psuhoffman

For the record I said I was worried this setup argued for a mid level warm layer being a problem days ago. One thing I’m good at is picking out how we most likely fail. I don’t mind if some model throws out a bad run for some random reason. Or if they show a fail for a reason I don’t think is realistic. Seeing the model that’s been the most accurate and is the best at seeing exactly what I’m scared of show my exact fail scenario for 3 straight runs...you honestly think that shouldn’t bother me? Now...don’t make me make more of this then it is. It’s just one model. So it could very well be wrong. I said it’s a red flag. That’s it. Doesn’t mean it’s over let’s shut it down. But people will try to dismiss the NAM because it’s not showing what they want and that’s a mistake Imo.

Ugh that’s so ugly.

Did you not pay any attention to what the Eps pulled last week in VA??? Your other points are valid. I’m not out on this. But the euro has been pretty bad lately.

Yea hopefully some red tags will come say how Im crazy to be worried about the NAM at 72. But the NAM is really good at picking up on these warm layers. But it is still outside optimal range. It can be wrong. I’m not throwing any towel. But I keep wanting to see some sign the NAM is going to cave and it’s locked in with that 700mb warmth.

3k NAM looks better. Still a bit NW of the globals at 60 but not nearly as bad as the 12k.

Let’s lay out all the objective evidence. The globals are all trending better. No denying that. And it’s still early to be sold on the high resolution models. But given that SW flow a high mid level warm layer does make sense. And the NAM can see something like that better then globals. People laugh at the nam at range but I can think of numerous examples where the NAM saw a mid level warm layer the globals didn’t from 72 hours out. I do think it’s a red flag.

I objectively analyzing the data. My desires don’t influence my analysis. Crazy how no one minded my analysis of the positive trends on all the globals. It’s not my fault the NAM looks like hot poop.

Around 700mb. It’s pretty high up which jives with the jet presentation. Warmest level could even be above 700mb. That’s why such a large sleet area.

Problem is the NAM has the ability to see the mid level warm layers the globals don’t. The other problem is with the screaming SW jet it kinda makes sense! It’s why I was hesitant to get excited about this setup. So yea maybe it’s wrong but it’s worrying Imo. ETA: would still be a high impact ice event. I have absolutely 0 interest in that though.

NAM is a disaster still. And it’s still trending worse with the 700 mb warm layer. It’s amazing how far apart the high res models are from the globals. It’s not just the NAM btw. I know it’s way early but I took a peek at the HRWs and they are all exactly like the NAM. Directing the initial wave up into NW PA nowhere near us with any snow. The high res are laughing at the globals saying we won’t even be within 100 miles of an inch of snow.

It’s early but I can already tell the NAM is going to be way NW of all the globals. Way more amped up and it’s directing the lead wave of energy to our NW

You all can pretend it doesn’t matter but it Sure would be nice to get the NAM on board here soon!

I think the 8th Amendment guarantees it has too. This isn’t like when things looked good at long range and started slowly degrading as we got closer. This time (with these trends inside 72 hours across ALL major guidance) a rug pull would be cruel and unusual punishment! EPS GEFS GEPS

This ones just for fun

See I’ll post a positive one of those too. I’m not actually a deb it’s not my fault those trends have all been bad this year until now.

@leesburg 04

Yes. The pac is finally hot garbage after this week. Luckily it waited until the part of winter when the pac matters the least. Still if it’s going to be that awful we will need the NAO to offset.

Welcome! West based is better. East based can work but it’s less a sure thing. It’s also not static. It will shift around.

A -pna -NAO is actually a really good pattern in March. A lot of our March snows featured that look.

Let me know when to start worrying about suppression. Lol

I said WTH I’ll buy in. Why not. Aren’t we due something to break our way? There is a lot flawed with this setup but one thing we do have is legit cold ahead of it. A lot of the fails recently can be attributed to the lack of that ingredient.

It’s snow or sleet. There is a 6 hour period with extremely heavy precip from DC to the PA line and it keeps flipping back and forth and has areas of snow south of areas of sleet. Indicative of a small warm layer that might be overcome by rates. But that 6 hour period is the difference between a minor v major event wrt snow accumulations. It would be high impact either way with ice.

Cmc has some very heavy banding aimed right at DC then too. It’s very questionable if it’s snow/sleet. Flips back and forth for a few hours in the precip type plots. Nothing else updated yet.

Cmc looks to have a decent thump snow to ice event from the precip plots that updated.

Sold let’s go with that.