psuhoffman

Fair enough. I have some mild OCD (legit not joking) so that’s very likely. Radar looks better then guidance att. We can always play that game lol.

When a run looks good I’ll weenie out with the rest of you. When things are trending better I am right there celebrating. But I’m not one of the people that does the “let’s lower the bar and pretend there isn’t a bad trend happening and how dare someone point out that said model got worse 4 runs in a row” type person either. Maybe this amps up at the last minute. I expected it too. I see no reason this gets shunted south. But it’s not a positive sign that EVERY guidance we have has trended dryer and more anemic the last 24 hours. Frankly I don’t understand the “don’t say negative stuff” mentality. Ignoring bad trends and warning signs doesn’t make them not real it just sets you up to be disappointed.

It’s not like we won’t get snow. I’m not canceling the event. But I guess I let myself get excited when yesterday the NAMs as well as the ICON, UK, and Euro (and all others were trending that way) were showing a dynamic amplified system with some really awesome banding potential. And when these kinds of waves start to trend more amplified it’s rare they suddenly fizzle. Typically that trend carries through the final 24 hours. So I am genuinely disappointed that guidance has since pulled the rug out on that more dynamic memorable scenario and reverted to a weaker more progressive wave. Still going to snow. A lot of people will still be very happy. Don’t let my disappointment at the high end being pulled off the table effect your enjoyment of a snowfall.

3k is warmer, dryer, and less amplified. But other then that it’s great.

I was looking at 3k. It’s not out far enough yet but man it looks kinda ehh at 8z Sunday compared to prior runs. The difference is a much less amplified trough so there is less moisture transport along the inverted trough with the NS low. The coastal looks about the same but a lot of our qpf was from the interaction with the trough and there is a lot less of that going on this run.

Yea but it was the only model still showing a nice upside thump potential. You don’t want to see the most amped guidance trending towards the other more anemic. We want to see the anemic guidance trending towards the NAM lol. That is if we want a 4-8” storm and not a 2-4. I’ll still enjoy a few inches to freshen things up but I was kinda excited for the dynamic thump option we saw on guidance 24 hours ago. This is morphing into a more mundane nice but not memorable snowfall event on guidance today. Which kind of surprises me I honestly expected the amplification trend to continue.

NAM looks kinda anemic early on. Hope it amps up quick or this won’t be as good as 12z. Which wasn’t as good as 0z which wasn’t as good as 18z...

Remember I work in Baltimore City. I’m well aware of just how amazingly historically awful it’s been for snow there the last 5 years.

If I lived where he does I would probably find the worst model every run and obsess over it also. It’s actually somewhat amazing how awful it’s been where he is. Even while the whole area has been in a rut for the last 5 years his area had been by far worse. Got screwed by every storm. Literally. While some east locations got the Jan 18 and March 18 storms and westerners got March 17 and 18 and December 20 and DC got the Jan 19 storm he got the screw zone of EVERYTHING. He hasn’t seen a warning event since 2016! So yea he is being a deb. But I might have had a nuclear meltdown if I was in his position by now.

Hope you don’t mind but moved this over from the other thread since it’s more pertinent here. Agree with both above. There are no comp examples I can think of where a wave like this sunk southeast at the last minute. The examples you cited like March 2014 and Feb 2015 had true Arctic air pressing and a TPV centered further east really compressing the flow. I can’t think of a single example of an amplifying wave with nothing but southwest flow and no vortex to the northeast that didn’t trend north some at the last minute. But I guess if you pay attention long enough there is a first for everything. But that’s why I was kind of surprised to see guidance shift a little southeast the last 2 runs but there is still time. I do expect it to juice up some later today and tonight.

Part of that is due to models being much higher resolution then before. The differences are in these meso banding that guidance couldn’t have even seen 20 years ago. Everything would have looked smoothed like the JMA on TT. Then we had to use climo and history to guess at the meso features. And in some ways maybe that was better. If you know how to actually use the models correctly and adjust it’s good but if you’re a weekend weather worrier who just rips and runs with a model verbatim having these details shift around on every model every run will drive you crazy.

I know. I said I expect it might juice up at 18/0z but all anyone seems to see is “he said it’s going to fail” because I pointed out the 12z guidance was dryer and why that wouldn’t be good.

There is extremism on both sides. On the one hand there was a 48 hour period of a steady amplification trend through yesterday’s 18z. And I do think it was fair to see the possibility that had that continued a legit 4-8 maybe 10” thump was possible. Some red tags were even pulling out the weenie vocabulary with fgen and instability banding. I think it’s fair to both point out that guidance is backing away from that scenario and be a little disappointed by that. On the other hand it’s still going to snow and just because it’s not 8” doesn’t mean people can’t enjoy a 2-4” event if that’s what it becomes. But some seem to get upset when i simply make an observation that guidance trended less amplified and on the other side some take that to the extreme and cancel the whole event.

Agreed

They will be at this range but there are, by my count, about 4 waves riding the Arctic boundary over the next 2 weeks. I wouldn’t invest too much in any one solution but odds we get a good hit from one of these waves (and maybe more) are high.

Now that we finally got cold into N America and there is no sign the blocking we’ve had all season will break, it keeps recycling every wave break, we might have a pretty extended favorable window.

I’m not predicting. I said I expected this to continue to amp up. But fact is on most guidance it’s going the wrong way right now. I did see the SREF run and that followed by the NAM was a good start to 12z. Since then it’s been a huge letdown. Everything else has gone the wrong way. We joke about hug the model with the most snow but how often does that work? It’s usually preponderance of evidence that wins. Maybe this is the time the snowy one wins. It happens. I have expected to see a continued amp trend and am kind of shocked this reversed course. Maybe it juices up at 18z or 0z. That’s very possible. I’m simply making observations and there are more not good ones then I like to see right now. Let me finish by saying we’re probably still safe for some snow but I’m worried the solutions yesterday we were giddy over with talk of crazy fgen and 2”hr rates and someone getting 10” is slipping away and that’s what I’m in this for. I don’t really invest in 1-3” events.

HRDRPS trended weaker SE

The NAMs sometimes set the narrative too much since they come out first. But the fact is 18z yesterday was the high water mark wry amplitude across guidance. Since then taken in totality there has been a trend weaker with the system. The NAMs are the only guidance I’ve seen 12z yet that bucked that trend. Everything I just said is simply observation of guidance. No prediction. I’ve expected a continued trend towards a more amplified system but the truth is that halted 18z and since gone the wrong way.

It’s going to snow. The problem is how much. And that’s tricky because of very marginal temps. If this was cold smoke a general 4-8” with local 10” call would be pretty safe. But the problem here is with very borderline barely cold enough to accumulate temps rates are important. Normally the difference between getting .4 qpf and .7 would be 4” or 7” which would both ball in a 4-8” range. But there is a huge difference here where .7 over 6 hours could be a 6” thump that overcomes temps while .4 over that same 6 hours doesn’t cool the boundary layer as much so it’s 34 instead of 33 and with lighter rates it’s 1-2” of slush on non paved surfaces! Now the forecast busted.

Not the 12z ARW. It is VERY dry. NMB is actually wetter ironically previous run for comparison

Your location has kinda been the snow anus of the region lately. And because of that (understandably imo) you’ve been a bit of a deb. Because of that though some probably just assume you are debbing even when your point is legit.

Other then the NAMs, the early hints across other 12z guidance (hrrr, ARW, NNB, HRW, Icon, RGEM) is a continuation of the trend towards less amplified and thus less qpf. That’s bad for everyone. With marginal temps the extreme rates are necessary to get good accumulations. This is a setup where there is an exponential effect. It’s not like .8 qpf = 8” and .5= 5”. This is a setup where .8 could be 7” and .5 could be 1- 2”. 6 hours of moderate snow won’t work here. We need that OMG face banding on the coastal plain.

HREF looks nice Imo

Not “worried” but there has been a definite slight shift southeast on guidance so far tonight. That’s not what the northwest crew from Winchester to Mappy wanted to see. But it was minor and could be noise. 6z could easily resume the NW trend we saw the last 48 hours.