psuhoffman

Problem is the NAM has the ability to see the mid level warm layers the globals don’t. The other problem is with the screaming SW jet it kinda makes sense! It’s why I was hesitant to get excited about this setup. So yea maybe it’s wrong but it’s worrying Imo. ETA: would still be a high impact ice event. I have absolutely 0 interest in that though.

NAM is a disaster still. And it’s still trending worse with the 700 mb warm layer. It’s amazing how far apart the high res models are from the globals. It’s not just the NAM btw. I know it’s way early but I took a peek at the HRWs and they are all exactly like the NAM. Directing the initial wave up into NW PA nowhere near us with any snow. The high res are laughing at the globals saying we won’t even be within 100 miles of an inch of snow.

It’s early but I can already tell the NAM is going to be way NW of all the globals. Way more amped up and it’s directing the lead wave of energy to our NW

You all can pretend it doesn’t matter but it Sure would be nice to get the NAM on board here soon!

I think the 8th Amendment guarantees it has too. This isn’t like when things looked good at long range and started slowly degrading as we got closer. This time (with these trends inside 72 hours across ALL major guidance) a rug pull would be cruel and unusual punishment! EPS GEFS GEPS

This ones just for fun

See I’ll post a positive one of those too. I’m not actually a deb it’s not my fault those trends have all been bad this year until now.

@leesburg 04

Yes. The pac is finally hot garbage after this week. Luckily it waited until the part of winter when the pac matters the least. Still if it’s going to be that awful we will need the NAO to offset.

Welcome! West based is better. East based can work but it’s less a sure thing. It’s also not static. It will shift around.

A -pna -NAO is actually a really good pattern in March. A lot of our March snows featured that look.

Let me know when to start worrying about suppression. Lol

I said WTH I’ll buy in. Why not. Aren’t we due something to break our way? There is a lot flawed with this setup but one thing we do have is legit cold ahead of it. A lot of the fails recently can be attributed to the lack of that ingredient.

It’s snow or sleet. There is a 6 hour period with extremely heavy precip from DC to the PA line and it keeps flipping back and forth and has areas of snow south of areas of sleet. Indicative of a small warm layer that might be overcome by rates. But that 6 hour period is the difference between a minor v major event wrt snow accumulations. It would be high impact either way with ice.

Cmc has some very heavy banding aimed right at DC then too. It’s very questionable if it’s snow/sleet. Flips back and forth for a few hours in the precip type plots. Nothing else updated yet.

Cmc looks to have a decent thump snow to ice event from the precip plots that updated.

Sold let’s go with that.

It has a mid level warm layer screaming in way ahead of the system. Wish I could make a good argument against that but I can’t.

The flow to our north is a little more blocked for that storm at 330. Not perfect, -NAO is east based and the 50/50 is a bit north but still there is some mechanism to suppress. This week we are relying on a dying tpv as it gets absorbed into the flow to temporarily knock down heights and create suppression. But once that feature abates there is nothing to stop it from cutting. Our only path to keeping the low to our south is of it gets suppressed enough early on to get it under us then it can lift north once to the coast. But once the influence of that tpv feature relaxes it likely will lift north pretty drastically. The trough axis is amplified pretty far west with no blocking.

Obviously this is not happening exactly this way....but it illustrates that any of those waves in the long range is a threat to get suppressed so long as we have blocking this time of year.

The dryslot part always works out. The thump though...

I haven’t missed this lately

That’s very true but it only works to a degree. First of all the gfs is awful with surface CAD so whatever warming we get from the heavier rain is likely offset by the fact the gfs is probably running a couple degrees too warm if it’s right about everything else. Also if it’s mid 20s or colder some if not most of that will freeze. It was pouring rain a few times in 1994 and accumulated ice. But the key is it was 25 not 30 degrees. Even if not all of the rain there freezes that would be a major ice event as shown Imo.

If the 50/50 is a little slower to move out, and with the NAO going negative again it could be, that could trend south.

That’s the sneaky wave I keep saying don’t sleep on.