psuhoffman

Boxing Day was a miller A it simply screwed us. You could make a (weak) argument it was hybrid because of the phase interaction with a NS wave but the real issue Imo was a weak wave that came across right in front that originally shunted the gulf wave to the south then the flow relaxed and it bombed due north but too late for us. WRT miller Bs you will always see some screw jobs in any analog list because frankly the difference between a big hit and a close miss is really minor on a pattern scale. If you go through some of the near misses and just look at h5 you can’t tell the difference from some of our HECS storms. I played that game once to prove a point. It’s hard to tell apart the screw jobs from the hecs at h5. That’s what makes them screw jobs. They had huge potential but didn’t perform. We will always be at risk of that from range. Especially given our southwest most locations of the northeast hecs zone. We need everything to come together the fastest. A late phase. A suppressed STJ so the storm has to develop a precip shield late. A messy transfer. A west primary that holds too long. They all can get their act together in time the further northeast you go but any of those factors kills us. We are always playing with fire here in ANY big coastal setup no matter how good it looks at range. Jan 2005 looked like a 2 foot DC hecs from 5 days then the stj got shunted southeast and it became all NS. Just this December every global was saying 12”+ for a while then the mid level issues appeared. The only totally safe setup here is a WAA wave with a cold high in front. And we kinda have that here except the wave is actually shearing out again as it moves east so we become dependent on the coastal for a lot of the snow. That’s a boom but also bust scenario. Right now I favor boom but bust is always lurking to set @Ji off!

That list looked like that 5 days before 2016 also. Obviously minus 2016 lol. Only other time they looked close to that good.

#1 is uninspiring. The rest though!!!!!! wrt the 2015 top analog. That system was a close match wrt h5 but it had absolutely no southern stream interaction unlike this setup which is a major difference. It was a pure NS miller B. There also was not even close to the same blocking leading up to that. It was all pac driven. I would this this setup is more favorable wrt the progression getting to that end result there. On the other hand if I’m being totally forthcoming the setup is slightly less favorable due to the initial wave coming across further north, then those other analogs like 2016/1996/1983. So I think expectations should be kept under hecs but that shows there is huge upside here and at the least a very good storm is possible if not likely.

The CIPS analogs have almost every HECS. What’s impressive is they are based on the gfs ensemble. So obviously their indicating the gfs is a “but off” right now.

I think you're short changing DC a bit...yes with a tuck along the coast like that 95 could get mixy...but even the cities would get a LOT of snow before any flip in that scenario. Maybe not 20"+ like west of the fall line but...10+" is a HUGE storm by DC standards. The rain/snow line is starting off down near the NC/VA border with this one.

@stormtracker remember when I said I didn't buy the thermals on the GGEM and ICON. The euro has a track INSIDE both of those runs yet stays all snow in DC. It's close of course...but I trust the euro thermal representation MUCH more then the GGEM and ICON at that range. That was why I was saying those runs were pretty good.

Please cite where you made ANY prediction at all

Cmc

if the primary hangs on too long that's a bigger problem for places southeast of 95

Along 95 mixes with sleet for a good while...but even that I am somewhat skeptical...it secondaries to the outer banks and tracks up off the coast and stalls for 12 hours just east of Ocean City while it tracks the upper energy right over us. History suggests that works out pretty good. The one factor muting the outcome somewhat on the CMC is the coastal takes its time really getting going. But amp that up SLIGHTLY...say one more bump like this was from 0z and we end up with a very nice outcome.

I would but they aren't updated yet...WXBELL takes FOREVER to update the CMC . By the time they do I have usually moved on to other things lol

CMC is a nice hit IMO. 95 mixes with sleet for a while but gets a nice WAA thump and then some CCB love on the back end. Definitely an improvement over 0z

yes but it has a much better secondary to the outer banks v to the delmarva last run. But yea the pesky primary hanging on about 6 hours too long is making this more difficult then it needs to be lol.

Do you find it odd that even with an incredibly far north primary and transfer...the other guidance still tries to put down some wrap around precip with the ULL in our area. What's odd about that imo is it kind of suggests the upper level track supports the euro idea of a further south secondary. The other guidance looks as if it runs the lead wave out ahead of the upper support and never recovers. Not saying that can't happen...we do love a good fail around here.

from the precip plots that update to 120 hrs the CMC is a pretty good WAA thump for DC and points southeast...then the coastal takes over south of GFS but doesn't really get going like the euro...its weak and diffuse...95 west stays sleet with the somewhat weak CCB precip, a line from Ji to me west stays snow...its hard to tell what the results are until qpf because the western areas obviously get all snow and better ratios but the heaviest precip with the WAA wave is further southeast.

I don’t buy the icon thermals. Low tracks from outer banks to 50 miles east of OC then due north to cape map before fading NE. That’s a good track this time of year for anyone 95 west.

No there would be another 6 hours of goods for the majority cluster with lows tucked off Delmarva. You can likely add another 1-3” to the mean snowfall south to north starting at EZF.

That and it’s 18z so they are also skewed by those suppressed members where by then it’s sunny and 42 degrees because suppressed or not the cold gets scoured by the ridging ahead of the wave and only floods back in if it amplified. So those weak OTS members are also likely pretty warm at 1pm. Add in they are low resolution so likely a bit too warm across the members with a storm also. I would worry way more about the h5 and surface mslp then the surface temp mean at that range.

That track is freaking perfect for a classic snowstorm. If a low tracking over VA beach and tucked in just east of the VA capes doesn’t work on Feb 1...

Yes, I think some were rooting for that ridge to pump more but that doesn’t work when it’s centered east like that. There isn’t enough space for the wave to dig, amplify, and turn the corner and lift. It’s unlikely to gain much latitude once the secondary forms and gets captured. If it digs too much it won’t recover. We’re so used to wanting things to dig more but this is a case where imo were better off with less ridge and less digging. Let the h5 feature slide ESE and capture the secondary off the VA capes not down off NC. EPS likes that option.

EPS is still more important at this range. Still outside 100 hours.

You’re being optimistic? What is happening.

EPS is worthy of tears. It’s beautiful. Makes that op run a little easier to take. But given a few factors, seasonal trend, the location of the upper level ridge in Canada and the associated flow over New England and the fact the western ridge is centered east of the Rockies...I am more worried about suppressed then a cutter as a total fail here. Suppressed might not necessarily mean it all stays south...could do a split like this storm yesterday where the WAA associated wave gets suppressed south and a northern feature kinda weakly meanders to our NW and we barely get any precip. But the issue with that kind of outcome is still suppression because imo with the cold, the high location, and the flow to our north even an amplifying wave that tries to cut would give us a nice warning level thump snow. The only path to a fail I see is if the storm starts to get suppressed by the flow (like everything else lately) and can’t amplify to the coast. So I’m definitely not tossing any towel, it’s a good setup, but I don’t like seeing the best operational trend towards my fail option. Btw it’s really rare lately for the ensembles (gefs or eps) to disagree so strongly with the op in the day 4-6 range anymore. I’ve noted that in recent years they’ve become mostly a “yea that” chorus of affirmation. I have no idea why they seem to align with the op more frequently. Maybe the ops are better and have less hiccup runs anymore. Obviously they can be wrong but not in ways inconsistent with their own physics so the ensembles can’t see that error either. Interesting that this run the eps diverged so strongly from the op. The optimist in me wants to believe the op was just a hiccup.

Btw we don’t want the ridge out west pumping more. It’s too Far East and positively tilted. The more that pumps the more pressure to dig the trough into the southeast it exerts. We don’t want that. There is too much blocking for that. We want the h5 to track ESE across VA not dive SE into NC! We have a beautiful wave that is blocked from lifting we don’t want it to dig and get squashed in the flow. We want it to slide more east and develop the low off the mid Atlantic not the southeast.

I was worried about that trend BEFORE this run but no one wanted to listen because the run showed 40”. I said yea but now we are one more adjustment exactly like the last 3 runs from a suppressed solution but everyone was sure the south trend would magically stop now that they were in the bullseye. Look maybe this was a bad run. EPS not out yet. Maybe euro over corrected. Maybe this time we get a compromise. It’s not 100%. But that h5 low was shifting south consistently too much every run for me to be comfortable given the seasonal trend for storms that were cutters day 8 to end up suppressed waves that can’t even get much precip to us.