psuhoffman

Last comment on the SREF because it’s already 3 comments too many but it’s good news and we haven’t had enough so F it... they didn’t really trend northwest what they did was the more common juice up the NW fringe of the precip field thing. Notice how tight the back edge is now on that gif I posted above.

File this under oddity. Likely nothing more. But the NMB members which have a notorious dry/suppressed bias trended the wettest/snowiest.

SREF improved. Hopefully the start of the last minute shift I’ve been waiting for impatiently.

Two things can be true. Analyzing the runs as they come in and pointing out it looks worse doesn’t stop you from enjoying snow. If I get 2” tomorrow I’ll still enjoy the snow while it’s falling the same as if I hadn’t posted analysis of a bad model run. Those are mutually exclusive. I analyze every run the same. When it’s good I say why it’s good. I’m not like BTR thanksgiving and some others who only posts when it’s bad and says why it won’t snow. I’ll write a F’ing dissertation on how awesome a run was and how much snow we’re gonna get. But when it sucks I say why it sucks. No one complains after a good run when I explain why it was awesome...but when I pick apart a really awful model run the exact same way and explain why it could mean we won’t get much snow I sometimes get pushback. It’s the same analysis. It’s just not what people want to hear.

Is there a reason every storm since 2016 with the exception of 2019 has trended the wrong way for us right before gametime? We’re paying the price for 2010 to 2016. We’ve had periods when everything trended our way more then it should have. Remember all those waves in 2014 and 2015 that looked like nothing 72 hours out and we got 6”+ of snow. It’s just been not our luck lately. It will turn around. My guess very soon. First let’s not totally give up on tomorrow. Weirder things have happened. Maybe this pulls one of those NW bands no guidance picks up on. But the pattern ahead will be very difficult not to score in. We will have LOTS of chances. If somehow we fail every time we need to figure out who in here drank Jobu’s rum right quick.

Omg my 1.5” Jack lol

Imo this isn’t a case of Ji freaking out over some day 7 solution trending 10 miles the wrong way. In the last 24 hours we went from this... with red tags discussing crazy fgen bands with thunder snow and 2” hr rates and possible 10” jackpots being likely to... And praying we can get enough rates to accumulate and hang on to a few inches. Yesterday we were legitimately on the cusp of a significant area wide 6-10” snowstorm and no that wasn’t some pipe dream that people were foolish to believe was possible. All guidance was heading that way and trending towards an amplified storm. Then it got pulled out from under us the last 24 hours. I actually think, given how gut wrenching the trends have been the last 24 hours given we were on the verge of a truly memorable event and now it looks very anemic and ordinary...the lack of freak outs and complaining has been admirable. Even Ji hasn’t blown up the thread at all.

It had a little band aided by upslope that rode up the blue ridge. But look what happened east of you lol.

Not just an op though...

For DC it can’t get worse. It showed nothing.

@Bob Chill I’m not predicting this...I’ve been expecting it to juice up at the last minute all along so might as well ride that to the end. But while we keep playing the “well at least it’s gonna snow” game everytime things degrade a little more and a little more each run the last 24 hours....we really are only one more deamplification trend from this being close to a non event. Frankly one more trend exactly the same as the one from 12z to 18z and I probably don’t get much precip at all so my colder temps don’t help. 95 went from like .6-.75 across guidance 12z to .3-.5 18z. One more adjustment to like .25-.3 and suddenly you’re talking mostly non accumulating rain snow mix. Even though I don’t think it comes to that...I also think because about 24 hours ago things looked so great and we had so much leeway to at least get a decent snow and it’s been a slow gradual bleed each run...that people don’t realize a complete fail isn’t impossible now. We’re trending too close for comfort. Latest HRRR spit out the total fail scenario.

Wow you ain’t kidding. Now that’s a Ji worthy disaster run.

12.2

Didn’t 1996 take FOREVER to advance north or maybe it just felt that way to impatient 17 year old me.

A few years back there was a very marginal snow and the typical soil temps argument flared up and I didn’t want to admit I had a few inches of snowcover for fear of the mob that might show up with pitch forks.

Non paved surfaces have a shot

It’s been a few years. There was a noticeable difference once you get north of that first of the 3 ridges that make up Parrs Ridge in northern Carroll. The one that runs right through Manchester. There was much less south of that ridge. Once you get north of Manchester that high valley where Ebb Valley School is and north had a lot more snow. Still my yard being on the north slope of Dug Ridge helps too. Still full coverage here. From my evening walk around the yard an hour ago.

I did get about 4” more. It helps that I’m on the north slope of the ridge. Im also 400 feet higher up then Westminster. I know that I am always 3-4 degrees colder then the Westminster Airport which is only 7 miles away. That’s kinda crazy.

If a snowflake falls in the forest

But the negative hemisphere energy budget -TNH if the +GLAM

I went to Westminster today. Legit shocked at the difference in snowcover. I still have 6-10” full snowpack but in town there was barely any with a lot of bare ground. Probably only 60% coverage. Huge difference for only like 8 miles as the crow flies.

I’m fine with ice so long as I get a good amount of snow under it to turn into a glacier that lasts until Easter.

EPS Probability of 12”

Dec 2016 I think

What were the next 3 weeks like after that Feb 1960 analog? Asking for a friend.