psuhoffman

I am not putting the kibosh on the Sunday storm, it’s tricky but could happen, but the period after that is a more classic way we score. There will be a pretty extended window after the block retrogrades again and the tpv shifts through the 50/50 to get something to amplify the trough. I would say like 4-5 days. That’s enough time for multiple SWs to have a shot at it. Just need one to break off the tail of the trough and dig into the east to link up with the STJ.

Omg I had a delta 88 Oldsmobile in college and it died on the side of the road near Johnstown when we took a road trip to visit the historic flood markers from PSU.

Lol this isn’t the same setup. All about where the front sets up and how the streams interact. The flow to our northeast isn’t a factor as much. Suppression did have a hand in this last storm just not the way people think of it. The system to our west started to deamplify as it hit the compressed flow to the northeast. That flow then relaxed but it took a tiny bit too long to amplify again. We got stuck in the dead zone. I think had the trough amplified straight to the coast the secondary would have captured off the VA capes v NJ. That’s all the difference to us.

something else here is unreal bad

The key to the day 8-10 threat is what the tail of the TPV does. We need the tail of the trough to break off a SW and dig into the east...which will in turn create some separation between the 50/50 and pump some ridging along the east coast. If that trailing SW moves more east and misses the connection with the STJ everything will likely be suppressed. If something digs into the MS/TN valley we likely get a storm up the east coast.

It’s still cold enough to suppress two storms south of us day 5 and 9 lol. I’ll pass on arctic cold if it means we don’t get any snow.

Para and ukmet have some snow with the wave next weekend. Para has a big storm day 10.

My uncle lives in Shenandoah Junction. Right behind the High and Middle Schools.

If this is what the rest of winter looks like Gefs extended euro weeklies

I’ve come to realize I like the day after a big storm more. I like the scenery of snow on the ground but I’m not a huge fan of it hitting me in the face. Don’t get me wrong it’s awesome when it’s puking snow and piling up. But my favorite part is taking a walk when it’s nice out and there is snow otg.

Been busy. A lot going on at work. I did get out with the kids for a couple hours.

The NAO is likely to reload again after that imo. The TPV is still a weak POS so the next wave break will just start the whole cycle again.

It’s provably becoming true even more so with warmer ocean SSTs. We need those to cool to stop flooding the mid latitudes with warmth. But it certainly happened in the past also. 1958 and 1960 has blocking all winter but it wasn’t until February/March that we cashed in.

Told ya that southeast ridge would be suppressed if the -epo/NAO combo was real. It’s REALLY hard for us to be warm with that combo in February

What’s your total. My original 5-10” call looks better now that part 2 decided to perform.

Hope that dryslot in SE PA NE MD fills in

That band has arrived and it’s LEGIT!

I remember many many years ago seeing some correlation chart that showed temperature correlations by winter weeks for the major indices. And that I thought oddly the NAO didn’t correlate nearly as much as I expected...UNTIL late January or February then it was like the god of indicators. I’ll have to remind myself of that next time we’re warm during a -NAO early in the season.

Can we get that into NE Carroll pwease

I’m hopeful when that band gets here is when the steady heavy starts here. Got a quick .75” with that nice band an hour ago but it keeps varying and going back to light snow. That band rolling out of York PA now coincides with the arrival of the best deep moisture feed at the mid levels around the deepening (finally phased at all levels) low. The stuff we’ve been in so far had to deal with the pockets of dry air left over from being in the extended SW flow ahead of the stalled h7 before it made the transfer and phased. Shame we didn’t get the euro idea from 3 days ago where the mid and upper lows just amplified right through with no stall and jump. The secondary would have been captured further south and we would be getting what SE PA is.

@WxWatcher007 just tell me who I have to sacrifice to lock this in. Whoever it is I’ll give you a 10 minute head start...then no mercy!

They are in the dead zone under the h7/85 lows. The best moisture feed is north of them then rotating south to their west.

Looks like the pivot point at the base of the h7 low to me

No that actually makes perfect sense. And it’s true. You can see on radar the trajectory pivot and I am mixing with huge flakes now as soon as the banding started to pivot from PA. The moisture feed we’re seeing is being driven by the h7 low and my suspicion is the nasty warm layer that is obviously above 850 is being prevented from mixing by that easterly flow at 700 mb. As that pivots out of the north you will flip quick imo.