psuhoffman

Sorry. We needed the more amped up solution to cool the boundary layer. It’s not just the precip. Yea we have good moisture transport out of the gulf streaming north ahead of the NS trough but the more amped coastal would have added a northerly surface wind component and helped a little. Might still. The low seems to be a little slower getting it’s act together. Maybe we get a late save as it passes the outer banks if it can amplify enough.

No sympathy for your former location?

Looks like a little over 2” here. I’m still at 32. That’s never good when I’m 32 at 1000 ft during heavy snow.

When last year was that? All I remember was a raging +AO all winter

I still very much like the overall pattern. Multiple chances coming. But would be nice to get a hit from the first one.

Unfortunately I don’t like where this is heading

A couple days ago maybe

I wasn’t comparing radar to ground qpf. I was comparing modeled radar to actual radar. It was more expensive at 3z. That’s not subjective. Then you said that you prefer to use upper level ROAB and ground qpf reports then when I explained why that’s not really feasible in real time here you moved the goal posts. You can argue radar comps don’t matter. They aren’t the best but with a newly blossoming area of precip it’s the best you can do until you get ground reports but by then we will pretty much know in this case. But there was a more expansive precip field in the TN valley at 3z then any simulated one on the guidance I checked. Not sure why you want to die on this hill.

Gfs and icon both shifted way north with the waves this week. Hopefully just a bad op run and not a trend.

I hope the NAMs didn’t head fake us again

Can’t do that yet since the precip is breaking out now. By the time those observations come in its practically going to be time to see where the banding sets up. You’re making too much from it. There is a slightly more expensive precip shield down south then modeled but I didn’t say that’s definitely a sign this is going to be better. Just made the observation and said it could be a good thing.

There is a lot of truth here...but I think there was a moment yesterday when thinking a 6-10” storm was likely wasn’t a weenie overreaction. Just look at what some red tags were saying! That wasn’t the max run either. There were a couple NAM runs that showed 12-16”. At a point yesterday when all guidance was indicating 6”+ was very likely and things were steadily trending the right way I think setting a bar of a 6” storm was realistic. For some (me) it’s not that easy to just go into “oh well at least it will snow” mode. Maybe that’s because I’m a big storm chaser not a snow chaser. And by big storm it doesn’t have to be 20”. That 3” squall I had last winter was awesome. That was memorable. 6” in 4 hours is memorable. This is just me, and I know most don’t agree and that’s cool, but I could care less about a 2” storm. Yea while it’s happening I’ll enjoy it some and it’s fine but I don’t track for that. Frankly I would rather a winter where I got 10” all in one storm then a winter with 30” that all fell 1-3” at a time. That’s a whole lot of blah to me. But I don’t begrudge anyone enjoying the crap out of 1” of snow. Good for them! I do think a couple were going too far with the debbing. Some were making it even worse then it was. I felt like all I was doing was analyzing the runs same as I always do only since they were bad the observations were “it’s bad”.

Had the guidance trended better today it would have been good. Yesterday was awesome and the thread was a weenie fest. Today the guidance was one nut punch after another and so the thread got negative. There is a correlation.

Wait was that you coming out of the dispensary in Westminster earlier today???

Compare the 3k NAM radar at 3z and 4z to what’s happening now. The precip is more expansive and the trajectory is more north then the 3k has it. Doesn’t necessarily extrapolate but it’s not a bad sign Imo.

The SS SW is in Arkansas moving into TN now. That precip breaking out in TN is associated with lift ahead of it. That’s what will become the area of precip that will affect us tomorrow so seeing it outperform guidance is good.

If the nams can't handle a storm 6 hours away....what's the purpose lol? Ask Weather53

Radar in central TN, which is the energy that becomes our banding, is more pronounced then the guidance has it at 3z.

No last Icon bailed and was pretty crappy

Rgem obviously came west some but hard to tell much from just the crappy precip type panels which is all that’s updated.

agree...the NAMs faked us 12z then the rest of the run sucked. So far the other early 0z guidance isn’t as inspired. The HRRR and ARW were kinda meh. I’ll feel a lot better if the RGEN and ICON show a similar juiced up soliton in the next 30 mins. Otherwise the NAMS might just be doing NAM things again.

That’s why I didn’t post on Wintery Mix after the 18z train wreck. I had a feeling 0z might reverse course and didn’t want to ping pong.

It’s because you came back.

Much better fgen this run. That’s a banding signature that supports heavy rates.

NAM and SREF threw us a false flag to start 12z so I’ll try to remain reserved until I see some ancillary evidence soon but this was a very good start. I assume no one will mind when I analyze these good runs lol.