psuhoffman

? It actually looks pretty good to me...

I’ll have to confirm but I think the 13.8 is the new 30 year. If it’s 10 I agree that’s sketchy. I think 30 is necessary since we know the climate is changing. Anything longer will skew cold/snowy compared to the current situation.

It all starts with a strong nino I do believe in that correlation. The last several super ninos (1973/1983/1998/2016) were all followed by multiple year hostile pacific patterns. But at the same time let’s not pretend the larger trend isn’t there either. The 99-02 period was worse then the comparable post nino 80s and 70s periods and the 17-21 period now was worst of all. And the frequency of sub 10” winters is increasing even independent of those post nino periods. So like I’ve said our recent problems are a combo of both. Both a shorter term hostile period coinciding with the continued degradation of our larger scale snow climo. There will still be peaks and wins but imo the valleys are going to be lower and more frequent.

Ive used it for mulch but yes you don’t want to put it near the house just in case.

it was a clipper...put down some 10" plus totals just to our northeast as it developed along the coast.

but you're thinking about it the wrong way...there is going to be a storm there either way. It's not going to be 60 degrees and sunny. What if your choices are 32 and snow that quickly melts or a 40 degree rainy day. Think of it that way and its different.

I did mean nino. I’m not saying enso effects are permanently muted. I’m just saying when the current pac pattern has persisted for 5 years through varying enso states it’s obviously not simply enso causing it.

Pac yes, enso imo not as much anymore because I’m not convinced the pac pattern is driven by enso. It’s been identical for 5 years through 2 ninos, 2 Nina’s, and a neutral year. Hard to argue that is enso driven! Is the pac a problem though regardless of what’s causing it, most definitely yes. Besides we can’t simply blame the Nina for ruining the -NAO. Nina history says that’s not accurate. Nina -NAO months in Jan Feb and March have actually been snowier then all other enso state -NAO months. Problem is a -NAO is rare in a Nina. This year was more the exception then the rule both in having a -NAO Nina and completely wasting it. BTW side note: the one exception is obviously moderate to strong Nina’s with a -NAO. That’s the gold standard. Those are when we get crushed with snow. Yes a -NAO still correlated to more snow in other states but if you take weak Nina’s, enso neutral, and Nina’s while a -NAO does favor more snow then normal the numbers aren’t crazy big. And Nina’s actually has better -NAO avg snowfall then neutrals and weak ninos. Small sample size though since there aren’t that many -NAO Nina months.

Palm Sunday 1942 was the largest storm on record in Westminster.

Good news is the weather don’t care what any of us think

Is banter allowed in the banter thread?

Your winter = my fall/spring

It’s in the mid 30s and raining. Pretty miserable.

Want it to melt now. Made it to a month. It’s a slushy mess now. Time to go. At this point it’s about chasing some dynamic March event. Doesn’t have to be 20”, I’d track something that’s only like 8-10” so long as it’s a thump of heavy snow like that late March 2014 storm that was 8” up here. Cold smoke storms and pack building season is over. Either give me a dynamic wet SN+++ event or I’d prefer 60s and hitting the rail trail.

Barely hangin on

I don’t chase snow anymore. I let it chase me.

It’s got 1/3 of the way to the final outcome in 1 run

I’m sure that’s where the snow will end up

No you didn't He used my CM map and forgot to convert

Damn legit heavy now. Golf ball flakes.

It will flip when the dry slot south of this current banding gets here in a couple hours. Until then should be fun. Closing in on 1” now. Sticking to everything.

Glad it’s going to warm up later...my snowblower is busted and I am not shoveling my quarter mile driveway!

It’s snowing pretty hard right now. 32