psuhoffman

I remember visiting my uncle who lived on the side of the ridge that runs along the WV VA border just south of Harpers Ferry during one of the ice storms in 1994 and sledding down the roads watch we’re impassible with the old school wood/metal sleds. We went for miles at definitely unsafe speeds.

30, freezing rain. Building up a nice protective shield on my precious now. Trees starting to make eerie “we don’t like this” noises.

Yea it’s definitely a step. Might not get all the way there this run. It was so crazy divergent it could take 2 steps and still be 50 miles north of the globals lol. But it’s a positive trend so far.

Still noticeable differences at 39. More confluence to the north. Wave less amplified and further south.

NAM 28 hours the heights are a little lower in front and the wave is further south in Texas. So a slight positive trend early.

SREF still look like poo but they are at least trending the right way.

I’ll take a blend of “NOT the F’ing NAM”

I guess it depends on the year. They have about 500 feet on me which can make a difference. And if storms track inside being further west can help. On the other hand there have been years like 2010 and 2014 where this area did better because they were too far west to Jack a few times.

You’re right. Great post! The improvements continued in front. Better confluence. High holding better. But the SW was slower and amped more so it offset those improvements.

Is that normal for up there or just a good year? I know the one coop in the area averages about what I do but they could be in a local minimum.

Looks good to me. Maybe not quite as good as 12z but has a band of 1”+ hr snow through DC at noon Thursday.

31/30. Snow has a nice ice crust right now. If I can chill around 32 all night the snow might survive. But I worried about a temp spike tomorrow before the cold comes in. It’s often not the rain that kills my pack it’s the 6 hours of warm when dewpoints spike after the storm if we get into the warm sector.

I had heard a euro upgrade was coming but I didn’t know they were making the para public. Haven’t seen it anywhere until now.

Yea I took a trip up to penn mar park on Catoctin/South Mountain today with the kids. Played in the snow. Now they have true snowpack. I was envious. At least double what I have here. More like triple.

Just imagine being in north central PA. All the globals and fringing them to the south and the NAM says they barely get any snow and are mostly ice and dryslot.

The spread is crazy though. The gfs is slightly SE of the other globals but honestly the globals on a whole are in amazing agreement. Most consensus we’ve had all season really. Then the NAM is in its own parallel universe. At 72 hours the globals have the snow/sleet line running through northern VA and near DC. The NAM has it around Binghamton. I’ve rarely seen that much divergence before. And it actually starts earlier then that. By like 48 hours you can see major differences to our west that lead to the tangent solution. It’s weird.

Hope their heat pumps are working!

Don’t short them

it is pathetic compared to the 6-12” shown on the GFS/PARA/UK/Euro/CMC. When we have a consensus across ALL guidance for a bigger event I don’t think there is anything wrong with setting the bar higher. But you NEVER hear me complain during an event. If we only get a few inches so be it. But we can and should aim higher here.

Don’t look now but if the globals are right it’s not that far from a mostly (or dare we dream all) snow solution now. One or two more adjustments south and it is. I’m not sure we even want that though. This is the type of storm where the max accumulations and impact will be places right along and just into the mix zone that get the initial thump then some sleet. The all snow zone will likely feature slightly lighter accumulations.

There is nothing more I need to see from the globals. They are all close to showing max potential inside 72 hours. At this point I just want to see the NAM cave. Totally fully and completely cave and spit out some NAMd worthy 15” solution. Yea it’s (and it’s idiotic SREF friends) probably wrong but I want that option off the table because probably isn’t definitely and snow is serious business

Gefs 24 hour trend

It was only like 2 people canceling winter after this week and one was Ji who should count as -1.

Yea I didn’t want to throw that part in because I know there are parts of this sub that haven’t had much snow. But I’ve had plenty of ho hum minor snowfalls lately. I want something dynamic.

This. This will very likely trend north the last 48 hours. We want to get it as far south as we can now. I wouldn’t mind one more south jump tonight before the likely bleed north on guidance starts once the wave tonight gets out of the way.