psuhoffman

Been mixing with snow during heavy bursts all morning.

It does now. It was moving ENE all evening but seems to have taken a turn more due east lately.

@mappy hope you’re paying attention. That tornadic cell is heading towards you. Tornado from that just missed my uncle in Shenandoah Junction WV earlier. He said he saw it.

@Bob Chill if you are around I could use your help with something. PM me if you get the chance. Thanks

I am heading up to New England later next week and next weekend to do some skiing. I was expecting spring conditions...skiing in a jacket on slush snow. Not sure how I feel about the potential to get mid winter conditions for a couple days.

You have to set up on the windward side of the ridges in upslope scenarios.

It’s already pretty brutal

If you move don’t go to Laramie. Like MN said that are in a shadow zone. Where are you exactly? The front range in northern CO looks good. Ground zero (other then really high elevations) might be places just north of Cheyenne WY like Chugwater to Wheatlant.

We wasted a -1.8 NAO January. Lol

They put in a skate park between the pavilions and the pond.

It’s been nice. Took the kids to Christmas Tree Park in Manchester. Last of the snow hanging by a thread today...

Gefs still interested

They’re laughing at us!

I said Gefs. There are some members that are wet. But it’s still not in details range anyways. I’m not really paying much attention. Just made a half joking observation.

Then it targets just north layer in the week. I suppose one more DC split would be a perfect way to end things.

The one you declared dead.

p28 seems to fit the seasonal pattern.

its not crazy for that range though... some subtle shifts in the longwave pattern at that range has significant impact on the synoptic details. Maybe it shifts back next run who knows...but that's why I was lol at the "its over" posts the last 24 hours. I would be equally LOL at any "it's gonna snow" posts too. Maybe the winter got to everyone because some people are acting silly lately with making determinations about synoptic details from ranges that are not realistic.

GEFS targets central VA. Right where we want it lol

@CAPE also I’ve moved on. I had a health issue and got a family function coming up and besides that I’m totally swamped at work now. So I’d love another snow but if we don’t get another flake I won’t blink. But I find the “it’s over” posts amusing. Maybe it is. Maybe it isn’t. I don’t ever assume anything that has happened multiple times won’t happen again.

I get ya. I think Ji was being more universal in his post though.

Dunno...I never thought it was likely and still don’t but I also still wouldn’t be shocked if the area saw another snow either. Honestly I feel people are letting their disappointment and desire to be done with winter to cloud their judgement. We know it can snow in late March. And yes even on the coastal plain. It’s pretty rare. Like a 5-10% probability (of something more then just mood flakes) in any year type thing. But that’s not “no way” like people keep saying. And the fact the winter was a disappointment until now also doesn’t have that much correlation. Some years with late snow were pretty dismal before that also. I kinda feel like this is more people’s desire to have warm weather and not suffer one more disappointment.

Micro v macro. Your zooming in on a specific synoptic setup which wasn’t even in range when I made that observation. On the longwave pattern level there are some similarities with an elongated TPV from Siberia down into SE Canada as the driving mechanism to get cold here and suppress the storm track. The 18z op gfs adds a wrinkle with a -NAO also but thats not across the majority of guidance...yet?

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March is typically too volatile to get a threat to lock in at super long leads. If something does come up it likely won’t show itself clearly until inside 5/6 days and even that might be pushing it.