psuhoffman

77 I could deal with...because while it was MUCH below normal snowfall here (only about 55%) it was still better then 1985 and every inch didn't melt for weeks and this area slowly built up a 10" snow depth 2" at a time and had snowcover for like 6 weeks. That would be kind of cool even if a little disappointing to only get half of average snowfall with all that cold. 77 is ANOTHER example of why I don't chase arctic outbreaks. I am not kidding...our coldest periods usually do NOT coincide with our snowiest periods.

just messing with ya, it was a good piece of pattern recognition by you. I agree that there is an elevated threat of a storm there

AHEM

I was only 7 and living in NJ. All I know is according to the local coop here there was only 11.5" of snow the entire winter and no single event more then 3". In 132 years of records I compiled using coop data it was the 4th least snowy winter and the 2nd worse in terms of the most pathetic "greatest snowfall" at 3". Only 1950 was worse. It's one of only 3 years in 132 that didn't feature a warning level event here. I don't care how amazing that cold front was that would have been a horrible winter that I would never want to go through again and would probably try to block from my memory. Looking at records it was also much colder then average which is another reason I do not chase arctic outbreaks. The often do us no good wrt snow.

Why does everyone reference 1985 so much. I was too young to remember but looking at local records it was one of the least snowy winters ever here. Yet people bring it up a lot.

Also this is a temporary thing. That PV will slide east as the ridge in Canada retrogrades. This is too much panic for something that only impacts 2-3 days

The SE ridge will be suppressed somewhat. That is a LOT of cold pressing and a lot of blocking up top. We don't want to be in the core of the cold. That would be dry. We want to be near the boundary. This was a huge change from previous runs...guidance suddenly decided to split the PV and dump the larger part to our west which allows more ridge. But that can be a good thing if we end up near the boundary. GFS still ends up with a snowstorm just to our NW and then another just to our south. I highly doubt the boundary shifts so far NW that we are not at least in the game.

I’m not really tracking cold. I care about snow. Seeing the Arctic shot didn’t excite me. Now seeing too much eastern ridge is a problem. But if that is slightly overdone it’s fine for getting waves. I don’t want the PV over us.

The cold is still there it’s just dumping west initially not east.

Sunday isn’t dead imo. That’s the kind of wave that can trend better the final 72 hours. But it’s tricky and I’m not wasting time on every little trend at range.

It’s still lurking but gfs splits the PV and the dominant peace stays out west which pumps a ridge in the east. Previously guidance was elongating but sliding the dominant PV lobe east. The 6z eps went to that idea also.

The NAO retrogrades a little too far west for my liking also

6z Eps went to that

I am more worried about the trend in the system next week then the weekend. The weekend thing was always a tougher get. But there has been a trend across guidance towards pulling the trough more west next week which could complicate the setup for the waves after the weekend. Still a lot of time though for that to adjust either way.

Might get one more burst late tonight as that last band rotates through from the NW.

It was mostly west to east with a slight latitude gain on the coast that was just enough for our area. Still a very sharp west to east cutoff just along the Mason Dixon line. I was down in VA with my brother for that event but up here got 4" while 10 miles south got 6" and only 15 miles north got nothing. You can see the gradient in this image. Also....had a huge expanse of snowfall north to south.

What is there to say. The pattern looks GREAT. Now we just have to wait for discreet threats to get into range and see how the details work out. BTW two of the periods showing up in the CPC analogs are right before all hell broke lose in 1958 and 1960 so the potential is there for a memorable run. Still need the specifics to go our way.

OK they are using day 5-10 of an OP model to verify trends...time to stop it with posting their garbage maybe???

I am not putting the kibosh on the Sunday storm, it’s tricky but could happen, but the period after that is a more classic way we score. There will be a pretty extended window after the block retrogrades again and the tpv shifts through the 50/50 to get something to amplify the trough. I would say like 4-5 days. That’s enough time for multiple SWs to have a shot at it. Just need one to break off the tail of the trough and dig into the east to link up with the STJ.

Omg I had a delta 88 Oldsmobile in college and it died on the side of the road near Johnstown when we took a road trip to visit the historic flood markers from PSU.

Lol this isn’t the same setup. All about where the front sets up and how the streams interact. The flow to our northeast isn’t a factor as much. Suppression did have a hand in this last storm just not the way people think of it. The system to our west started to deamplify as it hit the compressed flow to the northeast. That flow then relaxed but it took a tiny bit too long to amplify again. We got stuck in the dead zone. I think had the trough amplified straight to the coast the secondary would have captured off the VA capes v NJ. That’s all the difference to us.

something else here is unreal bad

The key to the day 8-10 threat is what the tail of the TPV does. We need the tail of the trough to break off a SW and dig into the east...which will in turn create some separation between the 50/50 and pump some ridging along the east coast. If that trailing SW moves more east and misses the connection with the STJ everything will likely be suppressed. If something digs into the MS/TN valley we likely get a storm up the east coast.

It’s still cold enough to suppress two storms south of us day 5 and 9 lol. I’ll pass on arctic cold if it means we don’t get any snow.

Para and ukmet have some snow with the wave next weekend. Para has a big storm day 10.