psuhoffman

It’s going to snow. The problem is how much. And that’s tricky because of very marginal temps. If this was cold smoke a general 4-8” with local 10” call would be pretty safe. But the problem here is with very borderline barely cold enough to accumulate temps rates are important. Normally the difference between getting .4 qpf and .7 would be 4” or 7” which would both ball in a 4-8” range. But there is a huge difference here where .7 over 6 hours could be a 6” thump that overcomes temps while .4 over that same 6 hours doesn’t cool the boundary layer as much so it’s 34 instead of 33 and with lighter rates it’s 1-2” of slush on non paved surfaces! Now the forecast busted.

Not the 12z ARW. It is VERY dry. NMB is actually wetter ironically previous run for comparison

Your location has kinda been the snow anus of the region lately. And because of that (understandably imo) you’ve been a bit of a deb. Because of that though some probably just assume you are debbing even when your point is legit.

Other then the NAMs, the early hints across other 12z guidance (hrrr, ARW, NNB, HRW, Icon, RGEM) is a continuation of the trend towards less amplified and thus less qpf. That’s bad for everyone. With marginal temps the extreme rates are necessary to get good accumulations. This is a setup where there is an exponential effect. It’s not like .8 qpf = 8” and .5= 5”. This is a setup where .8 could be 7” and .5 could be 1- 2”. 6 hours of moderate snow won’t work here. We need that OMG face banding on the coastal plain.

HREF looks nice Imo

Not “worried” but there has been a definite slight shift southeast on guidance so far tonight. That’s not what the northwest crew from Winchester to Mappy wanted to see. But it was minor and could be noise. 6z could easily resume the NW trend we saw the last 48 hours.

I think we will find out at 12z if this will do the typical jump NW at the last minute or if 0z was a warning for our area. I tend to think this adjusts north some tomorrow but the one inhibiting factor is it’s trucking so fast. If it is late amping up by just a couple hours it’s a problem when the whole system is flying by in 6 hours.

Well the NSSL is the best for me so I’m hugging it lol

The track adjusted west but qpf was lower across guidance so far 0z. Partially due to the storm moving even faster. In and out too fast.

Icon FULL TUCK lol

What do you know about the HRW? I’m not familiar with it.

Perfect placement for the max stripe on the ARW

Rgem kinda blah for places NW of 95. Similar to last run.

Full tuck!!!

It is less amplified...but it is also slower so it is hard to compare since the wave is amplifying more later across guidance.

Still less amplified through 28

NAM coming in less amplified so far in the plains at 17 hours

Casual

Hopefully it went too far NW

Icon knows what's up

I'm confused why you still have that avatar. BTW you from Dallas or you just the kind of person who decides they want to root for the team everyone around them hates?

Definitely true for the majority of the area. One of my "secrets" up here actually is ratios. With my elevation (about 1,050 ft) I typically do get higher ratios. 15-1 is pretty common and I have even gone 20-1 in some storms (feb 10 2010). Yea the orographics help get a little more precip but its actually more so the ratios that account for my "jack zone" more often then not.

I think the time frames we have been using are great...inside 72 hours we tend to move something to its own thread (short range). Day 3-7 is medium range...past 7 is long range stuff...I didn't think we should change that at all...but the way the 3 threads got named at a glance they all look the same with the 7's thing... that's all.

NAO tanks again towards day 15 lol.

Nice increase on EPS