psuhoffman

Depends...if you look at it AS IS it’s great. If you project likely future trends based on seasonal model bias it’s iffy. I would also prefer slightly north because that’s a safer bet. I cannot see given that flow to our north any scenario in which this cuts to the point we don’t get a decent if not warning level snow. Even if it took a gfs like track we probably get 6” before any change up here. I can totally live with that. I just want a snowstorm. But the more the primary trends slower and south and we rely on a coastal yes that could be huge but it also could be us smokin cirrus if the h5 swings too far south. I would rather it be slightly too far north of perfect on guidance at this range because of the seasonal trends and that gives us way more wiggle room from a complete bust up here. Obviously this is location specific. If I was in VA suppressed would be less of a concern but even there...if you told me DC gets no snow from this I would say it must have been suppressed. I can see ways we miss a hecs by a north track but the only way I see is getting totally screwed us if the storm cuts off and slides out to our south.

Don’t joke like that...seriously don’t tempt fate. I could see this plastering southern VA in this pattern.

The h5 is swinging too far south. I doubt it gets much further north. You can ignore me but I’m not liking the trend south on 5 consecutive eps runs now. We’re out of any wiggle room. There are too many southern misses for my liking in the 18z eps members.

We can get a pretty good event with an extremely -AO so long as there isn’t a too suppressive NAO block. So it will depend on details we can’t see yet. But it’s good.

After a brief flirtation with merely slightly negative the troposphere NAM tanks again by February 10. It’s becoming clear we will go wall to wall -AO this year.

If the storm is amplifying and gaining latitude the northern extent of heavy snow will always be under represented. This doesn’t work if a storm is shearing out or sinking south/not gaining latitude. But with an amplified wave gaining latitude always adjust the northern edge north at the end.

That 2016 storm was too stressful. It locked in way too soon which meant 8 days of model runs worrying was the rug getting pulled. I’d rather something we’re keeping an eye on trend better closer in. But guidance has become really good inside day 5 now. Not saying things don’t shift and details don’t change but if something doesn’t at least look promising at day 5 it’s harder for it to become a hecs then in the past.

Trying to remember when the euro locked in on that March 2018 storm.

Yes please No bamwx tweet for that run????

March forth with confidence

What’s it start with

Euro saw the storm as soon as it came in day 10 range. It was iffy on temps for a couple runs though. But it was pretty locked in on the general setup and track from day 10 all the way in. Had one hiccup run that gave us northerners a scare but that was it.

Next maybe your posts...

@Ji you know there are always things that could go wrong. I guess the most obvious is the flow over the NE doesn’t relax enough and the WAA wave gets suppressed then the coastal develops too slow. Secondary development is always tricky. But this has a lot more going for it then against it. BTW word of advice. Don’t set your bar at hecs. But also when evaluating the setup each run weight the guidance according to their results and performance. Euro/Eps is the baseline. Then adjust using other guidance but don’t over weight the gfs. It shouldn’t get any more weight (frankly less) that most of the other ancillary guidance available. We way over weight it because of its prevalence.

No so if we fail you should definitely be sacrificed

Sorry I can break it down This Run Eased Nearer Direction

Trend

Anyone curious what I thought of the gfs

Trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend

what did I miss? @Ji that’s the toll that must be paid. To get a big amplification we need the blocking to relax but that means the wave isn’t going to get trapped as a 50/50 and the next wave is likely a cutter. If we’re lucky we get enough CAD to avoid a total washout. Maybe if it comes out in weaker pieces... The blocking looks to reload pretty quickly after.

There is a lot more that could go right

2016 was the last time we saw this level of agreement in the eps at this range. Even the control looks like a carbon copy wrt axis of snow as the eps mean. Uncanny

It is...if we assume there is NO further south adjustment. That’s very possible we’re about the range the euro locked into roughly the final outcome for the last few waves. And there are reasons this won’t be as suppressed. Frankly Thursday wouldn’t have been if not for some really bad luck wrt timing those 2 discreet vorts in front and on top. We see no such countermanding features this time. But it’s hard to ignore the seasonal trend. That and this is just my jam. Fear the fringe!

Optimist me: these might be the two most beautiful post 100 ensemble progs I’ve ever seen!

They look slightly south of where I would want them. 0z was PERFECT. 12z ticked slightly south again. Don’t get me wrong they look AMAZING but the northern part of the forum (Baltimore Northwest) is running out of wiggle room for any future adjustments south. That said we’re about the range guidance has been locking on here so maybe this was the last of the bumps south.