psuhoffman

the hell you say! ICE...lots and lots and lots of ICE and dump trucks...we can solve this. Where is that American can do spirit!

But there was no HECS storm in 2015 or 2014 and those were considered good winters. You are right...there wouldn't have been a HECS storm this year so far in DC regardless of the temp issues but let me make a point by playing an "alternate universe" where its 2C colder from 700mb on down in DC. I think this is a fair temp to assume may have changed in the last 20 years due to a combo of AGW, UHI, and simply the current on fire base states of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans! I am going through every storm where if you subtract 2C from the column h7 to the surface and exactly what that would have meant to the result in DC proper (not necessarily National airport in that lava pit they take measurements at). So storms where that would have got the surface down to a supportive temp for snow (say 33-34) and gotten the column above that below freezing. I am going to be conservative but fair. Dec 14th DC recorded 1.06 from a wave. Not all of that would have been frozen...it was a cold boundary sinking south. I got about 3" up here but the best moisture actually was suppressed SOUTH of me. Problem was even with a perfect wave track the boundary layer was scorched in the coastal plain. It was upper 30's rain. You subtract 2C from that and it ended as 2-4" of snow. Dec 16th DC recorded 1.11 QPF. Not all of that would have been snow if you subtract 2C... eventually the warm mid level would have won out...but at least 5-7" would have fallen first. A lot of that QPF happened in the initial WAA wave when the warm layer was very shallow and there was also a warm layer at the surface where it was like 33-34. That combo killed what should have been a 5-7" changing to ice event imo. January 1, .81 QPF. Again not all would have been snow, the primary tracked too far inland but if you subtract 2C that was a 1-3" snow/sleet to ice event. January 3: perfect track rainstorm. .28 QPF. Should have been 2-3" 1/25, .2 QPF but surface was around 33 and also a barely above 0 warm layer. lets say 1-2" 1/31 to 2/2 .57 QPF. The warm layer never got above 2c. So make that all snow. 5-6" 2/7, .49 and the problem was all boundary layer...subtract 2C and that was a 4-5" snow Last night the warm layer was never more then 1C and the boundary wasn't THAT WARM...that is a 3-5" snow under my alternate universe. So in this alternate universe where its 2C colder...DC is at 23-35" right now with a month of snow climo left and a pretty good pattern ahead. Looking at a top 10% snowfall winter maybe! I think my point WRT what the biggest issue is holds some validity.

Naw, last minute trends were actually south a bit with the best lift. Heavy bands kept training just south of me all night and I was stuck in the subsidence. Plus...like I pointed out a few days ago this was not the kind of event where my orographics would help. The wind flow was all wrong to get any upslope assistance. This was totally dependent on where the moisture feed set up. What is annoying is that I am only 50 miles north of DC...and this was suppressed SOUTH of me...and it still did DC no good. Think about that for a second!

It looked like a little over half an inch accumulated on my driveway from the last band that came down after I measured and cleared at 7AM so 3.5" is an accurate final total.

Fringed up here. Only had 2.8” when I cleared the driveway around 7. Probably got up over 3 with that last band after that. Never got into good rates. Just very very light snow all night. But very happy some south of me cashed in!

I wouldn’t assume later next week is a cutter either.

I totally get the frustration in DC. Thing is it’s been a failure of boundary temps not pattern. I don’t know what to say. This has been the pattern since Dec 1 and the last month! This looks like a match to every big DC snow period. And we’ve had perfect track after perfect track SWs this winter. I count about 5 storms that frankly everything went EXACTLY right for a DC snowstorm and DC got a 37 degree rain or mix event. I don’t know what to say and frankly I don’t even know what DC needs to get snow anymore. Colder is the obvious answer but if a storm takes the perfect track colder would have suppressed it. If the amount of suppression it takes to get cold enough is so much so that it squashed any wave that’s a problem. And don’t bring up Dallas. They aren’t near the coast east of mountains. Totally different climate.

At 90 6z euro has the departing TPV much stronger and slower to leave. System in the lower plains is weaker. Extrapolating another shift east. Guidance is slowly succumbing to the seasonal trend not to phase and cut storms west.

yup pattern looks awful

Baltimore is a dump. Like they deserve snow Don't be a jerk

Keep seeing reports just south of me of "dumping" but been mostly just light here with maybe borderline moderate at times.

I should operate a b&b for snow weenies

sure...looking at the current guidance its gonna be rocking

Will the barometric pressure in Pittsburgh predict the glacier flow?

You want to take the overflow for my glacier tours business next week?

It’s close NW of 95. You can see the column trying to cool but the storm isn’t quite amplified to pull it off like the NAM did.

yea 30/23 and pouring misty groupely snow here.

31/20 awaiting...

My deck is big enough to surround half my pool.

Obviously we've been too soft. Time to tell old man winter who is boss!

Both the GEFS and EPS really like the wave later next week.

Yea but the main problem with December IMO was it was December. The surface low took a perfect track but there was a ton of mid level warmth that blasted well NW. I would take my chances on a similar setup in February.

some combo of a little slower with the departing TPV to our northeast...a little less phasing of the NS/SS to our west, the trough out west to shift east slightly

Big enough to hold up about a dozen people. The wood is very firm and sturdy!

@H2O I was worried about the second wave trending south but not because of the euro. I was totally wrong about wave 1. I thought that was simply going to be a weak POS that didn't do much anywhere. I was totally focused on wave 2 which I was worried would trend south given the cold press we were seeing. It did, a little more then even I thought, enough to screw DC. The first wave amping up helped cause that by pressing the cold boundary even further south behind it. WRT the euro, I post analysis of every run, doesn't mean I agree with it. I posted the trend map because Ji was saying it wasn't that bad...I was trying to point out if you look at the trend over multiple runs it was. I do truly feel bad that this is screwing over the same places that have been getting the short end all winter. I really do. I would love to share the wealth but I have no control over it. It is a lot more fun when we are all posting deck pics!