psuhoffman

@CAPE

What on gods green Earth are you smoking.

It’s on pivotal

There is some. They lose 850s for 6 hours on the high res maps. It’s super close but since there is likely a small warmer layer somewhere other then exactly 850 we can assume it’s not snow. And that period is a decent chunk of precip. That said the kuchera maps seem overly conservative. I think because this storm has fairly high thicknesses and I think kuchera factors that in its being overly pessimistic. Ratios won’t be high but not as low as it’s going where it has like 8-1 with all levels sub zero and cold ground. That’s too low imo. It wasn’t a horrible run but it was worse then 12z and the runt of 18z. It didn’t trend north though. Just dryer. Cut down on snow up in PA also!

Those SV maps count ice as 10-1 snow

Nice improvement on gefs 18z was a much colder run.

Yea in that case it’s harder to pin the exact mix line but if there is a meso banding feature along the front like much guidance hints at my guess is the mix is just south of it.

This seems relevant

The NAMs both took another major step towards the globals.

Where that banding among the boundary sets up likely is mostly snow. In my experience the dynamics and the ability of heavy rates to mix our a small warm layer typically wins in that band. Plus the mid level warm layer typically is where you get the dry slot. So no matter what the guidance says that band is often where the snow/sleet line sets up just south of it.

Over under how many more times you ask

Yup. I never thought the pattern didn’t look good long range. I just think people were depressed when this week looked bad and we’re transferring that into the long range. A -NAO pattern in late winter will yield opportunities regardless of the pac.

That post wasn’t directed at you specifically. But I do very much want everyone to get snow. But I also don’t want to get left out. Those two things can both be true. When I worry about “fringed” sometimes it’s a joke. Sometimes it’s legit and it does happen. I got fringed last week. But I don’t pretend that is about anything other then my yard. I do try to make posts from a region wide focus also though. I make some posts directed at the northern crew that’s more imby focused. And I make some that are DC centric. At least I try too. My warm layer concerns for example were more for DC then me even. Although I do think that’s the bigger fail threat up here also. But it’s especially problematic for DC. And I want them to get annihilated for a change! And yes I want to get snow up here also. Why does it have to be one or the other? Cant I root for my yard AND everyone else’s also?

@Bob Chill eps 24 hour trend

I do wonder what the results this year would have been say 30 years ago in DC. It’s a Nina with a generally mediocre pac base state irrespective of enso so expecting a 1996 or 2010 type result from the blocking would be ambitious in the least. But up here for example, the results have at least been more in line with what you would expect from a great blocking winter with mediocre “other” factors. I’m very likely to end to above climo snowfall (only 5” away with a LOT of winter to go up here). Unless we get a 1958 type finish it won’t rival the top 10% type winters but it’s likely to end up in that very good category just below that. Obviously I do better then DC but I’m talking wrt climo. Historically when I finish above climo so does DC. I’ve noticed more of a decoupling of that in recent years though where not only do I do better in raw numbers but I also am doing much better wrt climo some years. I wonder how much of that is the elephant in the room.

We were too busy commiserating the failure of the snow pattern to notice the brief cold snap.

@Bob Chill clown comp

@Bob Chill biggest change was shifted well south with the second wave Thursday evening. Now snow all the way to just NW of 95.

It lives!!! Dews are crashing so the worst of the melting is over.

@Ji I’m just celebrating the survival of my pack. Temp is still around 40 but the dews are crashing now and so the melting is about done and it survived. I want a month straight of cover which is very possible if this next storm doesn’t disappoint.

@Bob Chill i try to do some of the pertinent panels. Sorry to use the precip type plots but I dont have time to parse every panel right now. Morning thump colder and thumpier

For the record the reason I almost always Jack is that I specifically picked my exact location based on that! Not the region. This area is half way between my wife’s family and my work and there are other reasons we picked this general region. But the exact spot of my house is due to a combo of the view and being literally the snowfall maximum for MD east of the blue ridge. I’m on top of a mountain near the highest point of Parrs ridge. That’s why it almost always works out. Has nothing to do with me willing it. I moved to where it snows instead of trying to will the snow to me.

If I’m the furthest north spot in this forum and I’m worried about a warm layer...that’s pretty pertinent to everyone else in here unless I’m confused about geography.

That was supposed to be funny. Ugh. Of course I want as much snow as I can get in my yard. Who here doesn’t? But since I have no control over it I don’t feel selfish about that. Honestly if I did have control I would draw up ridiculous storms with 300 mile wide Jack zones that give everyone in here 20”. Or of I had to give up a storm once in a while in order for others to get snow I would. Yes I want snow but I also want others to get snow too! If I had a preference from 12z I would like the Para. Gets DC area with the initial thump in the morning then we attrition our way to good snow up here from a combo of multiple waves. It’s a win for everyone.

My post was to the NW crew. But my joke post aside I’m NOT worried about south with this one. I don’t see enough of a suppressive flow to crush this. Maybe we don’t Jack but whatever...our bigger risk even up here is a mid level warm layer sneaking north imo. ETA: the initial wave likely does focus the heaviest just south of us...but we would get good snow later in the day assuming the warm layer doesn’t blast north too fast.