psuhoffman

It’s also stronger with the trailing SW so maybe it will be a wash. But definitely less room to breath with less ridging and a more compressed suppressive flow in front of it.

Early on the euro also trended south and stronger with the lead NS SW. Expected as they was universal across all 12z guidance. That’s what I’ll be watching in future runs.

The pattern in the actual long range looks very cold but dry

As is a very nice gefs run. But I want to see the NS stop trending stronger on future runs. keep in mind there could be high ratios with this kind of setup. We don’t need that much qpf to get some decent snowfall totals. UK finally joined the party somewhat. I think we’ve seen a tightening on guidance. Some of the crazy north and south solutions are gone. From here on in imo it’s about the trade off between the lead NS SW and the trailing SW. Less suppressive NS and or more separation and a more amplified north solution. Less separation or a stronger NS SW and a weaker souther solution.

Depends what you classify as a “miss”. Do I think we get totally skunked again no. But it’s possible we only get 1-3” while areas south get more if the less amplified solutions win out.

Guidance also sped up the SW with our storm a bit which also decreases the spacing. Ideally we want the lead wave faster and trailing wave slower. The trend the last run was the opposite.

I dunno that tends to be a 50/50 thing. When we get a suppressive trend the final 48 hours it’s often from a NS wave over the top timed up badly. What more often causes the north trend is guidance underestimating the southern SW and the ability for it to gain a bit more latitude than they expected. That and often guidance underestimated the banding on the NW periphery of a system.

I tend to agree but the one possible fly in that is the NS system over New England just ahead of it is trending stronger and south. It’s flattening the flow and preventing more ridging in front. We’re seeing a trend towards a more amplified wave as expected but if the NS continues to trend more suppressive it will offset that. ETA: btw when you are in the chats please let me know if you want to take the floor, Im 100% sure we would all love to listen to your takes.

Dude you live in one of the dryest spots on the east coast!!! On top of that its obvious from your posts that you live in a local meso scale oragraphically induced minimum within the larger regional minimum. But you live in the shadow effect of the 4,500 foot Allegheny ridge in WV, one of the highest areas of consistent elevation in the apps. You're in one of the worst shadow effect regions there is in the entire east coast. But you expect that to suddenly stop or something? Any system with a westerly flow is going to dry up to some extent in your area. Unless you find a way to get rid of those ridges to your west. The only setup where you typically will do better that other areas in our region wrt precip is with a slow moving coastal where you get some easterly component to the flow and it banks up against the ridges to your west. Storms like 2016 and the first 2 in 2009-10 are where you can do very well. But weaker systems coming from the west and southwest...well you KNOW how thats going to go.

IMO there are 3 options on how this could evolve. You're right the NS wave is pretty far north. But the southern wave is pretty far south. Option 1: The end up too far apart and the southern wave slides off to our south and the northern wave misses to the NW and we end up in a dead zone in between. Option 2: They consolidate and phase more into a stronger system but that process happens far enough east for the system to transfer to the coast and bomb out from there. This is our "win" scenario Option 3: They consolidate too early and the system tracks to far NW.

GFS is seeing the duel max idea I mentioned as a possibility with this type of system. Obviously the max along the coast looks more impressive but that more inland max will have VERY high ratios and some surprisingly high snowfall numbers compared to what you would expect. In between is where you don't want to be...

At least the GFS and ICON are now seeing the same basic setup as all the rest of the guidance. Were entering the "fine tuning" phase now vs the "will there even be a storm" type debate.

Isn't he pretty far south? He might be rooting for the extremely squashed previous gfs solutions...if you're down in central or southern VA frankly thats your only chance, a more amplified wave will run north of them.

Me either...but this has 4-8" type potential if we can get a slightly more amplified system. Weaker and we run less risk of mixing issues but we also lose the higher potential and are looking at more of a 2-4" type deal. Given the fact I have had less that 1" snowfall total this winter I am willing to play with the fire to get a possible bigger outcome. I also am well aware that my location makes that gamble much more appetizing than for your location so I don't begrudge you rooting for the "safer" bet.

I am not sure how much is a true STJ as much as we've had a couple mid latitude SW's dig far enough south to tap into the gulf which is a raging inferno right now. All that warm water to our south and east is a problem with temps...but when we do get cold enough can be a real advantage also in terms of adding potential to each wave. Some of the precip output over VA and southern MD in just 12 hours from a relatively weak low pressure system earlier today was pretty amazing. Got to think the warm gulf and atlantic aided in that some.

Slightly more amplified on the ICON. Still a pretty minor event but slight improvement. I think/hope today was the bottoming out of the de-amplification trend and we see a slow move back towards a more amplified system from here on out.

I thought that was the 12z euro lol Not sure why all the rgem love...I thought the last 2 runs of the RGEM were significantly better. The 0z RGEM was a LOT less amplified and weaker...I know the 18z and 12z cut off before the main panels were visible...and maybe that's why, but imo it was headed towards a pretty big event across the area. This solution is definitely better for places south of DC though...more amplified in this setup could mean mixing south of DC...but for places DC north I thought 0z was worse than 18 and 12z. The NAM was a significant improvement though. Either way minor adjustments at this range are pretty meaningless. I also think this setup has more potential to trend north at the end. Today's event had no chance to gain latitude with the flow over top of it. This next system has room to climb the coast. SO long as we still have a healthy wave and it's not squashed to nothing entering the final 48 hours I expect a trend towards slightly more amplified in the final 24-36 hours.

Even if its a crap model its still better to have it look good than bad...even the NAM can sometimes be onto something if it's occasionally handling a detail better than the other guidance. We've seen it happen. People shouldn't have to apologize for mentioning a piece of evidence...even if its not something we weight as heavily as like a GFS or Euro run. This is the type of system that can have very high ratios somewhere on the cold side of the boundary. There can also be duel snow maxes with these types of systems, one max near the developing coastal and another further inland near the NS wave along the arctic boundary. This miller b has a southern stream component that starts in the gulf coast. It's a miller b because there is some interaction and a jump to a coastal associated with the NS system but usually, and I do say usually because there can be situations where a messy transfer screws us with these also, but usually these are not the type that leave us really screwed while dumping just north of us. Don't get me wrong, further northeast will do better...but its typically a more gradual increase with a miller b that originates to our south like this.

Gefs definitely improved presentation

When I pull the trigger I promise you will be the first to know.

It develops a lead wave and runs it out way ahead of the upper level support. That’s why you see the two areas of precip and nothing really gets organized. Is that possible? Yea. Do I think that’s the most likely, no.

There is this guy over at weatherbell…

Honestly we probably wouldn't want a triple phased bomb anyways...most of the time they are going to cut even more than 1993 did and produce more rain than frozen precip along 95.

glad I made my point clear!!!