psuhoffman

Over under how many more times you ask

Yup. I never thought the pattern didn’t look good long range. I just think people were depressed when this week looked bad and we’re transferring that into the long range. A -NAO pattern in late winter will yield opportunities regardless of the pac.

That post wasn’t directed at you specifically. But I do very much want everyone to get snow. But I also don’t want to get left out. Those two things can both be true. When I worry about “fringed” sometimes it’s a joke. Sometimes it’s legit and it does happen. I got fringed last week. But I don’t pretend that is about anything other then my yard. I do try to make posts from a region wide focus also though. I make some posts directed at the northern crew that’s more imby focused. And I make some that are DC centric. At least I try too. My warm layer concerns for example were more for DC then me even. Although I do think that’s the bigger fail threat up here also. But it’s especially problematic for DC. And I want them to get annihilated for a change! And yes I want to get snow up here also. Why does it have to be one or the other? Cant I root for my yard AND everyone else’s also?

@Bob Chill eps 24 hour trend

I do wonder what the results this year would have been say 30 years ago in DC. It’s a Nina with a generally mediocre pac base state irrespective of enso so expecting a 1996 or 2010 type result from the blocking would be ambitious in the least. But up here for example, the results have at least been more in line with what you would expect from a great blocking winter with mediocre “other” factors. I’m very likely to end to above climo snowfall (only 5” away with a LOT of winter to go up here). Unless we get a 1958 type finish it won’t rival the top 10% type winters but it’s likely to end up in that very good category just below that. Obviously I do better then DC but I’m talking wrt climo. Historically when I finish above climo so does DC. I’ve noticed more of a decoupling of that in recent years though where not only do I do better in raw numbers but I also am doing much better wrt climo some years. I wonder how much of that is the elephant in the room.

We were too busy commiserating the failure of the snow pattern to notice the brief cold snap.

@Bob Chill clown comp

@Bob Chill biggest change was shifted well south with the second wave Thursday evening. Now snow all the way to just NW of 95.

It lives!!! Dews are crashing so the worst of the melting is over.

@Ji I’m just celebrating the survival of my pack. Temp is still around 40 but the dews are crashing now and so the melting is about done and it survived. I want a month straight of cover which is very possible if this next storm doesn’t disappoint.

@Bob Chill i try to do some of the pertinent panels. Sorry to use the precip type plots but I dont have time to parse every panel right now. Morning thump colder and thumpier

For the record the reason I almost always Jack is that I specifically picked my exact location based on that! Not the region. This area is half way between my wife’s family and my work and there are other reasons we picked this general region. But the exact spot of my house is due to a combo of the view and being literally the snowfall maximum for MD east of the blue ridge. I’m on top of a mountain near the highest point of Parrs ridge. That’s why it almost always works out. Has nothing to do with me willing it. I moved to where it snows instead of trying to will the snow to me.

If I’m the furthest north spot in this forum and I’m worried about a warm layer...that’s pretty pertinent to everyone else in here unless I’m confused about geography.

That was supposed to be funny. Ugh. Of course I want as much snow as I can get in my yard. Who here doesn’t? But since I have no control over it I don’t feel selfish about that. Honestly if I did have control I would draw up ridiculous storms with 300 mile wide Jack zones that give everyone in here 20”. Or of I had to give up a storm once in a while in order for others to get snow I would. Yes I want snow but I also want others to get snow too! If I had a preference from 12z I would like the Para. Gets DC area with the initial thump in the morning then we attrition our way to good snow up here from a combo of multiple waves. It’s a win for everyone.

My post was to the NW crew. But my joke post aside I’m NOT worried about south with this one. I don’t see enough of a suppressive flow to crush this. Maybe we don’t Jack but whatever...our bigger risk even up here is a mid level warm layer sneaking north imo. ETA: the initial wave likely does focus the heaviest just south of us...but we would get good snow later in the day assuming the warm layer doesn’t blast north too fast.

On that run it’s “we” because the trajectory of the banding places us in the same zone

Please...this has nothing to do with NEED... this is WANT!!! I WANT snow. All the snow all the time. SNOW SNOW SNOW. Give me snow. Then I want more snow. And top it off with a side of snow. Then I’ll have a little snow for desert. I want flakes the size of cars that leave craters! I want to need tunnels to get to my door. I try to be selfless and empathetic as much as I can in my life. I try to do things to give back. But with snow I am a selfish SOB. I want all the snow and I want it now!

Northwest crew...if we get the further south solution it’s ok. We get higher ratios and stay snow more of the event (maybe even all of it in terms of when there is meaningful heavy precip). And it gives more cushion for the inevitable north trend at the end. Nothing is showing us fringed up here. Worrying about the exact placement of a meso band within the precip shield on globals at 48 hours is useless. Plus they never pick up on the oragraphics enhances banding that sets up in the typical places.

No we didn’t. A lot of that qpf from 0z was last nights. We lost maybe .2 qpf because we get stuck between meso bands. But that’s totally meaningless on a global from this range. None of them can accurately place those meso bands. It was fine Imo.

A lot of that 0z qpf was from last night

Unless we want DC to get screwed again our path up here is to get better ratios and score a few inches from the Thursday morning wave then tack on another round with the second wave. If we Jack from wave 1 Thursday morning it means DC got another screw job because the second wave will be north of the first.

Yes but the NAM is so far north with the initial WAA wave for the same reason it doesn’t even have the second wave. It blasts the mid level warm layer through and dry slots everyone and storm over. No second band because it wrecks the mid levels. But in that case we get the first band. But I think the NAM is likely going haywire post 36 hours. Some of the other high res models like the ARW and NMB have come around fully to the globals progression.

Lift induced by the coastal wave along the Arctic boundary that is stalled along the east coast.

@high risk one last thing. Luckily there seems to be some synergy between the two bands. If the initial wave is south so is the second and Vice verse. So that seems to mitigate a total fail scenario.

That idea of a second period of snow later Thursday is across most guidance now. Rgem and some of the other high res models have it and so does the euro. Except the danger is if that ends up north and mix then places north of DC/Balt could be a screw zone between heavy bands of snow. On the other hand if we get in on the northern side of the morning band and get that secondary banding later we end up the Jack.