psuhoffman

Geps trend last 4 runs... ok the south trend can stop now

When's the snow gonna start?

I said its complicated not it wont work. I see that option...I also could see that "capture" missing and the storm slides out. Both are possible permutations.

just saw your surface map.... that is pretty textbook if it were not for that vortex over Maine I would say its bob chill face worthy...but that complicates things. Could squash the secondary development due east...we need it to gain a little latitude from where its at 144...not a lot but ideally we want it to move NE from there to off the delmarva then east. It might move due east under that vortex in NE

@yoda Where is the secondary forming at 144?

Ehh...what's it got going on over New England??? That is a bit too much... Love the h5 low placement but hard to see the coastal really amplifying much with that sitting on top of it. It would be CLOSE to something bigger but I dunno with that there. But were worrying about details too much for 144 hours. Not a bad thing to have something a little south when the other 3 globals were all a little north so far.

That could even be a little too far south...depending on what the coastal does after. LOL

Gefs 24 hour trend

Yea man...I'm not buying these 995 primary nw of us...I'm willing to sacrifice the waa snow Sunday for a much bigger chance Monday Check out the changes at h5. This was a better run imo if we want to get the big coastal option.

@Ji look at the h5...I actually like this CMC run better then 12z. The h5 tracked further south and more amplified...it was closer to a BIG storm for us imo just had the primary hold on slightly too long...but given the seasonal trend I would go against an over amplified primary into the ohio valley. The rest of the run was better...better h5 track, better cold press in front.

The cold push trended south...even with the further north primary the temperatures (other then right as the primary jumps over us) are colder. NW of 95 stays all snow. But we kind of get screwed on precip...the initial WAA thump goes southeast of us (colder press suppresses that)...then the redevelopment is mostly north...we are in a screwzone of lighter precip in between.

CMC has an even more aggressive cold push in front of the storm. But it also amplifies the primary a little too much and so the transfer happens a little slower and further north...Not the improvement I wanted to see but not a bad run either.

ask me how much I care about the GFS qpf at 132 hours...go ahead I dare ya

Two vorts one trough Lead wave is dying as it runs into the block...second wave re-amplifies and sparks a secondary coastal. This setup has happened before but its "complicated". I know I know...we dont do...but if we keep getting pretty darn good setups, even if complicated...eventually you would think law of averages would be on our side.

ask me how much I care about the surface temp on the GFS at 132 hours. I dare ya

last 5 gfs runs

The south trend has been when storms get under 200 hours and usually continues until about 100 hours...from there on in the shifts become a lot less significant and more fine tuning details. Some even do end up nudging north some the final 48 hours...but by then they were all so squashed it didnt matter to us.

That would be one way to go...or if the -NAO rebuilds we could get another setup like the next week with systems cutting through the ridge in the east under the block...but with enough cold in the pattern that can work. Get enough of a block and the whole trough could end up spreading east and we could get waves along the boundary. There are lots of options with the -NAO -EPO look in the long range. Yes there are higher heights along the east coast but that is not a bad pattern imo and I bet would look different when it gets closer.

Kinda hard not to feel like we want this a little north still at this stage given the seasonal trend since the NAO block went up right after New Years...I can't remember a single wave Since Jan 1 that didn't trend south. And some of them were literally cutters day 10 that ended up way south of us in reality, teasing us for a day or two during the transition.

It trended better...a decent WAA front end snow...but the big show ends up in New England... transfer is too slow and messy and the upper levels never close off until too late... DC stays all frozen though snow to sleet to dryslot. Yea I know it shows green on TT but its well below freezing the whole storm...enough so that its probably sleet v freezing rain.

We have protection. It’s called living in the mid Atlantic. Best **** blocker there is.

I could have used a break. It feels too soon to be jumping in bed with the next one. I feel kinda dirty and cheap like this is just the rebound storm.

What do you care, you’re still living in the meteorological 1800s. Radar won’t come along for another 75 years for you. Just use the pressure in Pittsburgh to figure it out. But I hope the pony express travels fast or else the storm will be over by the time you get it.

It has potential. But so did Thursday. Look at this... that’s beautiful if you just get rid of that freaking crap wave that decides to stall and sit over the northeast all week (it’s still snowing up there as the Thursday wave passes to the south) and that stupid mini TPV on top. The NE wave is preventing the ridging from going up as well we pulling the 50/50 westward and the tpv is flattening the flow on top. The combo keeps the wave progressive and positively tilted and it ends to being absorbed and phasing with all 3 features into the Atlantic vortex. The fact they all phase into a monster vortex gives us a do over though by recycling the pattern one more time before it breaks down. But there are some subtle differences. There is slightly more space. The western ridge is further west. It’s still east of the canonical Boise ridge but that’s ok because this wave is coming in pretty far north and going negative early and so we need the ridge axis east to shove it to the coast. Otherwise it would stall and even with the block that’s to good. The blocking is in the stages of breaking down which should allow more amplification. The wildcard is the wave coming in so far north. That makes it less likely this gets squashed south but it’s flirting dangerously with a miller b screw job if the blocking relaxes too much too early and it jumps too far north. That’s the bigger fail threat with this one imo. So there are some things I like more about this threat. Some less. Both looked good from this range. Remember both of the features that screwed us Thursday weren’t there from long range. So we have to see if some discreet features not yet showing start to pop up that could interfere. Two things I don’t want to see is slowing down. The blocking is breaking down so we don’t want it taking too long. The other is too much energy on the lead wave of the trough which could drive the primary too far north.

You’re thinking of March 7-8 2018. That one totally screwed me. One of the worst short range busts here in a long time. EVERY piece of guidance was giving me 6-10” of snow literally 12 hours before it was supposed to start. But miller b transfers are always tricky and the low developed about 50 miles east of expected and I got fringed. Only about an inch. The big storm later in the month took the sting out of that one a little.