psuhoffman

The gfs has been having some rough times lately.

Geps was almost a full cave to eps. It does drive the primary slightly further north but otherwise it’s pretty much gone to the euro.

Cmc

That dosent even sound like you lol HECS storms are 90% confined to El Niño’s for a reason. A 5-10” storm in a Nina is good. Doesn’t mean we can’t do better. 96 happened. 2006 came really close...I guess some isolated spots in MD did get 20” so for them that’s HECS level. But I guess my expectations this year are muted. Have to factor in the background state we’re trying to overcome. I do think the euro is more right here. But I guess I also expect it to come down to earth some. Maybe like a 60/40 compromise between the euro and other guidance. That’s still a pretty damn good storm. And if the euro caves and we get a 5-10” storm...that’s not the worst thing in the world.

Oh hell ya. Im good with a 5-10” event. But it has potential for more. So I’ll root for the euro but frankly every run tonight has been acceptable.

Looking at each individual panel of the ukmet it looks meh. Weak sauce. But it does snow on us for a long time so it adds up. We do dry slot/mix for about 12 hours also.

I guess the UK isn’t as bad as I thought but it kind of nickel and dimes it’s way to these totals over 48 hours and maybe the wrap around added up more then I thought but it was a lot of light stuff.

Uk no bueno. First really bad run tonight Imo. Weak sauce with the WAA. Drives the primary north. Weak sauce and north with the CCB. Diffuse mess of a coastal. ETA: not as bad as I thought when adding it all up. But like 48 hours of mostly light precip.

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Gefs is SLOWLY caving Imo

Just need the Cmc to capture slightly further south and amp up a little more and it’s the euro.

@stormtracker

Cmc not a full cave to the euro but definitely moved most of the way that direction.

Y’all gonna like the Cmc

Patience grasshopper

Read my post to high risk. Imo it’s in how they handle the h5 as it enters the Midwest and starts to feel the effects of the flow to the northeast. My money is on the euro. Not just because it’s has superior physics but it makes more sense Imo.

It got a little better this run but yea. The gfs and euro seriously diverge when the upper low gets to MO and starts to feel the effects of the blocked flow to the northeast. The gfs continues to lift the wave right into the suppressive flow and so it then opens up and it becomes a diffuse mess before eventually being forced southeast. Euro turns SE from MO and amplified the h5 right to the coast. The other globals are somewhere in between with that.

Secondary track is perfect. The reason it’s not the euro is the primary gains too much latitude before the transfer and the h5 instead of digging and amplifying in phase with the secondary opens up as it approaches. In other words it’s a messy transfer. Fix that and it’s a euro like solution.

Not just me specifically those are the biggest storms to affect our region as a whole the last 30 years. However...the Delmarva and southeast VA are a different climo zone when it comes to snow. They can do “ok” when DC and Balt and places west get a HECS but honestly for you to “Jack” required a different type of storm usually. For Baltimore and IAD and me to be getting 20”+ usually means your mixed or dry slotting because to get that kind of moisture feed here the low is too close for you. There are some rare exceptions like (ironically) PD1 and PD2 (for different reasons) but those are rare exceptions.

Anytime just drop of the check to cover the very reasonable 50 cent daily storage fee. That comes to $730.

1996 tucked 1/25/2000 tucked 2/12/2006 tucked Feb 6 2010 Tucked Feb 11 2010 tucked Feb 13 2014 Tucked 2016 Tucked Almost every one of our best snowstorms of the last 30 years was tucked in right against the Delmarva coast. The only exceptions were Dec 2009 and Feb 2003. 2009 managed that because it was a very amplified stj wave out of the gulf with an amazing moisture fetch that was 985mb over eastern NC It also had an inverted trough into WV so that combo meant an incredibly expansive heavy precip shield to the northwest of the track. It tracked NE from the outer banks. Frankly a less intense and less juiced up STJ system with that track likely doesn’t provide big totals in the NW 1/3 of our region normally. That track would usually fringe places like Winchester or Hagerstown or Frederick. PD2 was a west to east STJ wave overrunning an Arctic high. The coastal was weak sauce here and had very little contribution to that event. But the rule on an HECS here is we want the low tucked into the Delmarva coast.

Man I’m an idiot. My cache was loading yesterday’s eps. 18z looked amazing. Sorry. Still think suppression is more a risk but it’s becoming less of one. Frankly it’s hard to see how we don’t get at least a decent snow from this. Carry on.

It’s possible you dry slotted before the mid level warm intrusion in 96. But sleet did make it as far NW as IAD. The dryslot is caused by the same function as the mixing. The mid level warm intrusion also often times up with the dry slot because it signals the rapid WAA has ended (the cold has been displaced) and so you get light or no precip. Whether it’s sleet or just dry doesn’t make a difference to snow totals lol.

96 I changed to sleet all the way in Herndon. Wasn’t a big deal mostly light in the dry slot. 2016 the extreme dry slot prevented mixing since there was no precip during the mid level warm intrusion but the effect was the same, places southeast of 95 didn’t get the 30”+ totals NW did. I think your misunderstanding me. I’m not saying places like DC and Annapolis and EZF can’t get a lot of snow from a HECS where Winchester and I do. They can. But if the western end northern parts are getting big hits they are probably flirting with a dry slot and some sleet. For the deform to set up along the coastal plain (where there is no oragraphic aid also) it likely means a rapid drop off in totals NW of 95. Those are very rare but happen. The knickerbocker storm is an example. That gave DC 28” of pure snow but it wasn’t that big up here or in Winchester. Totals dropped off rapidly NW of 95. If we want a true forum wide 1 foot plus places southeast of 95 probably can’t Jack and will flirt with dry slot or mix. Otherwise the NW 1/2 of the forum will get left out. That’s simply climo on these type storms. Of course everyone should root for the most snow in their yard. If you Jack and I get 3” so be it. I won’t hate on ya. I’m just pointing out what the typical outcome is.