psuhoffman

@high risk something to keep in mind as this gets inside 30 hours or so....the NAM won that fight with all other guidance yesterday regarding the wave today to our north. Everything else that showed a nice snow event in central PA into N NJ and NYC area busted and the NAM was right taking that north.

Given the pattern I think you have a very good chance to hit and exceed 30” this year.

I guess you missed that day in school but 2 days is not the same as 6 days. The number 4 would like a word with you.

Omg yea. Technically 1994 was only mean snowfall up here but the local coop had snowcover from the first week of January until March 20 and at one point it was about 15” of half snow half ice! That would have been awesome.

I don't think it will be that high...but up here higher ratios in general are common and I don't think the 11-1 it would take to make .55 qpf a 6" snowstorm is unrealistic even given the less ideal DGZ representation. But this is getting REALLY REALLY REALLY nitpicky for a UK run. So maybe they should have said 5-10" instead of 6-10 lol.

@mappy sorry I just saw the other posts...I was not trying to pile on, and your comment was 100% accurate going by the snow map...I was just trying to point out that in reality if the UK ACTUALLY was accurate it probably would be a 6-7" snow for us and others along the PA line.

It's about 5.5 qpf for our area....that is very likely about 6 if not 7" of snow with the ratios we will get up here. I do think the characterization of a general 6-10 storm for the PA line south on the UK was accurate, bad map reading aside.

I have never used the ignore feature but I am getting close

My victory bar for this up here is 4". Just freshen up the snowpack ahead of all the ice coming over the weekend. Fail is less then 2".

EXACTLY

There is some support in the data that for DC and Baltimore the odds and frequency of BIG snowstorms is increasing but the frequency of just snow in general is declining. That makes perfect sense actually. More big storms increases the odds we catch some of them by chance. But a little bit of warming is going to hurt us more often with a lot of the typical marginal snow events that were common in DC and Baltimore. When I did my every warning event at BWI case study a few years ago...when it came to the 5-10" type events it was a VAST majority that were near 32 degrees and featured some mixing. This kind of a data tagline was VERY common.... a 6" storm from 1.1 qpf with a high that day of 35 and a low of 31. I mean...you can figure out from that what kind of storm that was...and what happens if you add say 2 degrees to that exact event?

Moving this here not to clutter the storm thread. Yes...to both of you. The whole 95 urban corridor has been awful and Baltimore has been literally the rip off zone for the last 5 years of the whole larger rip off zone. You have missed storms just north, south, east, and west and somehow avoided even one single flush hit since January 2016. It's been amazing frankly. But like I told Baltimorewx a couple days ago...while I do think bad luck is certainly a portion of this...and that will eventually turn around and you will get a flush hit sooner or later...I do think a significant portion of this is indicative of a larger problem that wont go away. There have been numerous events over the last 5 years that I am 100% certain would have been a nice snow event for Baltimore if this was 30 years ago. The other day was a great example. I kind of compared that to the one warning event we had in 1997. Very similar in terms of track, intensity, antecedent airmass, qpf, and time of year. Only that wave ended up just cold enough and was a 32 degree 6" snowstorm in Baltimore. This time with almost the same situation and qpf it was a 35 degree mostly white rain event. So...what's changed in that time??? There was another good example that comes to my mind in February 2016 with a perfect track system and upper low but it produced mostly white rain in Baltimore. Both those events I got 7" and 8" up here...but BARELY. Even at 1000 ft up here I was 33-34 degrees during both of those snow events. Places with some elevation NW of 95 have been able to hang on and overcome the climo changes so far with these marginal events...but I think the difference between up here and Baltimore is becoming even greater recently. Looking at past records...when I would get a 30-40" winter up here Baltimore was typically around 20". But the last few times I had a winter like that Baltimore was in the single digits!!! Recently the only time Baltimore has a good winter is when I get like 75"+ up here. The disparity is growing as places with elevation have been able to barely hold on to snow and even hit some bigger events due to the increased occurrence of big precip events...these crazy 20" plus storms are becoming a multiple time a winter type normal occurrence lately (even if they don't all affect our area). But along 95 so many of the snowstorms that propped up your avg and filled in the gaps between those rare big storms were 3-6 and 4-8" type events that were VERY marginal temp wise and those are becoming increasingly mix/rain events now. Even up here I am not sure how much longer I am going to hold on to those types events. 1-2 more degrees and a lot of those don't even end up well up here. I can think of numerous 5" plus events up here in the last 10 years where the temps were above freezing during heavy snow. If I am 33 degrees during 2" an hour rates with a perfect track coastal in mid winter....that is REALLY bad for 95!

You have somehow avoided a flush hit and that’s kinda frustrating...I do get that everything has to be in perspective and given the amazingly good pattern you could easily have 10” more with some luck, but still you’re only like 4” from going above climo (I’m about 8) and that’s a very likely number to reach given the look ahead. So it’s not been that bad.

Central.

I think this might end up a more widespread uniform light to moderate event if the two waves don’t overlap their Jack zones.

Yea all told it’s like 8” of snow and 3-4” of sleet/freezing rain in the DC area. Lol

The primary hangs on too long. Just from the track I would think maybe some snow to mix north of 70 with mostly ice south of 70

Wave 2 is THE real game wrt fun rates but that looks like a VA special.

Not complaining, this probably just isn’t my storm and that 100% ok. But a lot of the oro factors won’t help us here. There isn’t a strong surface low so not much of a easterly fetch to help with upslope. And dry air is eating in. This is similar to those waves in March 2014 and the one in 2015 and somewhat similar to the first part of the Chill 2019 storm where DC and VA did much better then up here.

I wouldn’t assume a north trend. This is more similar to some of the waves over the years that didn’t.

I think anyone expecting the euro clown map numbers will likely be let down. These kinds of weak non amplifying overrunning waves historically put down 2-4 or 3-6”. The euro was getting those crazy totals by training the moisture feed over the same places for 48 hours and unrealistic ratios. Both are unlikely. But it could be a nice solid snowfall and sometimes you get lucky and these are more but banking on 8”+ from this kind of synoptic setup is setting yourself up to be disappointed again.

I’m not impossible to satisfy. I just want a March 58 repeat where I get 50” of wet snow from 5” qpf with no wind so it just piles up uniformly but I want it during prime climo and after that storm passes I want an ice storm with 5” of sleet ended as a half inch of freezing rain to encase my snowpack and protect it then an Arctic front that drops temps below 0 and about 2 weeks without getting above freezing and cloudy most of the time preferably. That’s all I ask.

If that’s all from one storm maybe

I’m just analyzing the run. The second wave doesn’t gain any latitude. Not a forecast. Just a factual statement of this run. And Baltimore gets screwed by it so...think you would care about the observation.

NAM improved with wave 1. Not sure it’s in useful range for wave 2 yet.