psuhoffman

Sorry man. You ok? I’ve had to cut out my daily walks the last couple days. Too much ice.

It really does. Not just in summer. I know the area you’re talking about. And compared to DC or Baltimore they are cooler in summer and more snow in winter...but I’m not kidding when I say the difference from there to here is almost as great a jump. I lived on a ridge at 860 feet just south of Westminster for 2 years before moving up here and the difference is astounding. I drive around the county a lot and the snowcover difference in winter and the temp in summer over just a few miles is crazy. this area is a micro climate within the greater Parrs ridge climate. Even the valleys between those 3 ridges do better. They are generally high valleys though with a floor around 850 and the ridges run 1000-1100 feet. But man if you get on the northwest facing slope of those 3 ridges it really does feel like you just entered a new climate zone. The NW wind is crazy with total exposure. It’s too much sometimes in storms. It’s very common for me to have 6”+ of snowcover and Westminster has none or for me to be 5 degrees cooler then even Westminster. I probably wouldn’t believe it if I wasn’t living it.

We usually get a nice breeze up on this ridge. Even just the mile into town it feels a lot hotter in summer. It’s not like New England cool but I can usually count the days that feel oppressive to be out in my yard on one hand where as in Baltimore it’s June to August 90% of the time.

Exactly. That’s another nice thing being on this ridge. We might get a week or two that’s too hot but it’s not the whole summer. Usually when it’s 92 in Baltimore it’s 84 with a cool breeze up here.

lol I get that but for me even up there they get plenty of warm weather from May to September. Might even make me appreciate it more.

Depends. If you have no ties or reasons to stay in the area then yea why move for a measly 10-20” more. On the other hand if you have a reason (family/job) that you can’t really just relocate as someone who lived near Philly then northern VA and now live here but commute to Baltimore and see the difference everyday...I can attest there is a significant difference. Along 95 you can go years without it feeling like winter at all. Where the only snow you get isn’t enough to cover the grass or melts almost immediately after. In 15 years up here that has never happened. I’ve verified a warning event every year. I get at least a week of cold and real legit snowcover every winter. Even last year, about as bad as it gets, I had a couple minor snows in December to make it feel like Xmas and then 8.5” over 2 storms and a week that felt like real winter in January. For the last 3 weeks my view looks like this... I think there are a lot of people who are rational and just want some damn REAL snow at least once or twice a winter and would be totally content with the climo here. And the commute is manageable if you don’t mind driving (I don’t). On the other hand if you are the type that wants snow all the time and the minute one storm is over wants the next bearing down this won’t make you happy. I’m somewhere in between. I’m mostly “content” but even this year it’s kinda a little annoying that all 3 of the big storms underperformed and trended worse from 48 hours. I know that’s crazy and most who got barely any snow can’t relate to feeling “meh” over 10” and it is stupid but had just one of them met expectations and been a flush hit 20” storm like they looked like from 2-3 days out up here I would be over the moon about this winter. Instead I feel content and good but not great because it sticks that every event was trending the wrong way and lowering expectations. It’s about excitement. I’d feel better about 8” from a storm that was only supposed to drop 2-4 then 12” from a storm that was supposed to drop 20”. Yea I’m crazy but it’s about the excitement level. lastly I wonder how much snow is too much. I don’t want to lose the thrill. Somewhere that gets 300”...would that become too normal? Plus most of those places the snow is upslope. It’s not synoptic. You can’t really track those unless you’re into tracking wind flow. I’ve forecasted for ski areas recreationally. It’s not the same. Nothing is like a coastal storm! That’s why I think somewhere in New England might be perfect. Their frequency of big nor’easters is higher and they get more snow, but it’s not so much that you get bored with it and they get legit storms you can track. But I dunno would get there and still be pissed when they get a bad year and I don’t have snow all the time because my expectations change based on location.

I just want the 4.5 I need to break 50...

14-Dec 3.1 16-Dec 10.5 26-Jan 0.5 Jan 31 to Feb 2 12.2 5-Feb 0.9 7-Feb 7 11-Feb 3.5 18-Feb 7.8 45.5

Gfs=Shortwave shredder given the seasonal trend...that is very likely how this ends. All our storms that took a favorable track (and yea they did it just ended up too warm anyways) started out as cutters at this range and trended south to the point they tracked under us...then ended up too warm anyways but still... Past results do NOT guarantee anything and trends can change anytime...but seasonal trend would argue this gets shredded and suppressed if its already showing as such at this range.

I will discuss and debate climo with you or anyone but I am not going to defend straw man positions. You made a bunch of claims that don't refute or directly relate to the claims I made. I never compared Philly to DCA or BWI. I never used 10 years as a measurement. So lets define again what I did say. 1. I said there is no drastic sudden snow climo change between DC and Philly...that it is gradual and Baltimore does marginally better then DC and Philly does marginally better then Baltimore and the drastic climo change happens NORTH of philly...and if you look at a snowfall avg map that is 100% true. 2. I compared Philly to where I used to live near IAD. 3. I said "recently" then used 3 years as my example clearly implying my meaning of "recently" was about 3 years. You then arbitrarily decided to take my words but use 10 years instead. Now some issues with your comparisons...BWI gets less snow then Baltimore. DCA gets less snow then DC. And I didn't even say Philly was comparable to those places. Again I said Philly is marginally better then Baltimore (true if you look at averages which are NOT based on 10 years by the way). I did compare Philly to where I lived near IAD. IAD historically averages a little bit more then Philly. In the last 10 years Philly has had 24.1" and IAD 20.2 and that is a little out of line with longer term averages. But you need to add some perspective to that. First averages are not based on 10 years. There is a very good reason for that which brings us to the next issue. The entire discrepancy from "normal" in the last 10 years was due to 2 extremely anomalous seasons, 2011 and 2018. In both years Philly got 3x more then the DC/Balt area. That is VERY rare historically. Most years if you compare IAD and Philly they are close to each other with almost an even chance of one or the other having more...but not that much more. There are very few cases of that. There are a few...with both IAD or Philly getting significantly more...but its rare. So when you get 2 really abnormal seasons that are very unlikely to repeat often within one 10 year period it is going to skew the results a LOT. That is why you can't calculate an average from 10 years. It's not long enough a period to smooth out abnormal seasons like those 2. So basically getting the 2 most anomalous snowfall seasons you will likely EVER see in terms of Philly overperforming and DC underperforming in a short span will skew the decade. Odds are over 30 years or longer that will even out some. But in the other 8 seasons Dulles averaged 2" more then Philly which is closer to the long term averages and climo. Also, I have stated on here many times that I believe AGW is hurting places further south on the coastal plan MORE then further north so far. That will likely continue to creep north over time. But for now it is likely the snowfall avg of DC is going down faster then Balitmore...and Baltimore is going down faster then Philly. I have also said places JUST far enough north have seen their snowfall actually increase slightly due to a greater frequency of big storms. So its possible Philly is just far enough north that their snowfall may have even gone up some lately if they are just on the winning side of that equation while DC is on the losing side. So the differences between the two may be growing slightly. But probably not as much as the last 10 years would indicate based on those 2 outlier years though. Still...Baltimore has had MORE snow then Philly in 4 of the last 6 seasons! So the perception that Philly is KILLING this area in snowfall is still not in line with reality. Philly has KILLED this area in 2 seasons out of the last 10...and the other 8 this area has been pretty much equal. Lastly you over minimize the normalcy of this area beating Philly in a storm. IAD (which is where i compared) got significantly more then Philly way more often then you admitted. 3 times in 2010. Jan 30th, Feb 3, Feb 6. 3 storms in March 2014 2 storms in 2015, one in Feb and one in March The HECS in 2016 The storm in January 2019 and another storm in Feb 2019 Yes...Philly often gets several inches more snow from a storm then northern VA. And northern VA often gets several inches more then Philly. But for some reason whenever we get more no one cares or notices. But when Philly gets several inches more snow...it gets exaggerated and people act like its some kind of abomination. I don't get it. Those 2 seasons (2011 and 2018) were really weird and this area got screwed pretty bad in both by multiple storms, places south of here even did better those years...and I get the frustration with that those 2 years...but it wasn't just PHilly that did better...EVERYONE did better then DC area those years...they were both weird years where the DC area was the screw zone for the whole region. And they were historic screw zones too where most everyone around had well above normal snowfall and this local little bubble somehow got missed by every storm and ended up below normal. And its happening again this year....and that is incredibly frustrating...but again its weird that Philly is the focus so often. Places south of DC are doing much better WRT climo this year also...but no one brings that up...its Philly for some reason.

No moved to VA just before I started freshman year. Would have gone to Washington twsp.

It’s a long shot but what makes it even possible is that there is a wave forming on the front. It’s not a closed circulation low or anything but the wave passing south among the front does 2 things, disrupts the straight shot of southerly flow some and focuses lift to its northeast which can hold off WAA some also and mix cold down. It’s not a straight up front with a low way NW. but this setup still favors north of the urban areas. I’ve seen this setup work out NW of the cities before for a quick thump snow but I can’t really remember one that worked for 95. Well I can think of one, Feb 2015, but we had sub 0 temps 24 hours before that one so it’s not a great comp.

My lines don’t go due east they go ENE because that’s what the averages do. I could have drawn that from memory but I looked them up just to confirm. They do hook north on the immediate coast east of the parkway but that’s a local meso coastal front thing and hard to capture on a map of that scale. But yes some location right on the beach or within a mile of the ocean in northeast NJ might only average slightly more then a spot in northern Delaware but that’s a very local thing and not a fair comp. go just a few miles inland and the snow climate of northeast/east central NJ is far superior to Wilmington DE. This is from Isotherms light in the storm website which has excellent climo data on NJ. Look at the 21” gradient. It runs right through center city Philly then look how it runs ENE until it gets to the immediate coast. Look at the 27” gradient! It runs south if due east across NJ until the immediate coast! I didn’t make that up. Averages aren’t up for debate. They are mathematically calculated and produce a definitive numerical value. They are what they are lol. Perhaps your perception is skewed because in the mid Atlantic south of Philly due to elevation being a larger factor then latitude and the effect of the Chesapeake bay, the snow gradient does run more SW to NE. But once north of Philly those lines turn more east quick. Part of that is reaching a latitude where snow is more easily supported on the coastal plain. Part is that a ENE wind suddenly isn’t coming off the Gulf Stream anymore. Trust me I grew up just south of that gradient. I can remember so many storms where I got 1-3” just east of Philly and 30 miles north of me in NJ got 6-10”. What you saw yesterday isn’t unusual.

My fault. I thought we were in banter because I replied last time here. Didn’t realize I was responding to another reply in the main thread. @RevWarReenactor just respond in here if you want to discuss climo stuff.

Look at the map edited. I didn’t pull those lines out my arse. I traced the actual averages based on reporting stations. I’m not sure how you argue what the averages actually are?

It's a little of both...as one of my favorite soccer podcasters used to say...two things can be true.

So have W and N of DC...look at Winchester and my area! It's just the snowfall climo changes more radically over a slightly shorter distance in and around Philly...you have to go a bit further NW of DC and Baltimore to get the same effect but its there...I have had 45" and there is a HUGE cutoff just to my southeast...same as through the Philly area. But I am doing better then Philly and on par with the NW philly burbs...as is climo.

@RevWarReenactor I drew the approximate location of the 20", 25", and 30" snowfall averages on your map to show where the real snow climo zones are.

But the perception inst really accurate. Philly got 3.3" yesterday. NW of downtown Philly got a LOT more...just like NW parts of our regions got a lot more. I will say this...places a lot closer to Philly proper do a LOT better then the immediate suburbs here to. Part of that is latitude advantage and part is geography. Like I said once you get NW of the fall line it changes...but again places not far NW of Philly average a LOT more snow then DC or Balitmore so again those places are not a fair comp. South Philly is...but they aren't doing as much better as people think. They didn't even get that much in the HECS storm 3 weeks ago. They got a couple inches more then Baltimore! And there have been plenty of storms in the last 10 years where Baltimore or DC did better then Philly but we seem to forget those! We don't "complain" when we win lol. Downtown Philly and south Philly has not been doing that much better then Baltimore in general. The northern and western burbs of philly have, but those places average a LOT more snow...the snow climo changes a lot more radically over a short distance in that area then our area so taking snow results from a NW burb of philly and comparing it to Baltimore is not a good comp.

But that isn’t all one climo zone. The southern end of your tail averages about 15” and parts of the northeast end about 27! The climate zones run war more ENE then you have them NE there. The exception is along the fall line and then the ridges where elevation changes cause a NE snow climo change. But once you get to the coastal plain the snow averages run more West to east!

There are 3 waves in close proximity from Thursday to Monday next week. They will all influence each other. I have no confidence in any solution but there is a decent chance one clips us. It wouldn’t shock me if it ends up the 3rd one that right now looks like an amped up cutter given seasonal trends.

And until they come in range? Btw don’t forget they had a cutter for yesterday from 84 hours. They saw the warm layer but they were awful on the rest of the synoptic setup.

Didn’t know. Sorry

Which ones do we want in our corner again?