psuhoffman

It has a mid level warm layer screaming in way ahead of the system. Wish I could make a good argument against that but I can’t.

The flow to our north is a little more blocked for that storm at 330. Not perfect, -NAO is east based and the 50/50 is a bit north but still there is some mechanism to suppress. This week we are relying on a dying tpv as it gets absorbed into the flow to temporarily knock down heights and create suppression. But once that feature abates there is nothing to stop it from cutting. Our only path to keeping the low to our south is of it gets suppressed enough early on to get it under us then it can lift north once to the coast. But once the influence of that tpv feature relaxes it likely will lift north pretty drastically. The trough axis is amplified pretty far west with no blocking.

Obviously this is not happening exactly this way....but it illustrates that any of those waves in the long range is a threat to get suppressed so long as we have blocking this time of year.

The dryslot part always works out. The thump though...

I haven’t missed this lately

That’s very true but it only works to a degree. First of all the gfs is awful with surface CAD so whatever warming we get from the heavier rain is likely offset by the fact the gfs is probably running a couple degrees too warm if it’s right about everything else. Also if it’s mid 20s or colder some if not most of that will freeze. It was pouring rain a few times in 1994 and accumulated ice. But the key is it was 25 not 30 degrees. Even if not all of the rain there freezes that would be a major ice event as shown Imo.

If the 50/50 is a little slower to move out, and with the NAO going negative again it could be, that could trend south.

That’s the sneaky wave I keep saying don’t sleep on.

Gefs with a not insignificant improvement for Thursday.

Op run at range. Dont care. Remember what I said yesterday about details at range. Even with the SE ridge going about as ape as I think is possible (seasonal trend says it will be less) the op gfs snows on central PA 3 times from Feb 22 on! At those ranges that’s the same as a hit. An op at those leads cannot pin down the boundary within that level of geographic detail. So long as the NAO is negative again we will have a chance for waves to get suppressed. Don’t take my word for it go back and look at the pacific in March 2018. It was PUTRID. Didn’t matter. Same in some other March cold snowy Nina’s. It’s really hard for waves to cut with a -NAO in March.

Keep an eye on that sneaky wave around the 22/23. After that don’t assume everything cuts north the end of Feb into March if the NAO does go neg again. As wavelengths shorten it gets really hard for waves to cut with a -NAO regardless of the pac pattern. It might not be a cold pattern but odds would favor some systems sliding east under the block. For places like leesburg and Winchester and up here that works even in a not truly cold pattern. Historically that has worked in the cities too. There were plenty of late season snowstorms where temps the day before were very mild in the past. But I honestly don’t know about 95 anymore. I need to see some “marginal” boundary temp setups break their way just once to believe they even still can anymore. It’s been a long time since we saw a setup like that work for DC.

It would. I see the possibility. I’m praying temps don’t surge too much during the rain Tuesday and destroy the snow pack up here. That does have some bearing on the outcome Thursday too!

We need a combo of that PV hanging around longer/stronger/further southwest plus a less amplified trough to our west. The tpv trend has been going our way. The trough ehh. That’s why we see the start of the storm trending colder but still ending up warm. If we were to see the trough less amplified and shift east some also that’s how we could get a cold storm start to finish. Keep the wave under us.

There are some positive trends. I’ve just seen and been burned so many times by this type of setup that it’s hard to get excited. But I’ll bite. Why not. I’ll join the weenie crusade.

These waves remind me a lot of the MLK weekend storm in 2019. From 7-10 days looked great because guidance had more blocking then once they realized there was no blocking the wave adjusted way north.

I’m Jedi mind tricking this storm. but seriously what do you care if I’m not on board. It’s gonna do what it’s gonna do regardless. But I have my reasons to be skeptical. 1. it’s a progressive wave with no blocking. History says those typically trend north so needed a south trend (or for the coldest model to hold with absolutely no north shift) from this range is not ideally where we want to be. 2. even on guidance that is “snowy” the track is precarious. Tonight’s euro pulled off something rare. When I see that on long range guidance I’m skeptical. That track is not typically a big snow producer here. 3. I’m not a fan of ice. It’s snow or bust. If I had any interest in ice I’d probably be more excited by this setup. This setup does have icing potential. I’m just skeptical of a significant snow. 4. the only reason I may have been on board with ice was to protect my snowpack. Snow otg is my number 1 thing. I Know you don’t care. That’s fine. But one thing I love about up here is we can keep snowcover for extended periods up here. But now that it looks like my beautiful snowpack will be wiped out by a 45 degree rainstorm Tuesday (yea I’m kinda bitter about that) it’s hard to get excited by some slop Thursday. I’m very likely to end up Friday with way less on the ground then I have now. So it’s a net negative!

I don’t think you did anything wrong but that was a little hard to watch.

It’s kinda amazing how quickly Tuesday fell apart. It’s flipping to rain all the way to Binghamton and Rutland Vermont now! It’s not even close anymore. The moment guidance flipped to stalling the TPV behind the front instead of coming across over the top I figured it would keep going this way.

Agree but my main point is I think some are using precip type and snow clown maps to judge a run. The h5 and mslp had trended significantly worse since yesterday on the euro. That’s all I care about. I don’t use those clown maps to evaluate a run. Sometimes I will use them to show a trend only if I feel they are indicative of the real trends I see behind them.

I don’t know how it got that but the mslp is UGLY. Tracks to our NW. 0z last night was the last last run of the euro I thought was hopeful. Had the SLP track up the coast. Since then it’s shifted NW. I don’t bother with clown maps unless they agree with what reality should look like imo. A slp track from Elkins to Harrisburg isn’t a snowy look here no matter what those maps show.

I’d be shocked if there isn’t at least one more tease this season. The NAO looks to go back negative and once you get late in the season with shorter wavelengths that becomes enough. Doesn’t mean we get a hit or that it’s necessarily a cold pattern but there will be chances for waves to track under us. Probably more perfect track 36 degree rainstorms and we can pretend it’s because it was just “too late”

A far cry from the 18 and rain 48 hours ago smh I’ll give you this. The NAM at 84 is a decent setup for Thursday. Compare the h5 NAM at 84 with the gfs. You can see how much more suppressive it is. Tpv further west and a flat flow across the top. It’s probably just the NAM being NAM at 84 but it’s been kicking ass and taking names even at range lately so with noting it at least.

Amazing how when we need something to suppress the flow there is never a rogue NS wave to fly across on top

I thought it was an illusion. There was a bit of a lead wave this run that activated precip along the fgen to the northeast of the main low. But that’s a detail that could be a total model figment. The actual track was way worse and the main precip shield was rain. We also got into the warm sector more. All the things that are more reliable about the big picture were worse. The bit of snow was from a fluke detail unlikely to be real. And 0z had the same amount of snow. Maybe an inch less but it was from the actual storm not a fluke lead feature. This is what I care about. Maybe I’m crazy (definitely am) but this is what I see...I don’t care about comparing identical times because there are timing differences with the speed of the wave run to run. What matters is competing the low at its critical pass. This was the low at its more critical point 0z. I superimposed the low and 850 isotherm. that was really close to a significant frozen (snow/sleet) event NW of 95. 12z This isn’t close at all. It’s a big rainstorm and it’s not close. if all you focus on is that little lead wave feature that is highly unlikely to be there next run and look at the clown maps it was ok but I’m looking at the meat of the storm.

I heard their asking for 2 draft picks and a player.