psuhoffman

Not a total bust but I think for DC we can say most of the coastal effects will be northeast

This setup is kind of counter intuitive Imo. Here was/is my thinking. About a week ago Ji asked me what the fail option was. I said a split where the primary gets too squashed and the WAA gets suppressed south then the coastal is late and north. We almost got that. This was pretty close to the worst case scenario. Imo had the primary been LESS suppressed and still amped up instead of deamplifying as it crosses the Ohio valley we would be getting a better WAA thump snow today. Maybe 6-10” v 3-6”. That may not have done us any good on the coastal but even though the stronger primary would have driven some warmer air in tonight I also think the more amped solution may have triggered a faster secondary cyclogenesis. One reason this ends up too late (other then the not ideal ridge axis out west) is the trough starts to open up and deamplify and tilt positive in the Midwest as it approaches and feels the effects of the suppressive flow in New England. That flow is moving out but it does the damage. The trough recovers and re amplifies a little too late for us. This is all a balance and tricky because if the suppression relaxes too much the whole thing could cut. But given the setup even that would have been a pretty dynamic 6-10” thump snow to ice to dryslot imo and I’ll take that over 4-8” of light snow over 3 days anytime!!! That’s just my preference though. Overall i saw more ways to possibly win and less chance at a total fail with an amplifying wave v a suppressed one. I don’t think more suppression would have helped with what imo did us in which was a combo of the wave coming across west to east a slightly too much latitude and a not ideal ridge axis out west.

Again and I’ll die on this hill, we got plenty of suppression. The primary is moving due east across the country unable to gain latitude. We can’t do anything about the fact that it came in pretty far north out west. That was always going to be an issue. But the primary is forced due east and transfers to the outer banks! That’s all we can ask for from “suppression”. It’s snowing into southern VA today! The issue is the wave is coming across at a high latitude starting out and the ridge out west is slightly east of where we want. The result is the major amplification and phase that happens is too late. It swings slightly too east before it captures. What would a more suppressive flow done to this scenario? So even more suppression and the wave would be shearing out even more on approach and we likely get even less today from WAA. And I doubt it even helps with the coastal as it would likely swing even further out before amplifying and miss everyone. We needed the trough to amplify in the east a little sooner/further west. That’s all. We got all the suppression we needed unless you wanted to see another weak wave over NC today.

Good news is the pattern next week looks even better wrt that issue. The next trough amplification looks to happen just to our west which is where we want if we have this kind of blocking

I know it’s half joking but last time I’m gonna say this. It snowed today almost to the NC/VA border. We got plenty of suppression. In the end the western ridge axis was just a little too Far East (and we kinda knew that but sometimes you can overcome it) and so the major amplification of the trough happens SLIGHTLY too late for us. Suppression wouldn’t have helped at all. It would have hurt the WAA snow today and probably made the coastal develop further east and miss everyone. We simply needed the trough axis to go negative a little sooner or further west.

Euro kinda just took a dump on my area. Saw it coming. Was shifting the deform band a little northeast every run and finally pretty much took it away completely. Does swing that band through Tuesday but on the EDGE so even a 10 mile adjustment east with that and the coastal is pretty much a total bust even up here. Oh well it happens. Still close...if it corrects back 30 miles suddenly It’s on again but these last minute miller b trends don’t seem to reverse that often.

Take care, please. All that stuff is more important then snow. PS: as long as it snows!

Don’t say that...if the coastal craps out it’s not so bad for south of me. They get 4-8” from the WAA but almost all my snow has to be from the corral. I’m getting fringed by the WAA

28/20 no wind at all. It’s too cloudy to see but the real problem is there must be one of those little prop planes they send up from Westminster circling around over head and whoever is flying that thing has the worst case of dandruff I’ve ever seen. It’s disgusting. Getting all over everything.

Thanks for converging 3 zones literally at my house! Awesome It’s like a choose your own adventure for me.

NAVGEM and JMA ccb DC north. Really odd that most of the globals and the 2 Canadian meso's get some CCB down here...while all the NCEP run meso models, HRRR/NAMs/ARW/NMM all are not even close and stall the low much further north.

yea that stall and wrapping banding across northern MD for days is great and all...and sometimes it doesn't take much QPF to rack up totals in those bands...fluff...but its risky relying on that...some of that is still 60 hours away and if you take out that last band that wraps through MD really doesn't get a whole lot from the coastal.

A lot of guidance is trending towards pinwheeling the low around on Tuesday and swinging snow back through the area north of DC. Have to see if that is real...and if we can get it to happen maybe a bit further south.

bunnies everywhere beware

I am hugging the HRDPS big time

What are you looking at? It gives DC about 8-10" south to north across the district.

GFS has trended southwest with the coastal low capture/stall the last several runs...but without having much impact on the CCB frustratingly lol. But again its super close for DC...this run the capture and tuck happens right at OC which is exactly the latitude that puts DC on the edge for getting into the CCB.

Icon snows into Tuesday night lol

In fairness (dunno until the qpf comes out) I don’t think the rgem is bad it’s just the trend. Big step back from last 2 runs.

Hug the icon.

I know you’re kidding but that wouldn’t help. That’s the last thing we need. That would squash the WAA wave and still wouldn’t help with the coastal. Might even make it phase and amplify slower and end up OTS for everyone. Our problems lie in the typical miller b transfer problems.

Ehh rgem isn’t the NAM but it shifted the ccb northeast quite a bit. Still decent DC northeast but not close to the last few and the trend is troubling.

Rgem still looks better then the nams at 24 hrs. Can already tell it isn’t blasting that dry slot as far north. Too soon on the ccb yet.

I was strictly talking about the slp track

Yes...but sometimes that actually does happen and it’s not a model feedback error. But it can be, especially on the mesos with this type of setup.