psuhoffman

it was offset by another trend west of the TPV

probably wont mean anything but early on at 48 hours the euro has the boundary further east and pressing more...less ridging in front. The Saturday night wave was stronger and helped to suppress the flow behind it a little bit.

we had a +PNA for long stretches in December and early January and that did no good either.

For questions about Thursday...yes the more amped system Tuesday could help but frankly I don't see an amped system. Its just waves riding the boundary like I thought it would be. The problem is the boundary is 150 miles NW of where I thought it would be and discussed above why that happened. That boundary will shift east for a bit behind the Tuesday wave...but the problem Thursday is the cold is getting pretty stale by then and the TPV has moved out. It could work if the wave is weak and runs the boundary without pressing it back north. I am not ruling that out. But the setup thurday has a lot less working for it then the setup we saw for Tuesday before the TPV decided to pull back and elongate northeast v East. We had a TPV in the way, arctic air on top, high in the way...there was a lot to like. Thursday we need the wave to thread the needle. We might have a nice high in the way but it wont have as much locking it in as we thought Tuesday would. If you want to see what went wrong Tuesday go back and look at the TPV on Tuesday and what has happened to that over the last few days of runs.

There is always some variance in every season. Yes there were some brief interludes where a SE ridge of WAR showed. And of course "suppression" is less of a problem during those times. But from the means you can see that was not the dominant pattern. I am not disputing that the look coming up it becomes a bigger problem and lasts longer then previous very brief 1-2 day periods of SE ridge we had before this...and the main reason is the AO/NAO have finally broken down. There is some sign they may return but unfortunately for us our biggest problem now is that we lost the one thing that was possibly going to make this period coming up "epic". The key was to get enough blocking to suppress the boundary. But as the blocking has relaxed on guidance the boundary has shifted north. Its a pretty clear correlation. But you bring up the shred factory...that was a BIGGER problem frankly then the SE ridge which was only around for a few brief windows. The annoying thing this year has been due to a lack of cold...the amount of suppression it took to keep storms under us also shredded them. There wasn't a good baroclinic boundary to work with for most of the winter...and we finally have one now and the NAO decides its time to take a vacation.

The SST warmth is definitely a factor and I’ve said that a few times but that’s not the same as the SE ridge or WAR. Both have been muted this year. Doesn’t mean some warmth didn’t penetrate the east coast due to warm SSTs but the dominant pattern was not a SE ridge.

Tpv further south and out ahead more, initial wave less amped so the cold can press ahead. The looks I liked were when there was no wave Sunday/Monday. Now it’s looking like Monday is the wave. But the cold is still west. One issue the TPV started to take on more of a SW to NE elongation v am east to west from days ago. That allowed more ridging and less confluence in the east.

Too easy to simply attribute that to Nina though. 1. We haven’t had any SE ridge all winter...2. The Mjo is not in a typical Nina phase right now so ironically we’re getting a Nina response without Nina tropical pac forcing.

@pazzo83 6 of the last 12 years DCs biggest snowfall came in March!

The odds gradually decrease everyday but there is no sudden huge change that hits late February. The huge change happens in mid March where spring climo takes over and snow does become much more rare. From Feb 15-March 15 it’s a very gradual slope.

Significant snow ANY date is rare

We just had a snowstorm on March 21 3 years ago! We had a big snows in March 2015, 2014 and 2009 also. It’s always a struggle to get snow in the cities but it doesn’t suddenly become impossible on a set date. After about Feb 15 it does start to get harder but very gradually a little each day until late March when it does hit a wall.

Not just but the snow is a significant factor. But I have an amazing view, big property, it’s nice up here in the summer. It’s a great property to raise kids. But the snow was a part of it. I barely can tolerate the typical level of snow here...I couldn’t be happy living in DC or Baltimore. Up here I know I’m guaranteed at least some decent snow every year. But frankly I can’t wait to move somewhere that gets like 150” a year and has snow on the ground from Thanksgiving to Easter.

A 55 degree day in mid February is more normal here then a snowstorm. And again why are you fixated on the idea of “normal”. Normal in weather around here is just a bunch of abnormal averaged together.

lol I know what your doing but no reason to pile on. That’s not actually that bad. The PV is displaced and it’s also a temporary look as the pattern recycles. The next wave break in the Atlantic pumps the NAO ridge again a couple days after that.

What exactly are my options here? I have no control over this. So I can accept it and get over it and laugh about it or I can let it ruin my night and get depressed for no good reason. Let me suggest that if you NEED snow to be happy you really really really should move. And I am not judging you...I drive an hour each way to work so I can get more snow. And frankly I am still not happy a lot of the time up here and I get twice as much snow as Baltimore (frankly more like 3x more lately). So I am not saying its wrong to need snow to be happy...but I am saying you are just asking for hurt if you need snow to be happy and live in a place with a median snowfall of like 15" that goes multiple years without a significant snowstorm very frequently! Why do you want to be miserable so much of the time? Either accept it or move somewhere that gets enough snow to be happy because the climo isn't going to change...at least not for the better.

yea I know this will come off as greedy to most everyone in here but I was kinda excited for the idea of getting some snow but a lot of ice on top of my snowpack and building up a glacier that might last a while. That is pretty rare even up here. But its looking more likely I have bare ground come Monday.

We haven't had that many BIG snowstorms though...and our records only go back to the late 1800s. There are LOTS of dates that lack a HUGE snowstorm. The last week of February has had some 10" plus storms though. I do think the odds of a 20" type snowstorm in the 95 corridor start to go down once you get past the middle of February but it doesn't just STOP on a dime February 20th or something. They go down gradually each day. The fact one date has had a big storm and another did not is random chaos. This is just like when you try to play the "we are due" game or use the fact we never had more then a certain number of years without a big snowstorm to feel confident it we would get one...how has that worked out for you? Or used one bad year to think odds must be good of a better one next year...how did that work? I showed you that statistically the results one year have absolutely no effect on the odds the next year and you still brought that up again later that winter. The fact there are not usually a string of several anomalies in a row is simply the same reason that if you flip a coin you wont likely get heads 5 times in a row...but its still random chance each time. We had 7 years in a row below average once and a 10 year period with 8/10 below avg. We have also had a 10 year period with 7/10 above average. Again...you are constantly trying to find order in randomness for some reason.

looks more like upper 40's and rain! LOL. I don't know what it was... just a gut feeling...but when I saw the RGEM this afternoon my thought was "ugh well that would be a way to turn this whole progression next week into a total fail...but its just the rgem so ok". Then as soon as I saw the NAM go that way tonight I just had a sinking feeling. It's not pessimism because when we saw over amped western Phase rain solutions that didn't bother me at all. But something about this struck me as a more realistic fail scenario. I just had a sinking feeling when I saw the NAM and before all the other guidance I would have bet a LOT they would all go this way. Just felt it.

Baltimore had a 10"+ snowstorm Feb 22-23 1987. I know there was a big snowstorm the last few days of February in 1966 also. I am sure there were a lot of smaller snowstorms also...but those are some really big ones the last week of Feb. There is no reason it cannot snow the last week of February.

Feb 25 and 28 2005

I was closer to the 7 and DC the 4 both storms. I think you were about 5-6 both storms.

@Maestrobjwa btw you need to stop trying to find meaning in random chaos. Just because a certain date has been a while since it snowed is random luck. You are always trying to find trends and order in things that are totally random chaos.

This isn’t true. We’ve had snowstorms the last week of Feb. We had two 4-7” storms the last week of February in 2005.

Trend continues it might not be that cold.