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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
  2. psuhoffman
    These 18z runs continued that trend...that wasn't the issue...the problem was around hour 36 they go berserk with the primary to our west and amp the system like crazy. A little better high and damming won't offset that. That's like throwing a couple poker chips on one side of the scale and then dropping a piano on the other.
  3. psuhoffman
    wow what did it show 12z for this area then because it cut our snow in half on the publicly available maps lol
  4. psuhoffman
    problem is that's it...the warm layer has blasted all the way into PA by then...so pretty much we all end up with 6-7" which is fine for DC but for places NW of 95 it took away 6" of snow from the last run that had 10-12" in places
  5. psuhoffman
    NAMs don't bother me, the jump around run to run like crazy...but what do you know about the RRFS because it looked great at 12z and just want WAY WAY north... I don't know enough about it to know whether that should bother us or not
  6. psuhoffman
    Hopefully the RRFS sucks
  7. psuhoffman
    Both NAM's were colder and better out to 36 hours then went off the rails...once they got into less reliable ranges.
  8. psuhoffman
    High was a little further south with better damming signal into the mid atlantic this run. Minor but we only need minor improvements here
  9. psuhoffman
    includes sleet
  10. psuhoffman
    Finishes looking at the HRRR
  11. psuhoffman
    This is what I am thinking
  12. psuhoffman
    I definitely understand taking a step back. And I hope the health thing has been resolved! The kids are doing good, getting too big too fast. Hope all is well... maybe I'll do another BBQ this summer...it's been too long!
  13. psuhoffman
    You came to the right place... you will find everyone in here is very sympathetic to the plight of Boston
  14. psuhoffman
    I think the euro improvement, when taken along with all the rest of the 12z guidance...was more than just noise. Keep in mind we are not going to see some massive jump every 6 hours from here on it, not on the euro anyways...not this close in. But the changes I see on the euro are consistent with the changes I saw across the rest of the 12z guidance, so I think even though its an incremental change...its safe to say it's not just noise.
  15. psuhoffman
    They get higher ratios, they will be fine.
  16. psuhoffman
    Where you been friend?
  17. psuhoffman
    Euro was kind of the model the most "in the middle" so it makes sense it would change the least as we get convergence among the others...
  18. psuhoffman
    With the euro to go (and obviously that could change things quite a bit) this run has been the first time I saw legit improvement across the guidance and not just grasping at noise level changes. Until now I felt each run was a very slow bleed in the wrong direction but 12z was an actual improvement across everything so far imo.
  19. psuhoffman
    It has trended warmer...and some of the warmer guidance like the GGEM has trended colder...they are meeting in the middle...for us right on the line where exactly that middle is means a lot
  20. psuhoffman
    @caviman2201 thanks for the UK map...any way you could post the one through the end of the storm...I think north of 70 gets more snow after 18z based on the thermal and precip maps. Thanks
  21. psuhoffman
    Thanks...any way you would show through the rest of the storm for those of us further north...I think we get a little more snow after 18z north of 70 But that looks like a slight improvement from 6z, in line with most of the other 12z guidance
  22. psuhoffman
    Interesting but the US high res models aren't showing colder/snowier solutions than the GGEM/UK/Euro so...not sure what the point is from a functional POV
  23. psuhoffman
    After seeing the entire 12z suite I think the issue with the NAM is simply it's weak sauce south of the PA line with the WAA precip. Had the nam looked like EVERYTHING ELSE wrt that it would have been colder.
  24. psuhoffman
    I don't have access to the Kuchera maps...the UK 10-1 maps are always inflated because they include ice as snow, which in setups like this...makes them look better than they are.
  25. psuhoffman
    There isn't really a defined, closed circulation low there, it's a trough axis with elongated low pressure along it...slight changes of where exactly the "lowest" pressure point is along the trough axis at any given moment can change where that map decides to place the "L" which makes the change look more significant that it was.
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