psuhoffman

That’s a perception that probably comes from the fact that even when we get a colder nina they still tend not to be great in terms of snow and the warmed ones can be just awful. this is all Nina’s in the past 30 years Dec-Feb If anything the trough is in the east more than the west. The obvious dominant effect is that central pac ridge. There are really 2 pattern types to Nina. When that ridge is flat all of the conus tends to torch and get flooded with pac puke. When that ridge extends poleward we tend to see cold extend from western Canada into the northeast. Problem is even in the colder look there is no STJ so we get a cold dry pattern usually. That’s still preferable and we can, with blocking, score some snow but absent 1996 we don’t get enough for a “big” winter even in a cold nina.

Comparing this season so far to similar cold ensos I do think that’s where we go at some point. But we mostly wasted similar good looks in some of those similar comps Ive been looking at so not sure how to feel. It’s too early to say what the base state is It’s possible what they mean are observed issues the guidance is having with initializing that feature accurately and not the tired waiting to come ashore thing. If you cared that much you wouldn’t live there

I remember a few years ago someone was arguing why a cold phase mjo wasn’t actually going to be cold using a bunch of really specific variables. I remember I got annoyed because I asked “well when those 18 things are all true what mjo phase do we want if 8 is no good and got no answer”. Maybe this will be another example of how the mjo works except when it doesn’t.

I heard ukmet was decent 1-3”

Across all guidance the trend is a better cold push but also a weaker system. That also means colder but in a Nina sheared apart is always a threat. This was always a thread the needle. Still is.

Icon is a little snow mostly southeast of DC but it’s largely a strung out weak non event.

It’s far enough to tell what would happen. It would be weak and very likely nothing of consequence. The SW is not amplified enough on the NAM.

Always

It would be incredibly rare to have a longwave pattern set in this early and dominate the whole winter. Not impossible but that’s not usually how we get a total dreg winter. The more common way (like 2002 and 2020) is when we waste a decent pattern in December into early January then a dreg pattern sets in early January that knocks out our best climo period. It’s not impossible to see this last 3 months but that isn’t typical even in our bad winters. But getting a better pattern doesn’t guarantee us anything either. In a Nina we tend to waste some good patterns also. But this is one reason I favor a not so good but not necessarily a really awful winter.

I’m quite pleased with the timing of the way everything is progressing. Getting our best pattern mid winter is always preferable. And I do fully expect the longwave pattern to evolve to a decent if not good one eventually. But a couple of the best nina analogs to right now, while the h5 pattern did improve significantly it was mostly wasted. I guess that’s somewhat expected in a Nina. When it’s cold it’s dry. So it’s likely still going to be a slog but I’ll take my chances getting our best looks between Xmas and March v now.

This was funny the first 10 times but you need to diversify your act.

I’d like to see some evidence the nearly constant pacific onslaught of the last several years was only a temporary cyclical thing because I can certainly think of some reasons it could be a product of changes related to “you know what” like the enhanced tightened gradient in the north pac due to the expanding Hadley cell. That, imo, has been problem numero uno in getting any real sustained cold here. Seeing signs that isn’t permanent would be welcome.

Sorry got really busy at work.

EPS isnt awful imo

the snow climo is so awful where you live that honestly you can get almost no snow in even a decent year wrt pattern.

It wasnt much but there were a few threats... I doubt this ends up THAT bad. Actually while Nina's are typically bad they arent usually the absolute worst total shut out years...those tend to be either enso neutral years where the pac and nao both go to crap simultaneously or strong east based nino's where warmth just overwhelms the continent. 1973, 1998, 2002, 2020 all fit those two categories. Even the worst Nina's typically have some cold shots and snow chances.

LOL. We will have some chances. Even in 2019/20 which was probably about as horribly bad start to end as a winter can be from a longwave pattern POV...we did have some opportunities. There was a chance at a coastal that year with a temporary setup from a hudson bay ridge which is a good way to get a snowstorm here in an otherwise crap hemispheric pattern. But the storm had a sloppy phase and didnt come together. But even in that year there were a couple times we got to track something and with a little more luck maybe we get at least 1-2 snow events that year. It wont be easy, but I still think we get some legit chances and its not a total dud.

can I say it????

It scores higher than the GFS, but those scores are based on large scale anomalies and not necessarily indicative of how well it does with what we care about, a very specific thing...snow on our lawns.

for fun I broke warning events for the 19 year period down by month. This is the raw numbers by month and the % each month produced a warning event any given year. Oct: 5%, Nov: 11%, Dec: 42%, Jan: 32%, Feb 58%, Mar: 47% Oct: 1, Nov: 2, Dec: 11, Jan: 8, Feb:16, Mar: 10

true... These records go back a few years before I got to this area...but these are the numbers of warning level events per year since that 2002 year...the last year without up here. I used the coop in town for the 4 years before I got here. 2003 3 2004 3 2005 3 2006 2 2007 2 2008 1 2009 1 2010 4 2011 2 2012 1 2013 2 2014 7 2015 3 2016 2 2017 1 2018 2 2019 3 2020 1 2021 5

It's possible accuweather cared about their reputation and professional integrity more and held him in check. It's possible weatherbell could be playing both sides...we don't really know for sure what they send to their clients...and at times the things he is saying don't completely align with what JoeD and others on Wxbell are saying. JB might just be the public hype man to get hits, attention, and weenie subscriptions.

Didn't you used to run the panic room???

I think he still knows what he is talking about...he is playing people for fools. There are times he is contradicting things he said earlier in the season (when situations change) or going against things others in his own company are saying or "forgets" things I know he knows from 2 decades ago when I used to correspond with him and he wasn't like this at all. He has either really totally and completely lost his mind or he is has simply sold out and doing it on purpose. It's probably a little of both but I still think its mostly an act. If he admits now that its probably going to be warm and snowless for the foreseeable future his subscription numbers for December will take a hit.

I hacked into his cam as he prepares today's video