psuhoffman

I remember many many years ago seeing some correlation chart that showed temperature correlations by winter weeks for the major indices. And that I thought oddly the NAO didn’t correlate nearly as much as I expected...UNTIL late January or February then it was like the god of indicators. I’ll have to remind myself of that next time we’re warm during a -NAO early in the season.

Can we get that into NE Carroll pwease

I’m hopeful when that band gets here is when the steady heavy starts here. Got a quick .75” with that nice band an hour ago but it keeps varying and going back to light snow. That band rolling out of York PA now coincides with the arrival of the best deep moisture feed at the mid levels around the deepening (finally phased at all levels) low. The stuff we’ve been in so far had to deal with the pockets of dry air left over from being in the extended SW flow ahead of the stalled h7 before it made the transfer and phased. Shame we didn’t get the euro idea from 3 days ago where the mid and upper lows just amplified right through with no stall and jump. The secondary would have been captured further south and we would be getting what SE PA is.

@WxWatcher007 just tell me who I have to sacrifice to lock this in. Whoever it is I’ll give you a 10 minute head start...then no mercy!

They are in the dead zone under the h7/85 lows. The best moisture feed is north of them then rotating south to their west.

Looks like the pivot point at the base of the h7 low to me

No that actually makes perfect sense. And it’s true. You can see on radar the trajectory pivot and I am mixing with huge flakes now as soon as the banding started to pivot from PA. The moisture feed we’re seeing is being driven by the h7 low and my suspicion is the nasty warm layer that is obviously above 850 is being prevented from mixing by that easterly flow at 700 mb. As that pivots out of the north you will flip quick imo.

Still sleeting here. Good luck with that. Lol. There must be a warm layer above 850.

I got 4.7 but it’s compacted down to about 4.2 from the sleet now. But I’ll take the sleet will help us hold snowcover if we get a warm day.

That storm had a crazy gradient through MD similar to what some models show now. Hanover just north of the PA line had 15” while Westminster only had 7”.

I’ve been stuck in that dryslot for the last 2 hours.

It improved the wrap around across the area tomorrow. This would be snow after 12z tomorrow 10-1 map. Ratios would probably be better. It’s not huge but first improvement in a while with that. I’ve been looking for signs the ccb will activate better. The mid level low to our west seems slightly south of progs and the flow is pretty decent to get moisture transport into the area.

Euro Euro Euro

The track is fine but the mid and upper level lows to our west take too long to phase. So we are stuck under sw flow (dryslot) as the coastal passes through out sweet spot late tonight and early tomorrow. Then they phase in which opens the moisture feed to the west but not until the low is off NJ too late for us.

The suppression in New England moves out just in time for the wave to amplify along the coast. Problem is it de amplified the wave west of us first then because the ridge is east of the Rockies it reamplifies a bit too late. The slp track is fine. Transfer to NC then up. But we’re sitting under the dry slot ahead of the mid and upper level lows as the secondary passes through our sweet spot so it’s ruined. The mid and upper lows take too long to get their act together and phase in too late. Not sure suppression would have helped that. We’ve had some really awesome miller b hybrids with a primary into Ohio so long as the secondary develops south of us. But those cases (feb 10 2010 was one) the trough was amplifying not weakening on approach. The stall then wait to phase of the upper lows kills us because we sit under the dry SW flow at the mid levels as the coastal passes us. The runs that crushed us the trough didn’t open up and weaken as much it held and amplified to the coast without the weaken/open up/stall nonsense. Imo that was when it went wrong.

Not a total bust but I think for DC we can say most of the coastal effects will be northeast

This setup is kind of counter intuitive Imo. Here was/is my thinking. About a week ago Ji asked me what the fail option was. I said a split where the primary gets too squashed and the WAA gets suppressed south then the coastal is late and north. We almost got that. This was pretty close to the worst case scenario. Imo had the primary been LESS suppressed and still amped up instead of deamplifying as it crosses the Ohio valley we would be getting a better WAA thump snow today. Maybe 6-10” v 3-6”. That may not have done us any good on the coastal but even though the stronger primary would have driven some warmer air in tonight I also think the more amped solution may have triggered a faster secondary cyclogenesis. One reason this ends up too late (other then the not ideal ridge axis out west) is the trough starts to open up and deamplify and tilt positive in the Midwest as it approaches and feels the effects of the suppressive flow in New England. That flow is moving out but it does the damage. The trough recovers and re amplifies a little too late for us. This is all a balance and tricky because if the suppression relaxes too much the whole thing could cut. But given the setup even that would have been a pretty dynamic 6-10” thump snow to ice to dryslot imo and I’ll take that over 4-8” of light snow over 3 days anytime!!! That’s just my preference though. Overall i saw more ways to possibly win and less chance at a total fail with an amplifying wave v a suppressed one. I don’t think more suppression would have helped with what imo did us in which was a combo of the wave coming across west to east a slightly too much latitude and a not ideal ridge axis out west.

Again and I’ll die on this hill, we got plenty of suppression. The primary is moving due east across the country unable to gain latitude. We can’t do anything about the fact that it came in pretty far north out west. That was always going to be an issue. But the primary is forced due east and transfers to the outer banks! That’s all we can ask for from “suppression”. It’s snowing into southern VA today! The issue is the wave is coming across at a high latitude starting out and the ridge out west is slightly east of where we want. The result is the major amplification and phase that happens is too late. It swings slightly too east before it captures. What would a more suppressive flow done to this scenario? So even more suppression and the wave would be shearing out even more on approach and we likely get even less today from WAA. And I doubt it even helps with the coastal as it would likely swing even further out before amplifying and miss everyone. We needed the trough to amplify in the east a little sooner/further west. That’s all. We got all the suppression we needed unless you wanted to see another weak wave over NC today.

Good news is the pattern next week looks even better wrt that issue. The next trough amplification looks to happen just to our west which is where we want if we have this kind of blocking

I know it’s half joking but last time I’m gonna say this. It snowed today almost to the NC/VA border. We got plenty of suppression. In the end the western ridge axis was just a little too Far East (and we kinda knew that but sometimes you can overcome it) and so the major amplification of the trough happens SLIGHTLY too late for us. Suppression wouldn’t have helped at all. It would have hurt the WAA snow today and probably made the coastal develop further east and miss everyone. We simply needed the trough axis to go negative a little sooner or further west.

Euro kinda just took a dump on my area. Saw it coming. Was shifting the deform band a little northeast every run and finally pretty much took it away completely. Does swing that band through Tuesday but on the EDGE so even a 10 mile adjustment east with that and the coastal is pretty much a total bust even up here. Oh well it happens. Still close...if it corrects back 30 miles suddenly It’s on again but these last minute miller b trends don’t seem to reverse that often.

Take care, please. All that stuff is more important then snow. PS: as long as it snows!

Don’t say that...if the coastal craps out it’s not so bad for south of me. They get 4-8” from the WAA but almost all my snow has to be from the corral. I’m getting fringed by the WAA

28/20 no wind at all. It’s too cloudy to see but the real problem is there must be one of those little prop planes they send up from Westminster circling around over head and whoever is flying that thing has the worst case of dandruff I’ve ever seen. It’s disgusting. Getting all over everything.

Thanks for converging 3 zones literally at my house! Awesome It’s like a choose your own adventure for me.