psuhoffman

It not only trended more amped but colder too! So long as it doesn’t shift north more amped is good in a marginal temp setup. Of course it’s a tightrope because more amped can pump ridging in front and shift the boundary north. However, there is a window of opportunity here for both more amped but not north which the NAM just highlighted. That’s to get the wave to start to amp far enough east that it can’t pump too much ridging in front. It’s a thread the needle timing wise but it’s possible.

Come on I need about 8” more base to be able to ski the goat trail down the 350 feet of vertical behind my house.

My thought on the Nam through 54

EPS can’t decide which wave to key on but the 5 day period day 7-12 looks very promising.

This...the Arctic cold scenario greatly reduces our chances of a big snowstorm.

For the record I NEVER said suppression was a problem for these boundary waves coming up lol. The flow to our north is not suppressive at all.

@WxUSAF that Feb 2 thing didn’t get much attention because it wasn’t even on the radar until like 36 hours out. It was a weak wave buried between the two big storms that guidance didn’t see. Then even when it popped up it was a 3-6” snow 2 days before 2-3 feet was showing on guidance so it was an afterthought to everyone. No tracking and by the time it was snowing we were already under a watch for a HECS.

Not really. Yes in terms of the boundary but there is nothing to stop that from shifting and the typical bias on these progressive frontal waves the final 72 hours is more amplified and north. Even the euro. Think of those waves in Feb 2017 and 2018 that looked good for us at 48-100 hours and ended up a big snow for central PA.

Sometimes it’s just bad luck. 2018 was the reverse. Your area did a lot better wrt climo then DC or even my area. You got clipped by the coastals in early January and March that totally missed further west and you still did ok with the late March storm that did get DC. Sometimes there are screw zones in a given year and it’s more due to random chaos then anything else.

Didn’t DC just get it’s biggest snowstorm in over 2 years and 2nd biggest in 6 years?! But I will, and have, admitted the “we” I speak of is more DC/Balt metro and points west centric. I guess I do kind of ignore the eastern shore and lower MD and VA northern neck south. There are 2 reasons. 1. There are only a few posters here from there. 95% of the people here are DC/Balt or places west/north since there are more population centers west of the 95 metros then southeast. 2. The combination of low elevation, further south, and proximity to the ocean makes the snow climo there REALLY difficult. Frankly those areas need a different look and yes you probably do want arctic air because big snow is even more an anomaly so while a big Arctic airmass might still not work out it does increase the chances of an southern slider Arctic boundary wave that gains just enough latitude to clip those areas. The kinds of coastals that crush DC northwest are not really good for those areas. To get heavy precip DC to Hagerstown we need a low tucked into the Delmarva and that’s a rain track for you. You want a southern slider that clips you and me to be smoking cirrus. Look at the gfs ensembles. There are very few where we both get good snow. The members that give you a flush hit are pretty pathetic DC NW. the members that give DC area to me 10”+ are rain for you. it’s not impossible to get a storm that crushes both but it’s rare and walking a tightrope. You do want a colder antecedent airmass because to get an all snow hit you either need a progressive wave suppressed south of most of this forum or if it’s an amplified system the rare setup where there is so much cold that you get crushed during WAA before the warm layer can get in. But those are 1-2 times a decade type storms.

If the PV dumps west initially it could. But models are going to struggle with this pattern. A lot of extreme gradients and potential energy for them to resolve.

Yea but due to that 6” of sleet there was snowcover until mid March straight through. I was in northern VA and we mostly had bare ground all winter as it was mostly just freezing rain down there. We did get a 3” sleet storm in Feb that I think we like 8” of snow/sleet up here. ETA: 1994 was really only about avg snowfall up here (lots of mixed storms) but it was so cold it built up a 13” glacier snowpack and the coop up the road in Miller’s reported snowcover from the January 4 coastal that ended as 4” of snow until March 20th. Even absent a big all Snow event or above normal snowfall that would rank pretty high imo. Time with snowcover on the ground is probably the number 1 thing in my book. I dont know why. It’s probably some defect. But I just feel better when there is snow on the ground in winter.

Full tuck or bust

77 was pretty cold but I think it was not the duration...77 winter broke in early February I think. 94 was sustained cold from the arctic front on Xmas until March. The core of the cold was still further NW of us in 94 it was just SOOOOO cold it was still plenty cold here. But you don't want the PV over Ohio if you want snow.

77 I could deal with...because while it was MUCH below normal snowfall here (only about 55%) it was still better then 1985 and every inch didn't melt for weeks and this area slowly built up a 10" snow depth 2" at a time and had snowcover for like 6 weeks. That would be kind of cool even if a little disappointing to only get half of average snowfall with all that cold. 77 is ANOTHER example of why I don't chase arctic outbreaks. I am not kidding...our coldest periods usually do NOT coincide with our snowiest periods.

just messing with ya, it was a good piece of pattern recognition by you. I agree that there is an elevated threat of a storm there

AHEM

I was only 7 and living in NJ. All I know is according to the local coop here there was only 11.5" of snow the entire winter and no single event more then 3". In 132 years of records I compiled using coop data it was the 4th least snowy winter and the 2nd worse in terms of the most pathetic "greatest snowfall" at 3". Only 1950 was worse. It's one of only 3 years in 132 that didn't feature a warning level event here. I don't care how amazing that cold front was that would have been a horrible winter that I would never want to go through again and would probably try to block from my memory. Looking at records it was also much colder then average which is another reason I do not chase arctic outbreaks. The often do us no good wrt snow.

Why does everyone reference 1985 so much. I was too young to remember but looking at local records it was one of the least snowy winters ever here. Yet people bring it up a lot.

Also this is a temporary thing. That PV will slide east as the ridge in Canada retrogrades. This is too much panic for something that only impacts 2-3 days

The SE ridge will be suppressed somewhat. That is a LOT of cold pressing and a lot of blocking up top. We don't want to be in the core of the cold. That would be dry. We want to be near the boundary. This was a huge change from previous runs...guidance suddenly decided to split the PV and dump the larger part to our west which allows more ridge. But that can be a good thing if we end up near the boundary. GFS still ends up with a snowstorm just to our NW and then another just to our south. I highly doubt the boundary shifts so far NW that we are not at least in the game.

I’m not really tracking cold. I care about snow. Seeing the Arctic shot didn’t excite me. Now seeing too much eastern ridge is a problem. But if that is slightly overdone it’s fine for getting waves. I don’t want the PV over us.

The cold is still there it’s just dumping west initially not east.

Sunday isn’t dead imo. That’s the kind of wave that can trend better the final 72 hours. But it’s tricky and I’m not wasting time on every little trend at range.

It’s still lurking but gfs splits the PV and the dominant peace stays out west which pumps a ridge in the east. Previously guidance was elongating but sliding the dominant PV lobe east. The 6z eps went to that idea also.