psuhoffman

you need to take long range guidance holistically. Yes this one GEFS run was (oddly) further north with the waves next week and so cut back the snow mean in DC a bit. But the last several runs of the GEFS were all further south then the op and were snowy next week. The op this run was south. The GGEM is south. The UK is so south is squashes the wave. The last run the euro trended south. The seasonal trend from that range is south. If you take the full scope and preponderance of evidence its good. If you just laser in on the one thing that is not good you will just agitate yourself for no reason. The GEFS could, and probably will, shift back south next run.

What are you doing? It's bizzarro world in here tonight

yea because it crushes it with the cold press... totally different problem then what everyone was worried about a few hours ago.

yea well he is a little uneven but over in the other thread he picked up on losetoa6 being upset with me over comments I made and tried to jump on board. I do think you are unnecessarily or overly hostile at times but that is your style and its been your thing for a long time and it doesn't bother me much...but it has at times bothered some others. But there is no law that says you have to be nice so you do you.

@losetoa6 no one here, especially myself, wants you to leave.

Naw his beef is with me because I call him out on his ridiculous BS nonsense and now he wants to buddy up with someone else who I ACCIDENTALLY offended as if they are on the same side.

Just stop accusing people of things when you have absolutely no evidence. That is slander. There is no place for it. If you actually have proof that there is some conspiracy like you suggest then show it. Prove it. Otherwise stop making stuff up and slandering people.

I don't care if he wants to spout crazy that the guidance is no good...he is wrong imo but whatever, that is his opinion. But I cannot stand his assertions that there is some kind of nefarious conspiracy by the people who program NWP to intentionally mislead. He makes these accusations without a shred of evidence to substantiate them. Its slander against some really brilliant and principled people, some of whom participate in this very thread. I know most choose to just ignore him but I just can't stomach that he thinks its acceptable to make those kinds of unfounded accusations against people in this forum.

Should I set up a glacier tours of Maryland business?

I didn't mean to attack or offend him. Whatever I said to upset him was unintended. I INTEND to attack you and will continue to so long as you continue to make the unsubstantiated and unwarranted SLANDER that you perpetrate against the dedicated scientists (some of whom frequent this board) who work in NWP! It's disgusting and ridiculous and you should be ashamed of yourself!

I am honestly not sure what you took as an attack...but I am sorry I upset you.

Look at what the storm for Friday looked like when it was 150 hours away. There is a VERY predictable and repetitive pattern this season of guidance wanting to phase systems with the NS to our west and cut things into the blocking...and it has never actually happened. We have missed a few perfect track systems because of lack of cold, we have missed a couple storms because they phased off the coast too late, and we missed a few storms that got suppressed. They have not been cutting like that despite what guidance shows 150-200 hours away.

Oh look guidance adjusting south in the day 5-7 period...SHOCKED. You mean storms don't just cut up into 1045 high pressure systems with a -5 stdv AO. BTW earlier today out of curiosity I was cycling back several days on the guidance and at that range they showed this storm upon us now (that might even end up south of some of us) cutting and almost in the exact same way they were showing the system next week...by over emphasizing the northern stream and phasing too much with the TPV in the upper midwest...and you could see them adjust and do less and less and less each run until it ended up a wave going under us. Not shocked to see signs of the same adjustment.

is the guidance that divergent...or are we just giving too much weight to ONE MODEL. Yea I know its "the king" but its prone to errors just like the others. While better its scores are not so superior that it should be taken against all other evidence. Right now it seems to be completely on its own with wave 1 which is only 24 hours away. That is a big deal because we are now in range that the 0z meso guidance coming out should be given some significant weight and it all agrees with a more north wave 1 like the GFS/ICON/GGEM. The euro is a little south with wave 2...but not THAT much, its the differences wave 1 that make it look so crazy off...and plus if we cannot trust its representation of wave 1 why can we trust what it is showing wave 2? IMO its likely the euro is just having an issue here. If we ignore it...the rest of guidance isn't really that far apart from each other imo.

don't let it affect you she is like that to EVERYONE

I think wave 2 comes far enough north that there is some overlap between the southern boundary of snowfall with wave 1 and the northern boundary with wave 2. But there will likely be a bit of a minimum in between the two maxes from the waves...and yea there is a risk that is near your area. I think wave 2 juices up some though and might give a late save.

They make simulations which meteorologists use to help make forecasts. And a lot of those recent snowfall forecasts have also busted pretty badly in his location. I think the tone of his post was fair.

The euro is pretty much on its own though with wave 1 which is only 24 hours away now. The meso models all disagree and so do the rest of the globals. That is a pretty strong case the euro is just off with wave 1. Wave 2 the euro is a little south of other guidance but its really wave 1 being so dry on the euro that causes the extreme difference in the total storm representation.

100% this post... but even with synoptic scale storms I've noticed the last few years a level of expectation that can't possibly be met. Expecting to pin down exactly where the rain snow line will be from 100 hours away. Or where the northern fringe is or where a deform band will set up to within a few miles. By the time the storm comes people are exhausted because they started trying to nowcast those details when it was still 7 days away.

This is all because we are pushing for a level of detail at ranges that NWP is not capable of giving yet. It is getting MUCH better. Day 5 forecasts are more accurate then day 3 was not that long ago. But when I first started doing this no one took day 5 or even day 3 seriously in terms of gleaning very meso scale specific details. Trying to nail the exact rain snow line to within 20 miles, or the exact location of the northern fringe of precip with a synoptic wave. But now we start trying to do that at day 5 or even longer range. That is crazy and while the guidance has gotten better, not at the same rate as our ridiculous expectations.

well...if that is wave 1 screw wave 2. DC can have all of wave 2 then.

These are all just waves along the boundary that has a ton of potential energy due to the extreme temperature contrast

That much!!!??? what else is new

yea I noticed the setup is significantly better for next week at the end of the run. Hard to keep up with the details of all the different threats right now.

It wasn't meant as an attack on you...and I apologize if it came off that way. But I guess I was saying I understand the less enthusiastic tone coming from most of this forum compared to your excitement. If I was living in Baltimore, and I think of lot of them feel this way, I wouldn't give a crap about models or tracking or ANYTHING except getting some freaking snow on my lawn right freaking now at this point. They have waited years to get a decent snowfall and have been nothing but teased endlessly this winter. You love the chase and that is awesome...I love the chase also but at some point there has to be a payoff or it gets frustrating imo. We have had a payoff up here. I was just pointing out that I hope they get a hit very soon, hopefully this week, so the mood in here doesn't get depressing.