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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
    NAVGEM and JMA ccb DC north. Really odd that most of the globals and the 2 Canadian meso's get some CCB down here...while all the NCEP run meso models, HRRR/NAMs/ARW/NMM all are not even close and stall the low much further north.
  2. psuhoffman
    yea that stall and wrapping banding across northern MD for days is great and all...and sometimes it doesn't take much QPF to rack up totals in those bands...fluff...but its risky relying on that...some of that is still 60 hours away and if you take out that last band that wraps through MD really doesn't get a whole lot from the coastal.
  3. psuhoffman
    A lot of guidance is trending towards pinwheeling the low around on Tuesday and swinging snow back through the area north of DC. Have to see if that is real...and if we can get it to happen maybe a bit further south.
  4. psuhoffman
    bunnies everywhere beware
  5. psuhoffman
    I am hugging the HRDPS big time
  6. psuhoffman
    What are you looking at? It gives DC about 8-10" south to north across the district.
  7. psuhoffman
    GFS has trended southwest with the coastal low capture/stall the last several runs...but without having much impact on the CCB frustratingly lol. But again its super close for DC...this run the capture and tuck happens right at OC which is exactly the latitude that puts DC on the edge for getting into the CCB.
  8. psuhoffman
    Icon snows into Tuesday night lol
  9. psuhoffman
    In fairness (dunno until the qpf comes out) I don’t think the rgem is bad it’s just the trend. Big step back from last 2 runs.
  10. psuhoffman
    Hug the icon.
  11. psuhoffman
    I know you’re kidding but that wouldn’t help. That’s the last thing we need. That would squash the WAA wave and still wouldn’t help with the coastal. Might even make it phase and amplify slower and end up OTS for everyone. Our problems lie in the typical miller b transfer problems.
  12. psuhoffman
    Ehh rgem isn’t the NAM but it shifted the ccb northeast quite a bit. Still decent DC northeast but not close to the last few and the trend is troubling.
  13. psuhoffman
    Rgem still looks better then the nams at 24 hrs. Can already tell it isn’t blasting that dry slot as far north. Too soon on the ccb yet.
  14. psuhoffman
    I was strictly talking about the slp track
  15. psuhoffman
    Yes...but sometimes that actually does happen and it’s not a model feedback error. But it can be, especially on the mesos with this type of setup.
  16. psuhoffman
    Right or wrong (probably wrong) the NAM is chasing the convection and taking the secondary way too far OTS. It’s improving slightly each run with that but not enough. You can see the slp ride up the line of convection that fires out over the gulf steam vs tucking in along the coastal front baroclinic zone.
  17. psuhoffman
    That is some crazy divergence from the consensus secondary track and capture location. Not even close. Wow
  18. psuhoffman
    @Weather Will is slacking cue yeoman with “looks like climo”. 6” one isn’t too shabby either keep in mine ensemble members are low resolution and 10-1 so they are going to underestimate snow totals (when you actually do get it lol) if it’s a cold storm or you get under the ccb
  19. psuhoffman
    @stormtracker 18z was better then 12z
  20. psuhoffman
    The qpf increased across N VA and DC and snow mean increased about an inch in DC. Combo of both a little more qpf with WAA and a little better CCB
  21. psuhoffman
    BIG improvement for N VA on eps. Kinda what I had expected with the op track
  22. psuhoffman
    Any stalled from Lewis Delaware south should at least get some ccb into DC
  23. psuhoffman
    That could just be due to the double barrel or strung out low configuration you get as it’s captured and loops. Where exactly the lowest pressure is any any one time isn’t that important.
  24. psuhoffman
    The euro was about 20 miles too far northeast and way underdone with the ccb in that 2010 example. Fwiw
  25. psuhoffman
    It’s really consistent. It seems to be where the moisture transport from the secondary is meeting up with the inverted trough from the dying primary and enhanced by instability from convergent winds ahead of the h5 and old h7 lows. The gfs has it too just further northeast and it’s not as sharp since gfs sucky resolution and all. On top of its sucky everything else.
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