psuhoffman

Very very true.

Exactly. It’s typical to mix during the dry slot because the dry slot typically corresponds to the mid level warning cutting off the intense WAA lift and with less intense precip you can’t mix out the warm pockets. That’s typical. It’s different from a solution that shows a legit flip during the heavy WAA precip or a track so far north we miss the deform on the back.

Nam is likely too north with that feature but even if that’s the case look at the mid level winds and h5 track. That’s the northern extent you’re looking at there and it’s about to pivot back southeast. Look at the last 2 frames you can see it happening in WV.

Even that gfs gave us 4-8” from the wrap around from DC north so... looking at the fgen and 850 winds at 84 hrs and seeing that band running along the PA line back into WV starting to pivot and develop south in WV in response to the upper level low catching up...I think that was going to pivot slowly across N VA and MD in the next 12 hours had that run continued.

I’m telling you I’ve noticed that any run that shows mixing and people freak out. I got several hours of sleet near IAD in 96. It sleeted into PA in 2003. I got some sleet up here during the psuhoffman storm and briefly during the Feb 11 2010 hecs and for a bit during the 15” March 2018 storm. I loved every one of them. People need to get over seeing a panel with non blue over them during a storm. At least not to the point they ignore the bigger picture.

5” on the ground then some sleet and that was about to crash and start dumping again as the slp was captured and tucking and the h5 was very amplified and about to pass into VA. The ccb was about to light up

That was going to end very well imo. The h5 was just about to pass under us and you can see hints of the precip breaking out in response. DC was going to get more snow after that run ended. It’s depressing looking because the run ended right before the ccb exploded. That upper low and surface position there remind me of the lull in the Feb 11 2010 storm when everyone was freaking out then the upper level low caught up and boom. More amplified also means a nicer front end thump and I’m not that worried about temps it’s truly cold to start. The high res models are picking up on that. I doubt the gfs mid to upper 30s nonsense. Might mix with sleet but so what.

Don’t ever use gfs thermals. On second thought just don’t ever use the gfs.

I’m not predicting this continues to sink south. If I had to bet the euro is close to latching on and maybe adjusts north some at the last minute and we see the typical result and you all laugh at me. That’s the most likely outcome Imo. But I see very little chance this misses us north. There is too much cold and suppression in front of it. So I’d rather see guidance more v less amped.

If it holds yes. But let me illustrate my point so you stop thinking I’m imagining this then I’m done. Promise. I’m using the euro control because the op only runs to 90 but the op and control were very similar each run. look at the trend the last 24 hours. It’s not just south. It’s a less amplified system each run. Suppressed. Yes this run was still “good” but were losing the big upside here with a weaker wave but more troubling (because I would totally take a 6-12” storm and because I’ve always thought the flow was too suppressive to get a too north solution) it’s literally 1 more deamplification trend of the exact same amount of each of the last 4 runs from being an insignificant event up here and not that significant anywhere frankly. I’m only a few miles south of the sharp cutoff to just minor accumulations now. And that cutoff has shifted south significantly every run. Why is everyone so sure the south trend is over and 0z won’t have that northern cutoff running through Baltimore? More so any further de amplified and frankly were looking at a run of the mill snowstorm across VA and lower MD and no one is getting 1-2 feet. Is staying all snow that important that it’s worth giving up the kind of big solutions we were looking at 24 hours ago with a more amplified wave? If I was you or Frd or Richmond I would say yea. Because I don’t think an amped up tucked low works out for those spots. But DC and Baltimore peeps seem to be rooting for less amplified too. Is staying all snow worth giving up a 12-24” storm for a run of the mill 4-8” deal because thats where this could end up if the suppression trend continues.

Ugh. That’s not good for up here. I need tucked into the coast to get big totals. But I totally get why you would love that look. That’s the perfect track for you. It’s just unfortunate we don’t share the same climo on coastals. It’s almost impossible for us both to Jack from a coastal because to get the deform NW of the fall line in MD you need the low close enough that’s it’s a problem for the eastern shore.

Big decrease here

Looks a lot like the 12z op euro. Coincidentally I’m sure.

The flow is more suppressive and its mid winter not Dec. I don’t see that happening again. If we get the game time and it’s close I could see the deform setting up slightly north like often happens but it’s unlikely to shift like 100 miles it anything. I think the north bumps will be minor this time.

Yes but it’s close. Depends how suppressed the WAA wave gets. Unfortunately we’re on opposite sides here. You need the solution that would screw me lol.

I’m not freaking out yet. But I’m telling you this isn’t cutting. The flow is way too suppressive. It’s just odd because I feel like every run people are rooting for a more suppressed south solution because their focused too much on staying all snow. Yes a more amplified wave introduces mixing issue to 95. But it also introduces huge upside potential. Who cares if it mixes if you get 10-20”! A weaker less amplified wave reduces mixing but opens the door to no one getting huge totals and possibly the northern areas getting screwed. So each run I see a less amplified system I cringe while others celebrate. Lol

Maybe...but up here the coastal is even more critical because I doubt the WAA ends up being much this far north. I need that deform band to set to north because south will do a lot better from part 1. I suspect Sunday night DC could have 6-8” and I’ll be sitting on 2” of pixie dust up here waiting impatiently for that deform band to come north.

This run would crush DC. The CCB is developing right over them at 90 and pivoting. But I fear that run if continued was going to be disappointing for places north of Baltimore compared to last run. The low was suppressed pretty far SE this run. But I’d also be concerned with any further south shifts. I am not worried about north. Never have been. Never thought given the setup this could miss us north. Imo we’re either getting a big snow or it’s getting suppressed.

North of Baltimore needs the coastal. I’m pretty convinced most of the heavy WAA wave will get suppressed. It’s the same situation we’ve seen all year... that wave is weakening as it gets suppressed by the blocking. It’s got enough juice to get VA DC and lower MD good but up here I doubt we get more then a few inches from that. It’s coastal or bust.

Not sure I like the 18z euro. It’s dangerously close to missing the capture and escaping

Frankly the gfs has caved as much as I expected it too until very late. The differences left imo are from its errors with resolving the thermals and that’s not going away.

Thanks. Sometimes I get lucky and the weather cooperates with my cockamamie ideas.

It’s west of the 12z gefs. Slightly better ccb into N VA. Also...often with a capture the slp elongates with a double barrel or inverted trough type feature towards the coast. The lowest pressure might be to the east but the Max to the west is typically the one that matters. The mean can be misleading.

It will likely adjust to the euro more tucked solution thankfully