psuhoffman

But isn’t that expected to some degree. The best analogs to this pattern are more icy than snowy for our area. That’s why I said I’m less sure of this period. Models often adjust to the analogs of what more typically happens once inside day 7. This is not to say we won’t get snow or can’t even get the crazy amounts some runs show, but are we really expecting that when history suggests more ice and less snow is the more common outcome?

It doesn’t look that bad to me. 2 mid Atlantic snow events and ends with a crazy block. JB is just creating fake drama to get you doing exactly what you’re doing.

Yea. The most likely fail the next 2 weeks is rain. The most likely fail weeks 3-4 is dry imo.

It was a 1-2 day warm up before that next trough digs in.

I can accept this run as an appetizer before the really good pattern sets in

Storm 1 storm 2 total

I’ve never seen the mean look like that. Even after the crazy ridiculous week 2, weeks 3-4-5 are about as snowy as I’ve ever seen a 7 day mean on the weeklies. It finally breaks around March 15.

I’ve never seen this. Ever.

I’m definitely excited for the waves day 7-15 but if we’re going to have a shot at a classic coastal 12”+ snowstorm a couple days after this would be the first (but not the last) opportunity! Wave X is moving into 50/50 and wave Y is about to dig into the TN valley. Which would be around Feb 20 lol.

Bastardi probably predicted it before labor day!

We’re still missing the Nina STJ so even if we do get a more canonical coastal later in the month it might have MECS v hecs top end potential here. But that is just playing the historical odds game. A string of secs MECS level events might be a more likely max outcome from this type pattern coming up.

Agreed. I think the mean looks like that now due to a high probability of a SECS to maybe MECS level event. 2016 the mean looked that way because a decent number of members were already showing 20” outcomes. Similar look from different scenarios.

Last time was 2016

I’m good with some SER with that blocking. Yea some waves could rain but I’m tired of dry and fringed and coastal scrapers and congrats Florida. I’ll take my chances on a wet pattern with blocking and the boundary near us.

Was that you accusing me of big dog hunting about 2 hours ago?

This has some of the highest potential we’ve had in a long time because it’s already cold across the continent before the pattern starts. We’ve had some pretty good patterns over the last 8 years but that all started with some scorched antecedent airmass that took weeks to get fixed. We look to jump right into threats even before the best long wave configuration sets up this time. We could have a very extended window for snow threats. I’m starting to become more optimistic for the reasons above that we can score before the blocking fully matures. The TPV is displaced enough and we have enough cold around that this could be the exception where we don’t have to wait for the pattern to fully mature to start getting snow! I told you twice I wasn’t dismissing before Feb 20 just thought our BEST chances would come then. I was less sure based on the history of TNH patterns. But I’ll admit the pattern is progressing way ahead of schedule and the boundary looks to be setting up further south and I think we do have a better chance to score one of these waves than I initially thought.

What did you do with chuck

Welcome to the party, come inside, let me take your coat.

Feb 16-March 20

The last couple times we expected it to help it didn’t seem to do squatola. We already had one period of blocking despite the “hostile” QBO

I’ll take my chances on a repeat of Januarys pattern but in Feb/March. Probably will be wetter. Shorter wavelengths and increased heat south of the boundary will make it easier to get storms wound up also.

@CAPE I felt pretty strongly we would get one more bite at the -AO apple this season but now I’m almost ready to call go time. It’s supported by everything. Analogs. Mjo progression. Recent AO cycle behavior. Scandinavian ridge. Monster poleward EPO ridge. And now the SPV is getting obliterated and split in one of the more sudden strat developments i can remember.

Chuck will find something wrong with it.

The AI establishes the monster block by day 10 which is why the more suppressed solutions in the long range.