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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
    24 hours ago we were debating if ice would make it to the PA line...now it's closer to the NY line
  2. psuhoffman
  3. psuhoffman
    Ggem
  4. psuhoffman
    Rgem
  5. psuhoffman
    If you adjust the snow/ice line 20-30 miles NW to account for its inability to see mid level warm layers it’s not that far from the ggem and EC anymore
  6. psuhoffman
    Down to 13 here
  7. psuhoffman
    I went 6-10 along 95
  8. psuhoffman
    MD is kind of dry slotted after the snow thump on the NAM so only 1-2” of sleet but a ton down in VA
  9. psuhoffman
  10. psuhoffman
    It’s fine. 10” in DC. 12” IAD. 13” up here.
  11. psuhoffman
    Trick, the FV3 is almost always similar to the gfs inside 48 hours. Similar to the rgem/ggem. So if you want to know about what the gfs is going to look like just look at the FV3 now.
  12. psuhoffman
    It’s because the warm layer is at its greatest extent there and thin and it’s wobbling based on rates. Around 20z we’re in a dry slot then it sinks south during some heavier precip
  13. psuhoffman
    @wxmeddler I think bc you let us know about the Dr U convo you were gonna be low. I sorta expected that too, unfairly.
  14. psuhoffman
    Looks like the gfs only the CAM version
  15. psuhoffman
    Not saying it’s right but the range thing isn’t why because it does things that lead to this result in just 24 hours. Now the it sucks issue might be why.
  16. psuhoffman
    I actually like the 18z rgem slightly better than 12z. WTF I’m out. I need to find something less stressful and more reliable. Oh I know I’ll start rooting for the local sports teams!
  17. psuhoffman
    Ok rgem calms my soul some
  18. psuhoffman
    I had hoped 12z meant we finally stopped the bleeding. But what’s come out so far 18z resumed what had been the trend prior to 12z and in most cases lost all progress from 12z and ended worse than their 6z runs! hopefully rgem/gfs/euro come in bucking this trend but so far a major amp trend with the primary across 18z
  19. psuhoffman
  20. psuhoffman
    These 18z runs continued that trend...that wasn't the issue...the problem was around hour 36 they go berserk with the primary to our west and amp the system like crazy. A little better high and damming won't offset that. That's like throwing a couple poker chips on one side of the scale and then dropping a piano on the other.
  21. psuhoffman
    wow what did it show 12z for this area then because it cut our snow in half on the publicly available maps lol
  22. psuhoffman
    problem is that's it...the warm layer has blasted all the way into PA by then...so pretty much we all end up with 6-7" which is fine for DC but for places NW of 95 it took away 6" of snow from the last run that had 10-12" in places
  23. psuhoffman
    NAMs don't bother me, the jump around run to run like crazy...but what do you know about the RRFS because it looked great at 12z and just want WAY WAY north... I don't know enough about it to know whether that should bother us or not
  24. psuhoffman
    Hopefully the RRFS sucks
  25. psuhoffman
    Both NAM's were colder and better out to 36 hours then went off the rails...once they got into less reliable ranges.
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