psuhoffman

My area might have the highest boom/bust potential for this event. If the initial wave trends north some I could get hit good from both part 1 and 2, on the other hand it is equally or maybe even more likely I get fringed by both and get stuck in a snow minimum in between.

What a 7 day look

That wave 3 weeks ago and the waves this week are a perfect example why we need blocking to work. It’s so freaking hard to get a flush hit from these progressive boundary waves. There is nothing to lock them into a track. They can go to our south or north based on insignificant changes in amplitude. They have a relatively narrow area of heavy snow west to east that will only give a small portion of the east coast a win. But with a block and 50/50 if there is enough cold in the pattern you just need any strong wave to come along and crash into the confluence. The win zone is huge. It can try to cut and it will be turned east and we get a ton of snow to ice. It can take an imperfect track and will be forced under us. The precip coverage will be huge compared to these petty boundary waves because the wave is trying to gain latitude and throwing moisture up over the cold air locked in instead of these frustrating west to east waves where we’re at the mercy of a ton of variables any one of which can screw us over. sure we might get lucky this week. But over the long run this is a hard way to try to get a lot of snow. Throw a juiced up amplifying wave into cold with a blocked flow is simple with a huge margin for error where a minor amplitude shift won’t screw us out of snow!

We’ve had a decent number of snowstorms from a block where this one ends up. It’s a bit odd how it starts so far north but it retrogrades to Baffin Island which is where a block that starts centered over Greenland typically ends up. So in the end the effect should be the same but it starts out less than ideal which is why I’m not more optimistic for the wave next weekend. I think around the 20th and after we will have legit threats. Also we can get a AO driven snow but we need some help from either the PNA or EPO and we have that nice to around the 20th.

@Ralph Wiggum before you start a panic can we wait and see. I’m on the record sharing your concern. But if it’s true that strong high latitude blocks will continue to link to a SER the whole time we might as well just give up and stop tracking because that’s how we get 90% of both our HECS storms and BIG snow seasons. So what are we even doing here if you think it won’t work anymore? Let’s see how it plays out.

Jon Neese prefers a AVN NGM blend.

We’re on the same team finally

Yes but only when you’re in the jack 48 hours out and it screws you.

Some snow weenie in NE MD did something very very bad. One of y’all needs to fess up so they can make whatever sacrifice is necessary.

I dunno i was just trolling. We could debate that

Sorry I had to.

Let’s wait and see what the UK and Euro have to say before we panic over the worst of the global being south. Ric could win for sure but it’s not very climatological favored. Plus would be a shame that is below the “it’s supposed to snow” line. People they live there don’t deserve snow because any true snow weenie would never abide living somewhere that goes years without a snow and averages what I get in a few hours on a good day.

It has a disconnect with that fgen band to our SE. also that band is rain v snow on the gem. But I think that disconnect helps places north of DC.

Rgem is going to be a better run for the area. And remember gem will look very similar they’re essentially the same model.

Dayum the NAMs about to lay the wood on someone.

I like the trajectory better for MD. When the trajectory of the qpf is straight w-e is when it tends to sink south at game time. When it’s SW to NE is when it tends to trend north some rather end. This is in between which might mean some north nudge which is exactly what we need to keep DC in the jack but also extend it up to the northern MD folks.

Also @Ji it’s 160 out and look what it did in one run. If it adjusted 2 more times like this it’s a snowstorm. Not saying it will but not impossible

The TPV splits and the lobe to the east exits and the main one dropping is still centered west of us creating a weakness for a storm to cut into. This is typical as a block develops or often takes one wave amplification to get the boundary SE of us. It’s after that we should be set up good. My biggest fear for the waves Feb 20+ are miller b type fails not pure cutters.

Looks good to me

Once inside 84 hours you know what the gem looks like from the rgem. The rgem is just a higher res version. They won’t be significantly different the rgem will just show details slightly better. Frankly I’m not even sure if the rgem is all the much higher res now that they have the hrdrps I think they stopped upgrading the rgem. The hrdrps is often somewhat off from the gem.

When is this starting? I don’t want to be out when the advisory level event gets started. Any idea when it’s going to get bad?