psuhoffman

Micro v macro. Your zooming in on a specific synoptic setup which wasn’t even in range when I made that observation. On the longwave pattern level there are some similarities with an elongated TPV from Siberia down into SE Canada as the driving mechanism to get cold here and suppress the storm track. The 18z op gfs adds a wrinkle with a -NAO also but thats not across the majority of guidance...yet?

52

March is typically too volatile to get a threat to lock in at super long leads. If something does come up it likely won’t show itself clearly until inside 5/6 days and even that might be pushing it.

Im 100% content if it’s over. Just rolling with whatever.

He’s exaggerating. You’ll get at least 2

Lol what lol. This is a winter default map for 2 weeks Yes WINTER default and every other post here has been repeating “spring” and “it’s over”

Lol

Can yoga do play by play for member p02

Some people are being silly. A few observations. Guidance is all displacing a now strengthening tpv lobe into Quebec the second half of March. This leads to a trough amplification into the east. This is a very different mechanism for cold then earlier this winter and right now. It’s more similar to the cold periods we saw in March 2014 and 2015. That doesn’t mean it will snow. It’s very late. Even in a good pattern we need luck. If I had to bet I would bet no. But that doesn’t mean it’s impossible. It can snow in late March. Everyone in here knows that. And everyone also knows just because they had bad luck in January and February doesn’t guarantee bad luck in March. So people need to stop it with the fatalistic projection or reverse psychology stuff. Just because you’re disgusted about this winters results and personally done with winter doesn’t mean it can’t snow. The weather don’t care. Do I think it’s going to snow? Probably not. But it could, the pattern looks somewhat favorable, so I find the posts making definitive declarations that something that has happened even recently (late March snow) cannot possibly happen to be silly!

You’re doing play by play on the 300 hour gfs???

FULL TUCK

? It actually looks pretty good to me...

I’ll have to confirm but I think the 13.8 is the new 30 year. If it’s 10 I agree that’s sketchy. I think 30 is necessary since we know the climate is changing. Anything longer will skew cold/snowy compared to the current situation.

It all starts with a strong nino I do believe in that correlation. The last several super ninos (1973/1983/1998/2016) were all followed by multiple year hostile pacific patterns. But at the same time let’s not pretend the larger trend isn’t there either. The 99-02 period was worse then the comparable post nino 80s and 70s periods and the 17-21 period now was worst of all. And the frequency of sub 10” winters is increasing even independent of those post nino periods. So like I’ve said our recent problems are a combo of both. Both a shorter term hostile period coinciding with the continued degradation of our larger scale snow climo. There will still be peaks and wins but imo the valleys are going to be lower and more frequent.

Ive used it for mulch but yes you don’t want to put it near the house just in case.

it was a clipper...put down some 10" plus totals just to our northeast as it developed along the coast.

but you're thinking about it the wrong way...there is going to be a storm there either way. It's not going to be 60 degrees and sunny. What if your choices are 32 and snow that quickly melts or a 40 degree rainy day. Think of it that way and its different.

I did mean nino. I’m not saying enso effects are permanently muted. I’m just saying when the current pac pattern has persisted for 5 years through varying enso states it’s obviously not simply enso causing it.

Pac yes, enso imo not as much anymore because I’m not convinced the pac pattern is driven by enso. It’s been identical for 5 years through 2 ninos, 2 Nina’s, and a neutral year. Hard to argue that is enso driven! Is the pac a problem though regardless of what’s causing it, most definitely yes. Besides we can’t simply blame the Nina for ruining the -NAO. Nina history says that’s not accurate. Nina -NAO months in Jan Feb and March have actually been snowier then all other enso state -NAO months. Problem is a -NAO is rare in a Nina. This year was more the exception then the rule both in having a -NAO Nina and completely wasting it. BTW side note: the one exception is obviously moderate to strong Nina’s with a -NAO. That’s the gold standard. Those are when we get crushed with snow. Yes a -NAO still correlated to more snow in other states but if you take weak Nina’s, enso neutral, and Nina’s while a -NAO does favor more snow then normal the numbers aren’t crazy big. And Nina’s actually has better -NAO avg snowfall then neutrals and weak ninos. Small sample size though since there aren’t that many -NAO Nina months.

Palm Sunday 1942 was the largest storm on record in Westminster.

Good news is the weather don’t care what any of us think

Is banter allowed in the banter thread?

Your winter = my fall/spring