and its still not cold enough the excuses start to run out. BTW when I say forcing I don’t mean the longwave pattern necessarily. I have my suspicious the typical response is being altered somewhat. But that altered response if somewhat permanent is irrelevant. If the forcing takes on a typical nino phase 8 look and we still see a hostile longwave pattern....well at least we can eliminate the “we need the pac to cooperate” posts.

It’s a living

Guess I’ve been booted from the forum.

Yea that looks off. It’s more like 2-3” which is a hecs by recent standards

It has some light snow on the front...but when you say it looked nice I think most aren't really chasing an inch or two followed by rain on a day 7 threat. But I am not even worrying about those details at that range anyways...but I agree the way the run was described did not align with what the run looked like. That GFS run the other night was NICE. That ICON was...ehh at least its got some pity flakes.

I saw that all or nothing dichotomy because either the wave has the necessary amplitude to begin to amplify a surface system and cut off to our west and it would then foster a bombing secondary along the coast that would tuck in tight with the upper low...or it would fail to reach the necessary amplitude and get suppressed by the flow. In between doesn't really work. Its a a critical mass thing to spark the chain reaction we needed...there is a very narrow zone for the in between options...its more likely it amplifies or gets squashed because its too weak.

Oh no you don't...you started all this by dropping these nuggets for no reason in both storm threads earlier today. You didn't post in banter. And now you want to pull this passive aggressive BS "not the right place" crap because you're rightfully taking a beating for the nonsense garbage you posted.

I expect it to keep trending south... I thought it would either amplify enough to bomb along the coast...or get squashed...I never liked the in between option. It's becoming clear which way its going imo.