psuhoffman

Jokes aside I can’t really look right now but I care more about the trend then verbatim what it shows. The last few runs went from a snowstorm to some snow to mix to rain for us. Did that reverse or is it still trending warmer?

Is it close to being close to being close to snow? Or is it only close to close to close to close to maybe kinda being close?

The problem with your "BIG SNOWSTORMS" correlation is that a 20" or even a 12" snowstorm in Baltimore is too rare an occurrence to be able to find those kinds of correlations. There aren't enough of them to see meaningful trends. The one meaningful trend is they mostly happen during a moderate or stronger Nino with a -NAO. That is a meaningful trend. If we lower the bar to 10" which is still a VERY significant snowfall and rare in Baltimore...the randomness is apparent. From 1958 to 1967 Baltimore had 7 such 10" snowstorms. In the next 10 years they had NONE. How is there a trend there? Baltimore had 3 of them in 1987 and only 1 the rest of that decade! They had 2 in 1996 and only 1 the rest of that decade! More recently Baltimore had 3 in one year in 2010 and none in the 3 years before and after that then 2 in 3 years from 2014-2016 and none since. It is totally random. You have to manipulate the data into very specific and rare and arbitrary numbers like "exactly this many inches at this exact location" to find correlations and those correlations are meaningless because snowfall is too fluky locally for such a specific thing to have meaning. And 10" is still honestly too rare an event to get meaningful data. If we do what Wes did for DC and lower the bar to 8" at Baltimore, which is still a very rare event that does not happen most winters, we get enough snowfalls to really see "trends". But there are none. in 10 years from 1958 to 1967 Baltimore had 17 8" snowstorms The next 10 years they had just 1. THen in 1978/79 they had 2 and the next 7 only 1. 1987/88 they had 4 then the next 7 only 1. 1996 they had 3 then the next 3 years none. From 2000 to 2016 there were 9 spread out pretty well...but then NONE since. You have at times focused in on too narrow of a window to find a false signal. If you only looked at the 2000 to 2016 period there seemed to be some regularity to our snowfall but when you pull back you see that was just a random short term coincidence in the longer term randomness. I have run the numbers...there is no predictability of snowfall based on recent history of past years.

I am not wasting my time digging into it but the UK on Pivotal counts freezing rain as snow. So all it has to be is cold by a few degrees over the other guidance to make that map happen. If it does actually show SNOW then its a divergent solution. Either way unless some other guidance jumps on board its not worth close examination. Any one model all by itself is going to be wrong 90% of the time.

I don't know if you are just screwing around with Maestro or not...I sometimes suck at picking up on that stuff... but this is not an accurate representation. 2010 was scorching...truly epically hot summer. 1999 and 1988 were above average but nothing spectacular, 1987 was hotter then 1988 for instance. 1966 and 1977 were about average. and 1922, 33, 44, and 55 were below average summers.

Excellent model. You should totally hold your breath for that!

You have to show the causality. What about years that end in 1 affects the weather?

@CAPE @Bob Chill this would lead to a workable look in March. Our pac issues can more easily be overcome with some blocking in March with shorter wavelengths. That’s why Nina’s (even more hostile ones) in general lose their correlation to warm/lack of snow in March. It’s not a guarantee. They don’t all end up producing but enough did that it’s obviously not wise to assume it’s over. Btw the top pattern analog that’s been showing up over and over lately is early March 1956. That pattern did turn cold and snowy later that month. But people in here would probably still complain because it was a general 3-8” snowfall across our area and 2 feet up near NYC so I know how that would go. We wouldn’t enjoy our 5” because we would be envious of the 20” to our north.

Fringed

When there is no blocking (right now there isn’t) they are. They press the cold too much. This winter most of the time they were too far north with the boundary from long range. But DC had a few perfect track rain due to boundary temps and a few systems sheared out totally. And yes a couple did track slightly too far north but that wasn’t the primary problem until this week imo.

We are getting into range where the errors we need are becoming less likely. Not impossible but it’s becoming a long shot.

We got a nice storm on the front end as the tpv rotated in. You and me got 6” and the cities rain from a perfect track coastal lol.

We’re living in a simulation so

on a more specific level wave spacing didn’t go our way either. The wave that popped up Monday prevented the cold from pressing behind this weekends wave. It ends up being one long wave train from Saturday to Tuesday with the front stalled to our NW. very very different then if the high had come over the top behind the wave Saturday (when there was no Monday wave). Then the spacing is too great between Monday/Tuesday and the Thursday/Friday wave. With the TPV gone and the NAO gone we needed good wave spacing to work. It’s not like that was impossible or dire we had good cold around to our NW and we’ve seen that work with some luck but we didn’t get any. Sounds too familial.

Actually from 2 weeks away they were just off by about 100-150 miles. Just to our NW is going to get crushed this week by several waves of frozen. The guidance was too far SE with that boundary but the error was well within what we should expect from those ranges. Once it got within the magic day 5 where details start to show it became apparent we were on the wrong side. If we want to parse why the guidance from range didn’t retrograde and break the block as fast which had the TPV and boundary pressed further east. But it’s a minor error that’s going to happen all the time at that range. It could have shifted equally the other way and pulled what it did in Dec 2016 when a similar look showed 35” from day 7 and became cold and dry with weak waves suppressed south of us. Both are equally likely and equally minor errors for long range. The problem imo is us pretending we have the ability to pin down the exact track of synoptic systems from range. Truth is there is only typically a snow “win” zone of about 100 miles with any synoptic system but from day 7 there is a typical error of hundreds of miles. So under no pattern or setup should we ever be confident in a snowfall from that range.

We’re discussing numerology. What do you think?

@Maestrobjwa correlation and causality are not the same. Correlations can be due to random chaos and when there is no logical possible link to causality that is usually the best explanation.

For you sanity’s sake I really hope this was a joke post

I think we’re splitting hairs. There are some Nina characteristics but also some not. The pac currently is a mix match or some good and some bad features. Like we’ve pointed out in about 10 days it looks like a totally canonical Nina. But it’s been a Nina all winter so.... Also I don’t think we can attribute the pac ridge to Nina when it’s been there for years including 2 ninos! I think that’s a permanent pac base state due to warmer SSTs now. I think that’s going to be there to some degree ALL THE TIME regardless of enso until the whole pac and IO SST non tropical base state changes. The last 4 enso events didn’t produce a typical response. I don’t think enso is driving the bus.

@Wentzadelphia so we got what you wanted with Tuesday now going way to our west so why is Thursday still degrading across guidance also??????

According to @Wentzadelphia that’s good for Thursday right. RIGHT???

No snow hates us

Honestly the Geps GEFS and eps all look about the same now.

Atlantic could offset the pac in March but ATT guidance hints the next -NAO is very east based. Meanwhile the pac degrades into a true dumpster fire look in about a week. So I’m not sure that equation will work. But it’s close enough not to shut out the lights.

@CAPE ironically the pac becomes more a dumpster fire in a week just as we get the Atlantic side back to a favorable look. Lol