psuhoffman

The coastal didn't amp up enough imo. Yea we got some nice banding of precip riding north up the inverted trough with the NS wave in the lakes...and that is typical with a juiced up SS wave and the gulf open for business. But the coastal took its good old time getting its act together and didnt really amplify so the banding was hit or miss and there was no surface NE flow. That combo killed the 95 corridor.

Just off the top of my head Feb 22 1987 DCA had a high of 48 and that night into the following morning recorded 10.3” of snow. There was no cold front just a coastal storm.

“Storm” is over but it’s doing that upslope snizzle thing I often get for a whole after a storm passes. That’s ok because every hour it does this preserves a little precious snowpack from the evil February sun

I measured 5.2 on my deck before the lull. Measured another 1.8 after from the second round. But depth never got above 5.8 and now it’s compacted back to like 5 again. So 7 actually fell between the two heavy bands but we never passed 5.8 depth due to compaction during the lull. Also this is the kind of borderline event where my 300 extra feet might have mattered some. It was 33 during a lot of the storm even up here.

Been focused more on shirt range lol. I’m trying to be holistic about the whole period. Guidance will struggle with exactly where the boundary sets up but history suggests it’s near us. There are so many waves coming at us the next 2 weeks I find it hard to believe we don’t go on a run. If we can avoid getting into the warm sector we may even do the glacier building thing.

My neighbors on both sides sold their houses within the last few years so might have missed your chance. I’m trying not to take it personally.

Can we get 6” snow and 6” ice instead? Please lol

Lol I live on top of a mountain. Furthermore it’s the first significant ridge in eastern MD. So with any easterly wind flow the upslope is crazy. Yea I’m not at 3000 feet like western MD but east of me aren’t more mountains it’s the coastal plain. So I get 1000 ft of upslope with an east fetch. That’s why I fear the fringe. It’s the only way I don’t win.

Getting one last hurrah although at this point snow is compacting at almost the same rate it’s accumulating lol. Nice storm though.

6.5” total. Compacted to 5.5” depth now.

I always root for my yard but once it’s obvious it’s shifting to my east I want the banding to crush everyone else. Unfortunately 95 ended up in the screw zone between the crazy fgen banding on the eastern shore and the typical oragraphically enhanced banding to the NW. Baltimore keeps finding ways to fail EVERY storm it’s amazing. @CAPE hope that band sits over you a few more hours!!!

My house is at 1,035 feet which helps A LOT! Other then about 20 mins in one band Monday this was much better and more fun. I know but there was a moment on Friday when all guidance had a sub 1000mb low amplifying as it passed the VA capes and that was a scenario where we could beat climo and get a 4-8 maybe 10” more widespread thump snow. You add slightly better banding, lift, and more NE surface wind and suddenly 34 degree moderate slush is 32 degree rippin fatties. I guess with the history of these kinds of waves usually amping up more when there isn’t any suppression I bought in. Once guidance started to back away this result was more inevitable.

I am very pleased with my yard but kinda disappointed for everyone else. Was pulling for a more amplified coastal so we had a region wide celebration. This seems pretty elevation dependent.

Just hit 5”. 3rd verified warning of the season. Need one more inch to pass 30. Gonna pay for this in years to come lol.

Sometimes radar doesn’t seem to do this area justice. I wonder if the beam starts to attenuate as it gets up here because radar says the band is mostly just southeast of me but this is what’s really happening... closing in on 5”

Just measured 4” looks like the heaviest band is setting up just to my southeast though.

Sorry. We needed the more amped up solution to cool the boundary layer. It’s not just the precip. Yea we have good moisture transport out of the gulf streaming north ahead of the NS trough but the more amped coastal would have added a northerly surface wind component and helped a little. Might still. The low seems to be a little slower getting it’s act together. Maybe we get a late save as it passes the outer banks if it can amplify enough.

No sympathy for your former location?

Looks like a little over 2” here. I’m still at 32. That’s never good when I’m 32 at 1000 ft during heavy snow.

When last year was that? All I remember was a raging +AO all winter

I still very much like the overall pattern. Multiple chances coming. But would be nice to get a hit from the first one.

Unfortunately I don’t like where this is heading

A couple days ago maybe

I wasn’t comparing radar to ground qpf. I was comparing modeled radar to actual radar. It was more expensive at 3z. That’s not subjective. Then you said that you prefer to use upper level ROAB and ground qpf reports then when I explained why that’s not really feasible in real time here you moved the goal posts. You can argue radar comps don’t matter. They aren’t the best but with a newly blossoming area of precip it’s the best you can do until you get ground reports but by then we will pretty much know in this case. But there was a more expansive precip field in the TN valley at 3z then any simulated one on the guidance I checked. Not sure why you want to die on this hill.

Gfs and icon both shifted way north with the waves this week. Hopefully just a bad op run and not a trend.