psuhoffman

Do you measure with the waves or between them?

Euro took a very positive step for the storm next week. A couple more shifts like that is all we need.

Euro baby step for the weekend. Wave more amped and juiced but the high is stronger and cold pressing a bit more also.

On the euro but I kinda thought it was off it’s rocker from the beginning. I think the gfs and NAM was always indicating problems with the first wave. But I thought the second would get you as the cold pressed. Ended up pressing too much and squashed it.

Your snow was supposed to come mostly from the 2nd wave which got suppressed too far south.

Hopefully Baltimore breaks it’s jinx with this one

Or a really wild 40th birthday party

I was curious why you think this wave will key on the NS SW track v the SS? All season it seems to be a long range error to phase the streams in the midwest and in reality the SS ends up riding out ahead of the NS along the coastal boundary.

On the one hand the op GFS does drop 11" of snow on DC through the run. I mean getting median snowfall in a 2 week period isnt a bad run. On the other hand it does it by fringe after fringe after fringe with not a single flush hit and drops 40" not far to the NW so that part sucks. But you adjust that just a smidge SE and...

UK looked good at 144 for the wave next week imo.

fixed

That area has a better shot from the main (2nd) wave but might be a little too north.

The main wave is actually trending south so much so it will screw DC even. That was the wave I was counting on to give a flush hit to VA and DC. I didn't think it would trend north but I also didn't think it would end up suppressed completely. I figured with the cold pressing...it still is...that would limit its northward push. Problem is the waves split too much and the initial WAA wave rides north BEFORE the cold starts to press and then the cold press suppresses the main wave. DC found a complicated way to fail. Congrats

Guess I’m too far south lol

depends...if you focus on the NS yes. But the trend this year is for the NS and SS not to phase and for the SS SW to run out ahead and ride the costal baroclinic boundary. If this is the time they all phase up in the ohio valley like guidance has shown at range ALL YEAR..then yes. I am betting the seasonal trend holds.

It is, with big qpf events increasing places that have just enough latitude or elevation to overcome the warming (which is most pronounced in the boundary layer) actually are getting more snowstorms. But places that couldnt afford to add a few degrees and stay snow...womp womp

Starts as snow along 95, stays all snow from IAD NW. Sleet mixes in along 95.

PARA.... it makes more sense synoptically imo also. Guidance has been phasing the SS with the NS out to our west all season at that range when in reality they have remained separate with the SS running the polar not the arctic boundary. No reason to think this next wave will be any different.

@WinterWxLuvr one possible bright side to our changing climo though...is if this winter is indicative that perhaps even Nina's will trend more active in the future then perhaps our nina climo might not be as hostile to big snowstorms as it once was...provided we get some blocking. Honestly this year I think bad luck has a lot more to do with things then pattern. 2 HECS level storms missed DC and Baltimore by a hair geographically. I don't think there was anything inherently wrong with the pattern that caused that...it was just bad luck. We will have a few more chances for that luck to even out. This wouldn't be the first year though this happened...there are other years where the pattern was better then the results due to bad luck and just missing a few storms. 2018 was one of those in DC. 2013 and 2001 are famous for that. 1969. There are examples in other places where we got the luck and they got screwed like NYC in 1987. There are also examples of years where we outperformed the pattern like 2014 and 2000 imo.

There are 2 types of Nina's though. Ones with a more suppressed pac heat flux and central pac ridge...and ones that have a more poleward heat flux and more blocking, either in the EPO or NAO side. This year is most definitely the second. In those nina types historically cold has no problem coming east and we have had some major cold periods in those types. What typically mutes our snowfall in those nina's is the lack of STJ and so we often have long dry cold periods. This year has been odd in that the STJ has been much more active then normal and we have had no shortage of systems tracking under us, and we have had a more poleward heat flux and great blocking...but yet we continue to suffer from slight temperature issues storm after storm despite those facts.

Sorry I was trying to will this one south. Maybe if I set up my high velocity fan from my classroom and face it south...

It would but it’s hypothetically possible for a reduction in data to effect one more then other depending on how much they rely on initialization.

Shocking it caved to ALL OTHER GUIDANCE

For wave 2 more then a north trend from the boundary wave what I’m curious is if the precip associated with the upper level dynamics which actually track right over is juiced up some. Wouldn’t take much because ratios would be very high under that. Juice that up to like .25 qpf and everyone gets a nice little 3-4” at the end.

Not good for dt Richmond 10 Short pump gets shorted