psuhoffman

It’s 8–10 NW of 95 from all 3 waves. There are some snizzle and light mix periods in there that added up tack on an extra .1-.2 qpf that wouldn’t be accumulating snow. But I am not arguing it wasn’t a good run. I was just describing it verbatim. Ji can let you know how it sucks! Btw the weekend wave is close. DC is on the edge of a bigger snow. The wave gets it’s act together just a bit too late. Yea I know sounds familiar but one of these will work out eventually.

When are you posting about the ultimate fail scenario where wave 1 is dry and wave 2 stays south You just did it for me. Thanks

I mean it cut my qpf by about 50% with wave 1 so...that seems like a lot to me

UK weekend wave is a general 1-3" snowfall across the area. Pretty weak wave but colder then other guidance.

UK looks a lot colder for the weekend threat in the mid levels...

UK, wave 1 was significantly dryer and wave 2 was a little better...NET total for both events is a 4-8" snowfall across the area...NW VA jack of around 8". Step down from 0z which was a general 6-10" across the area but still a nice event that jacks our area.

UKMET looks worse for wave 1 but it might be better for the follow up wave Friday...looks like a lot more energy left behind. Wave 1 is still a nice little snow but it cut back on qpf a bit.

UK is south and a lot weaker/dryer with the wave so far out to 60

it jacks DC with the narrow banding of snow Wed/Thursday. Then misses south with the follow up wave.

if we can get a 1994 replay but with some blocking to shift the boundary like 50-100 miles south...imagine

CMC looks decent for the first wave Wed into Thursday for the DC area but misses south with the follow up wave, nice snow in central/southern VA with that.

pretty big ice storm as is...but like the trend. It's one more small adjustment from a big snow event or at least Snow/Ice

I feel a weenie gfs run in progress

I am totally cool with it...and I am ok with a smaller snow event from this... but I think some in and around the DC/Baltimore area feel they are due a major snow event and are chasing a flush hit. If this turns into a weak wave where the jack is only 2-4" they won't be happy even if they are that jack...so for them seeing the ICON trend towards a less significant event overall was a fail...even if it had the jack zone over them. For people that would be totally happy with a 3-4" all snow event...it was a great run. For people that want a bigger event it was a move in the wrong direction (away from the euro more significant camp). Just a matter of perspective

What's amazing is the NAM goes off the reservation (compared to all other guidance) by only hour 24. Notice its way further north with the wave tomorrow and that simply carries through the run to the next wave. All other guidance has the snow with that next wave running just north of the PA line into central PA tomorrow while the NAM has it up in northern PA. That is a crazy difference for only 24 hour lead times.

RGEM looked like it was setting up something big after though...wave really organizing to our southwest with the thermal boundary just to our south...was likely to be "something" after.

ICON with a big ice storm over the weekend to turn our snow into a glacier.

I agree with that...I was simply commenting on the probabilities of a "big" snowstorm regarding the pattern. People can "feel" however they want about the snow that falls.

That looks like the wave in March 99

This is 100% true if we are talking about HECS level snowstorms. But frankly it's only in the last 20 years they have become common enough to even be a "thing" that we chase. When I first started this it was KU or MECS level events that were the BIG DOGS. HECS or 20" plus type storms were so rare it wasn't even worth a thought. Then they started happening every few years and so it became a thing. But it is really only a thing under one VERY specific pattern, a Moderate or stronger Nino with a -NAO. 6 of the last 7 HECS storms fall under that category with the one exception being 1996. Yes I know technically the NAO was neutral in the 2003 storm but there was a massive north atlantic vortex that simulated the exact same thing as a -NAO so essentially it was a de facto same pattern. Point is a moderate to strong nino with blocking is the only situation that makes a widespread 20" type storm likely in the mid atlantic. But if we lower the bar to a KU or MECS level event I don't think the nina really affects our chances much at all so long as we have blocking. If we look at Nina's in the last 30 years that featured significant blocking periods we got a MECS/KU level storm in 96, 2000, 2006, 2011 and March 2018 would have DEFINITELY been at least a MECS maybe HECS level storm if it hadn't been March 21 and the blocking had set in earlier that winter. I also don't think the close miss in 2011 had anything to do with the nina. There was a nice STJ feed and that was a miller A, we just got really unlucky with a vort and that can happen in a nino also...remember December 2018! That was just bad luck. We almost had another HECS nina event imo. The only Nina winter with significant blocking that failed to produce a MECS event here was 2001 which is historic for its fail's. I think if we run the table with blocking we should expect at least one flush hit of a MECS level and if we don't get one I do think that counts as a fail (on the level of 2001) regardless of the nina status.

I remembered years ago in the fall of an impending Nina (I think it was 2016-17) I did some seasonal research and was shocked to find that what makes a Nina so terrible isn’t that it mutes an NAO. It’s that we suck monkey nuts and get NO snow unless we get a -NAO and since those are exceedingly rare since the 80s... So I went back and found my files and updated them with the last few years. These are the actual splits for every -NAO month since 1990 at BWI. I hate using DCA. It’s depressing and I do think BWI is more representative of most in the 95 corridor. December La Niña -NAO avg snow 2.2” 17% above avg Non Nina -NAO Avg snow 6.1. 40% above avg so yes in December a Nina mutes the NAO. So this years challenged start despite a -NAO in hindsight should have been expected but get a load of this... January Nina -NAO avg 15.9” 67% above avg Non Nina -NAO AVG 5.6” 50% above avg February nina -NAO avg 16.1” 100% above avg non Nina -NAO avg 11.5” 50% above avg March nina -NAO avg 3.6” 50% above avg non Nina -NAO avg 1.0” 25% above avg So in January to March our mean snowfall with a -NAO is actually HIGHER in a Nina then non Nina months and our chances of having an above avg snowfall month is higher in a -NAO Nina. The reason Nina’s suck is actually because a -NAO is pretty rare and they are horrid without one. When I did my warning event snowfall study I don’t think there was a single Nina one in the whole 70 year study without a -NAO! We simply do not snow much without a -NAO in a Nina. But the truth is a -NAO seems to have the same effect, and maybe even better, in a Nina as in other enso states.

1958 and 1960 kept showing to in analogs. Maybe that wasn’t crazy.

@Bob Chill so this is where all 3 majors leave us going into late February AFTER our run the next 2 weeks. Lol

looks like the euro snow map basically