psuhoffman

Math. The NWP is working exactly as it should. Let’s just take the 3 major globals and ICON since it gets so many eyes due to TT. Thats 16 runs a day. Any given 10 day period during winter has about a 10-25% chance of snow depending on the week and where in this sub you are. If just one run of one model shoes snow in a day that’s not saying the NWP is predicting snow. Climo probabilities would say several runs in any given day should randomly have a snowstorm. If only 1-2 or even 3 runs a day have snow that’s below climo! The vast majority of runs don’t have snow! But no one pays attention to them. Making things worse often when it’s boring people start to post obscure stuff like the JMA or some individual ensemble member. Now we’re talking crazy stupid low chances if we use probabilities when only one run like that has snow. When the majority of runs start to show snow that’s when it’s fair to say the NWP is indicating a high probability of snow. They still bust in those situations too but many exaggerate by thinking the models are saying it’s gonna snow every time an individual run shows a fluke snowstorm when the majority of runs don’t. Then we get people like Tenman who come on and rant about how awful the guidance is and they show every possible solution. Well yes if run enough times at long ranges you will get a lot of permutations. And that’s where understanding statistics and probabilities comes in handy.

The main problem I see is that the system is coming across a little too far north. Look we know the STJ is likely going to be non existent and so a HECS is very unlikely but if we want some decent snows (for a nina) this kind of setup repeated in winter when the jet will be further south would be a good thing. So long as people don’t act stupid and get upset when we get 2-4” or 3-6” and Boston gets 1-2 feet. That’s just climo in a Nina and it’s going to happen. Best to just enjoy what we get and ignore the bombs that happen to our northeast.

Yea for like 20 years running

It looks generally seasonably variable. But if the Mjo wants to take its time so that we get an actual favorable pattern later in December I’m ok with that.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/23/opinions/target-closes-stores-for-thanksgiving-impact-alaimo/index.html Great article about the Target decision. I couldn’t agree more with every word. Perhaps some little good could come from the last 2 awful years if we reevaluate what’s actually important as a society.

It’s a clipper. Good luck pinning that down at any range. That said clippers can be nice up here if they take the right trajectory. I’ve had 4-6” a few times up here from a clipper. But it’s too early to know the track yet.

You are just a troll. You know nothing you say here will make any difference. Everyone here either knows or is willfully opposed. Absolutely nothing, not one little anything, will be changed by any of your posts here. And you know that! You’re just here to annoy people. And we know that. It’s not like anyone thinks you’re for real. You’re act is boring and tired.

This is a science based board. My guess 80% here agree climate change is a problem. But what do you think you’re accomplishing by posting your diatribes here? What possible solvency does this strategy have? Why aren’t you putting these efforts in a more productive way. Join an interest group. Lobby legislators. Go chain yourself to a tree or something. But leave us alone.

He was taking the dick position same as he does with everything else.

weather will weather whether or not.

You aren’t wrong…

So you’re saying he only deleted all your posts that make sense and leaves all the incoherent nonsense you post for everyone to see?

Everytime I see you post I’m amazed your computer still works underwater.

Retail stores have increased demand this week. I’m sure the workers can still get their normal hours and get thanksgiving off. But let’s say your assumption was true…so then the answer is to advocate for paid holiday leave. Instead you use one wrong to justify another wrong. But I would expect no less from you!

100%. It always bothered me as more and made stores opened on Thanksgiving. We have more than enough days to shop. There aren’t that many days like Thanksgiving.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/22/business/target-thanksgiving-stores-closed/index.html

It knows

2 years ago it seemed like a good idea.

These are the members who I have on the list so far...I intend to reply by email to everyone as I get them added. Please give me a day or so to respond before assuming I didn't get your email. Thanks! scraff WeatherShak georgeBM nwbaltimorewx LP08 wxWatcher007 mattieg kmlwx snowmon WxUSAF Ajb northArlington101 toolsheds MillVilleWx WinterWxLuvr

Starting a new thread just so people notice... I am compiling an email list to send invites to future video chats. This is so we don't have to post the links publicly to avoid trolls. If you would like to get the invites to future video chats email me at [email protected]. Please include your amwx handle so I know who it is. Your real name is not necessary unless you want to share. Thanks

7 so far

If people email me to be added to the video meetings list please put Amwx in the subject so I can easily filter and I don’t miss anyone. [email protected].

Yes! Sorry I’ve been really busy lately. But I think the first step would be to create a member email list we can use to send the invite link to the meetings. This would cut down on the chances of getting trolls if we post the link publicly. I can put that together. People can email me at [email protected]. I can share the list with you when it’s time to set up a meeting. Yes but I think having a preliminary meeting just to work out any kinks and give people a chance to say hi is a good idea. And there is always something to discuss wrt weather.

True but I’ll counter him with 3 points. 1) by day 15 the EPS and GEPS hint that pacific look was transient and not necessarily a huge problem. 2) It’s so far out and things have been variable at that range that I’m not sure his “alarm” is warranted yet 3) expectations need to be set accordingly. Imo our range of likely outcomes this winter wrt snow are awful to ok. The pac base state is likely to be more bad than good most of the time. I’m leaning toward “ok” but the way we get there is for the pacific ridge to be more poleward and the NAO to be favorable at times then time then up with a few periods of “less hostile” pacific longwave patterns. So far I see signs both those things might be true. That’s all I’m asking for right now.

He seems full tilt crazy on Twitter lately.