psuhoffman

I think the time frames we have been using are great...inside 72 hours we tend to move something to its own thread (short range). Day 3-7 is medium range...past 7 is long range stuff...I didn't think we should change that at all...but the way the 3 threads got named at a glance they all look the same with the 7's thing... that's all.

NAO tanks again towards day 15 lol.

Nice increase on EPS

Other guidance keeps the NS and SS split and has a weak wave to north which pulls the boundary south for the possible waves later in the week.

Yea I liked the idea of separate threads and I do think its worth it...but the naming system is kinda AAAAHHHH. I was thinking like...Short range, medium Range, Long range or something like that.

Now that the full 0z suite is in I don't think we can say there was a southeast trend...what we saw was a tightening of the goalposts... the most amplified guidance (NAM/GFS) trended less so but the least amplified guidance (GGEM/Euro/UK) trended more.

But what did you do to deserve the snow? You live somewhere (assuming your location is accurate) that is like the snow anus of the region but you are like 15 miles away from places that get a LOT more snow then you....that seems like a level of apathy undeserving of snow. I drive over an HOUR to and from work EVERYDAY just for those 3-4 times a year I might be lucky enough to get more snow. That is devotion! fanaticism. I earn the snow. You choose to live somewhere that gets barely any snow while being a relative stones throw away from places that get a lot more then complain when climo happens??? I am kidding of course...and greatly exaggerating...but there is some nugget of truth to this. I know I would be unhappy and frustrated wrt snowfall living in and around Baltimore...so I moved up here and commute. And frankly I would rather, and probably will someday, move somewhere that gets even more snow then here. But I choose to live here so I don't complain about my climo. I accept that I don't get 100 inches a year like I want because I choose to live somewhere that doesn't get that much snow. Hopefully someday I will move to Colorado or northern NH where there is snow on the ground 5 months a year and I won't have to struggle to get snow (and yes even up here in a normal year snow is a struggle just less of one then where you are but I go plenty of winter months without any snow sometimes). So that first part was in jest...but at the same time I do kind of not understand people that choose to live somewhere with a median snowfall of like 10" and then act unhappy when they don't get much snow most years. My boss is one of those people...lives right on the bay east of Baltimore and is always upset that I get so much more snow...but stubbornly refuses to move west of town even though there is really nothing keeping him from doing so...it would even be closer to his job to commute from Reisterstown then where he does. ETA: I am not rooting against you. I always want to see both DC/Balt and myself get crushed. My favorite storms are when we are all puking snow and can share in it. That is why often when I am getting snow and I know the majority in here are not I go silent. I don't want to rub it in. What I said up there is not some kind of "give me all the snow and screw you lowlanders" thing. I truly hope we all get a ton of snow in the next 2 weeks. But climo is climo. There is a reason I average 40" and DC averages 14". And those reasons will always exist in every situation. I know...I didn't always live up here, I lived down near DC and constantly watched this area get all the snow...so I moved up here lol.

This captures the whole period...the GEGS has multiple waves over a 4 day period...you would think one would hit us lol

There is a LOT of potential next week...a series of waves along the arctic boundary. Thing is...the people rooting for that crazy cold to blast in here would not like that result if they want snow. The threat for storms is along the edge of the arctic boundary. We want that PV up to our NW not diving down into us. It would be great it if would break off a peice and dig in and phase and we could get a monster storm up the coast...but absent that we want it out of the way and to be along the edge of the arctic cold not deep into it. If it dives into the east and we have sub 0 temps we are likely not getting a snowstorm.

Just looking at THIS run...way too far out to worry about details

The PV dives too far SE and its going to suppress it if I had to guess on this run. But people that just want to enjoy DRY FRIGID arctic cold will love this run!

no that was 2015. December 2016 was when we had that 30" overrunning storm for like 3 runs then the STJ remembered it was a nina and just disappeared. It ended up a weak arse 1-2" wave instead.

precip panels are out. It is pretty far NW of 12z but not a huge hit or anything. Best precip stays southeast of 95 but there is a little stripe of decent precip that seems to develop along and just NW of 95 also. Remember 12z was totally dry and way SE so its the trend. Can't tell details until the upper level and qpf maps come out later but it was an improvement over 12z. These things bounce around a little and it's hard to see the longer term trends from any one run. If 12z continues to shift southeast the more amplified idea might be in trouble...but a single run (which isn't even totally out yet) can't establish a trend.

December 2016 didn't get that memo

Sh!t it KNOWS

how much snow did you get this week again?

CMC looks a lot better through 60

slightly less amplified SS wave. That seems to be a trend so far at 0z.

on the ICON the issue is the NS breaks off a vort from the main lobe that is pinwheeling north of the lakes and dives to about Lake Ontario which compresses the flow just enough to prevent the low from a north turn from NC. 18z that wasn't there. The wave was actually a little better on the 0z ICON. The NAM/ICON had a similar trend but for very different reasons. The NAM trended better with the NS but weaker with the SS. The ICON the other way around. lol

It looked like it there...but then the low took a NE instead of NNE track from NC and the heavy precip stayed southeast of 95. Close miss to the SE with the heavy snow.

ICON was slightly more amplified...and exact same track until it got to the outer banks...and it looked about to be a better run....but then 18z the low took a more N jog from there and this run it went northeast and out despite the fact it was several MB more amplified.

ICON looks slightly more amplified then 18z through 46 hours fwiw.

I would think more amplified in this setup but the NAM's did trend less at 0z no denying that and the RGEM was pretty flat. Just a lot less amplified with the wave. The flow can be conducive but if the wave is a weak strung out POS it wont matter.

That is a danger...but its also a path to a big hit. The northern stream isn't progressing east its pinwheeling in the upper great lakes. So it does get out "ahead" briefly this run which is why the wave starts out more suppressed initially. But because the NS isn't progressing east the SS wave will eventually get out in front of the flow and once that happens it turns north and should gain latitude fairly easily. There is NOTHING in the flow to stop it. The only issue would be if the wave gets squashed so much it can't recover but I don't necessarily see that here yet. But that NS preventing this from amplifying and gaining latitude UNTIL it is over the southeast saves us because this would cut to the north pole otherwise in this flow. We need it to be shunted into the southeast before amplifying and gaining latitude...and yes its a thread the needle because if it gets shunted too far then it can't recover but we have to dance with that devil here if we want to have a shot at a frozen and not wet solution.

Look at the SLP track on the 3k...even starting out as far southeast it comes NNE up the coast...from off SC to just east of the VA capes. It's good that this doesn't start to amplify until its over the southeast because we would be in trouble otherwise...but I really think this is coming up not escaping east.