psuhoffman

There is nothing more I need to see from the globals. They are all close to showing max potential inside 72 hours. At this point I just want to see the NAM cave. Totally fully and completely cave and spit out some NAMd worthy 15” solution. Yea it’s (and it’s idiotic SREF friends) probably wrong but I want that option off the table because probably isn’t definitely and snow is serious business

Gefs 24 hour trend

It was only like 2 people canceling winter after this week and one was Ji who should count as -1.

Yea I didn’t want to throw that part in because I know there are parts of this sub that haven’t had much snow. But I’ve had plenty of ho hum minor snowfalls lately. I want something dynamic.

This. This will very likely trend north the last 48 hours. We want to get it as far south as we can now. I wouldn’t mind one more south jump tonight before the likely bleed north on guidance starts once the wave tonight gets out of the way.

First part is 100%. Second not. I don’t want anyone to feel any sort of way. That’s nun my business. But I do feel the way I do. I’m a big game Hunter. Everyone knows that. I do like snow. I’ll take 2” if that’s all I can get. But I don’t really track for that. And frankly when it’s late in a season like this I become even more so. I’ll root hard for a 2-4” snow around Xmas for example. By mid Feb I’m fully in go big or go home mode. I’m not hunting squirrels. I’m hunting 12 foot grizzly bears and 200 point white elk with antlers that won’t fit through my door! That’s just me. Glad someone got my snark. Of course I don’t expect the big solutions. But every major global is spitting out 6”+ so obviously it’s an option so that’s what I’m rooting for. Dunno why we shouldn’t! It’s like with the Eagles. For most of my 42 years I’ve fully expected them to disappoint me. But I’m still there with my brother and cousin screaming expletives that would make a sailor blush when they F up. Just because I expected the fail doesn’t mean I wasn’t rooting to be pleasantly surprised! Snow is the same. And I don’t need every storm to hit. I know we don’t get that many big events. I’m ok with that. I’m ok when they fail. You don’t see me throwing fits during or after a fail. But when we’re tracking hell yea I want to see guidance trend towards 20”/hr rates with flakes the size of cars that will crush you if they land on you. I’m not a settle kind of guy. But no issue with others who have different opinions on snow.

Notice we are saying the exact same things but due to stylistic differences how we express it changes how it’s perceived. Lol And people can say they are good with a compromise (and yea if it ends up going that way fine and I’ll take what we get. No choice anyways. But come on everyone is rooting for the 6”+ thump snow. We might accept less but we want to see everything trend to the globals not compromise with the BS the NAM is spitting out. Screw the NAM. Globals hold the line damnit. Don’t give an inch. Force the NAM into unconditional unmitigated surrender.

The rgem is acceptable. But it was a baby step towards the NAM. That’s not something I want to see. Frankly I don’t want signs they will “compromise”. A compromise is a minor snow to ice event. No thanks. I signed up for the euro/para/uk 6-12” of snow package. I’m not settling for some pathetic run of the mill 2-4” to mix event.

Careful apparently letting the NAM spook you wrt mid level warmth qualifies as “going off the rails” to some ( @leesburg 04 ) around here. I agree is probably just an outlier. It’s not stringing out the energy like the globals and that allows the primary to amplify and push everything to our NW. Its so different from everything else (except the SREF which like that idea too). If I HAD to bet I would favor the globals but I don’t feel great with the NAM showing that. Given all the recent let downs I’d like to have it on board before letting myself get overly optimistic about the big snow totals being indicated by everything else.

NAM wants to be stubborn. Yes it took a baby step early but it’s not even close. It’s off by over 100 miles on where it places that band of snow.

EPS trend

Yup. People can say what they want but everyone should feel better if the NAM gets on board.

More like 3 years.

The upper level energy is actually washing out as the system runs into the cold. It’s all WAA and fgen forcing driven. There isn’t much in the way of classic coastal.

Arctic air fail fail

They are used to getting the short end

Nope not my concern with this one.

North south east or west is my call. You know how this game works!

It is positive to see the globals still trending better. One last point on the NAM. The reason it goes berserk with the h7 warm layer is actually something it’s doing synoptically that makes it a huge outlier. @CAPE made a great post early this morning about how the trough is strung out and the guidance focusing more on the lead wave is helping to keep the system under us. The NAM is the holy guidance not doing that. It has a more amplified but also consolidated trough and this allows it to amplify to our west. If that’s wrong the h7 warm layer will be overdone. I have no idea if it’s wrong. Preponderance of evidence would say it’s overdoing it. I’m going to go with that. But I sure will feel more comfortable when it drops that idea and gets on board with other guidance. That is all.

Fair enough. From my perspective what’s annoying is some seem to focus in on the negative I say. In the last 24 hours I bet I’ve made 10x more positive posts. And sometimes even within a post I’ll make a positive and a negative point. I’m analyzing all the possible permutations. But then the negative thing I said gets all the attention and it comes off like I cancelled storm when that wasn’t my intent. I intended to point out the NAM was bad and it COULD be right and explained why. But obviously I suck at communicating that because it turned into “I went off the rails and cancelled the storm”. It doesn’t matter what my intent is if that’s what people take from my posts. One thing I think that’s at play sometimes is some seem to want certainty and a narrative. I view this as chaos and I’m ok with that. I am open to all the variables and outcomes. I don’t need to pretend to know exactly how it’s going to go. I don’t know. No one does. So people try to read certainty from my embrace of the uncertainty. The NAM is possible. So is the crazy 10” para gfs. I can see reasons for both. I could see the NAM being a little too aggressive with the warm layer and the heavy rates mixing it out. I can also see an argument for the NAM given this setup and history with this kind of SW flow. I’m open to both possibilities. But I think some want to be told how the bad one isn’t likely and placate their fears and so my embrace of both comes off as an embrace of the fail only.

Yea I pointed out in my NAM post how crazy divergent it is. It’s WAY off with the initial wave.

This is personal perspective. I don’t disagree with what you said. But there is another POV. The globals all do show a 4-8” snow before the flip to ice from DC north. And yes some in here are believing that. The NAM shoes NO snow. That’s a pretty big difference. My point was if we want the big thump snow scenario to be right the NAM is problematic. Ive not said the NAM is definitely right. But it’s good at seeing high level warm air intrusion. And that’s been my worry all along why this would be more a ice then snow event. But I said it could be wrong too and admitted it’s still early to take us as gospel but like I told Leesburg I think when I explain why the worst model could very well be right it annoys people whose first defense mechanism instinct is to dismiss and find ways to toss any model that threatens their dream. Now about personal preference if someone has accepted this is just a mixy ice event with very little snow of significance then there is no problem. But I have absolutely no interest in a sleet bomb. None. Zero zip. Sleet and freezing rain do absolutely NOTHING for me. Actually I hate them worse then rain because they make me angry it’s not snowing. Maybe that fact explains my stance here! Just being honest about my admittedly crazy feelings. So for me the difference between the globals and the NAM is HUGE. The globals (with their 4-8” snow) is an event worth tracking. The NAM to me is a total fail since I only care about snow.

Saying what the NAM shows then explaining that is NOT what I wanted to see and why is not going off the rails. It’s analysis. But it flies in the face of the “hug the model with the most snow and dismiss anything that takes a dump on my dream” attitude some have. I’ve said 3 times I’m not sold that NAM is right. It’s still at range. But everyone ignores that part and focuses on the part where I kill their desire to just disregard it by pointing out why it COULD be right. It could. Not will. Could. It’s a red flag. That is all. But red flags are troubling given our propensity to fail in almost any situation lately!

Rgem still looks good. 3-6” before flip to sleet.