psuhoffman

no..true it was north then south then north and now south again...but we are getting closer now...its one thing to be jumpy at 150 hours...but this is now 5 consecutive runs it has trended south. The bigger issue is it aligns with what I always thought was the bigger threat...that the flow to the northeast would suppress. I never for a second bought or worried at all about the runs that were north. The pattern doesn't fit that. But I am open to being convinced I am just being paranoid and this euro run was garbage and it will correct back north. lol

Even the Navgem looks like THIS... Maybe it was just one hiccup but the trend is VERY disturbing. And not just for me. Like I said after the last run...I am one more adjustment of the exact same maginitued of the last 4 runs from being on the outside looking in....well that is now Baltimore, Columbia, Leesburg...one more after that and its DC... are we sure the south trend is over? That wave over New England squashing the flow in front keeps trending south every run! So part of me says....ok EVERYTHING else is north even the typically super suppressed NAVGEM, it was just a bad run. But on the other hand...this...is hard to ignore

The rest of the 0z guidance looked so good then the euro ruins my night. Lol

It’s a 12-15” snowstorm in DC proper. Yes with a period of mix/rain. But why is the period of mix getting as much attention as the 15” of snow?????

DC loses about .35 to mix/rain on the UK. Still gets 1.2 qpf as snow

@yoda on the 10-1 map DC is 12” but the first part of the waa and the deform world be high ratios so that looks like 12-15” to me These are all 10-1 and I would adjust up. Deform will have high ratios as depicted so would the first part of the WAA IAD 16” Leesburg 17” BWI 13” winchester 13” Westninster 17” Mappy 20” EZF 11” Frederick 13” Towson 17” Columbia 15”

Look at the icon and Ukmet...even the gfs somewhat. We can ALL win with a more amplified solution so long as we can stomach a few hours of sleet or drizzle.

Ukmet is a great run. DC about 5” from the WAA thump them dryslot and some light mix then about .7 qpf as snow from the deform. That would probably be another 8-10” or so. N VA through Central MD jacks. Likely some 20” totals there.

The northern guidance came south. The southern guidance came north some. I’d like the euro tonight to look more like the NAM/rgem/icon/gfs/Ukmet then the ggem and para.

The gfs thermals are awful. Adjust

@frd eps isn’t warm Imo that look is going to press the cold and suppress the SE ridge. There is no way we are very warm for long with that look. We will want the boundary not far to our south otherwise that would be a cold dry look.

Gefs improved again. Honestly the gefs is slightly better then the eps now imo. Lol. CCBs the whole region Monday into Monday Night. ETA: if you adjust for their atrocious thermals. But that’s a given.

Yuck. It’s not that it’s north it’s late. Doesn’t get the coastal going until too late for us. Luckily the rgem doesn’t agree.

It has a progressive bias with the features in the PAC that will be critical to our storm. It’s slowly correcting less progressive each run.

Ignore it. Seriously. Unless the other better guidance goes that way...and even then I’d only buy it because they did. The gfs has been adding more confusion and noise then clarity for a while. Btw just saw the end of the rgem. Do people realize how good that was about to get. The ccb is exploding right over us and there is a lot of energy still to roll through. That was about to get GOOD.

What’s that word again?

N VA gets 10-12” lol

Agree. Wrt 2010 it was after the initial WAA precip during the lull before the coastal ccb blew up. Just a few sleet showers during the lull. It’s not so much south as suppressed. But the two correlate. I want an amped up STORM!!! Heavy precip. Big totals somewhere. Death bands to analyze. Even if this amps up too much and we flip we would get a heavy WAA thump first because to displace the locked in cold would take some impressive WAA. So it wouldn’t be a non event. This is preference but I would take a more dynamic event and risk mixing over a weaker mundane event. That’s the rgem. It uses the rgem to 48 then ggem after. It never changed when the rgem extended to 84.

Very very true.

Exactly. It’s typical to mix during the dry slot because the dry slot typically corresponds to the mid level warning cutting off the intense WAA lift and with less intense precip you can’t mix out the warm pockets. That’s typical. It’s different from a solution that shows a legit flip during the heavy WAA precip or a track so far north we miss the deform on the back.

Nam is likely too north with that feature but even if that’s the case look at the mid level winds and h5 track. That’s the northern extent you’re looking at there and it’s about to pivot back southeast. Look at the last 2 frames you can see it happening in WV.

Even that gfs gave us 4-8” from the wrap around from DC north so... looking at the fgen and 850 winds at 84 hrs and seeing that band running along the PA line back into WV starting to pivot and develop south in WV in response to the upper level low catching up...I think that was going to pivot slowly across N VA and MD in the next 12 hours had that run continued.

I’m telling you I’ve noticed that any run that shows mixing and people freak out. I got several hours of sleet near IAD in 96. It sleeted into PA in 2003. I got some sleet up here during the psuhoffman storm and briefly during the Feb 11 2010 hecs and for a bit during the 15” March 2018 storm. I loved every one of them. People need to get over seeing a panel with non blue over them during a storm. At least not to the point they ignore the bigger picture.

5” on the ground then some sleet and that was about to crash and start dumping again as the slp was captured and tucking and the h5 was very amplified and about to pass into VA. The ccb was about to light up

That was going to end very well imo. The h5 was just about to pass under us and you can see hints of the precip breaking out in response. DC was going to get more snow after that run ended. It’s depressing looking because the run ended right before the ccb exploded. That upper low and surface position there remind me of the lull in the Feb 11 2010 storm when everyone was freaking out then the upper level low caught up and boom. More amplified also means a nicer front end thump and I’m not that worried about temps it’s truly cold to start. The high res models are picking up on that. I doubt the gfs mid to upper 30s nonsense. Might mix with sleet but so what.