psuhoffman

I honestly don’t know what to “root” for up here. If the deform doesn’t crank in time I get a pretty decent event from the mid level SW associated band. If the deform develops in time I “could” do even better but I’ve seen this enough to know if that gets going but stays SE of me I end up in the screw zone between bands from the subsidence on the NW periphery of the deform.

I didn’t get a flake from that last storm. Lol. But I plan on skiing WV this weekend. They look to get dumped pretty good tomorrow.

The Href did decent when I followed it the past few years. Didn’t pay much attention this last storm though.

The front is trending less positively tilted and it wouldn’t take much for a wave to develop to bring some snow. Not likely not a threat of a big storm but a sneaky threat worth watching.

@powderfreak hope you can help me out for planning. I’m very familiar with the local climo and what to expect from a typical upslope event at Stowe but less so Sugarbush. I know they do better than Killington south which miss out mostly on upslope but not as good as Stowe, Smuggs, and Jay. But how does it compare? What is a reasonable expectation at Sugarbush when Stowe gets their typical 12” upslope events? Either way it will be at least a couple weeks before I head up. Going to snowshoe this weekend since they’re looking at 8”+ from tomorrow and most of New England hasn’t recovered from the last thaw/freeze yet. I traded in my K2s and only have a pair of atomic access now. They handle everything pretty well except ice and I just don’t bother with it anymore. Rather save my $ and time for better conditions. Thanks for any inside info…

3k NAM gets the coastal associated band going fast enough that it overlaps with the SW associated banding and limits the subsidence zone giving the entire area a nice 3-5” snowfall. That’s the best case scenario but I still find it more likely there is a gap between bands with a general ~2” with two zones of 3-5” on either side. Still a general 2-5” snowfall is fine and some places in here will be near median snowfall by the weekend with a pretty favorable pattern ahead. In a Nina no less when a a week ago people were talking about the prospects of a seasonal shutout! The sky isn’t falling.

Depends where you are. Near I95 east yea you want that coastal to get going. NW of there actually wants the banding from the upper level SW along the jet streak to hold together longer. As soon as the coastal fgen banding starts to crank it will cut off that band further NW. It’s not a coincidence that runs that have a better coastal band DC east screw over places like Winchester, Leesburg, Frederick, Westminster. It’s not crazy if it’s right about developing that coastal banding where it does. That would kill the SW associated band and put up here is a subsidence zone and yes that does happen. I do get fringed up here. It’s not that rare. Actually it DC is getting cold smoke it’s pretty common. It’s just more than made up for by all the times I get 6” and it’s raining in DC.

You’ve come to the right place. Someday a clinical psychologist is gonna find this board and make a killing.

It’s like 2* at day 10 from a big storm. And the euro is often slightly too warm in the cold sector of storms at that range. Showed a big rainstorm day 10 in Jan 2016 also and I made a post about not worrying and that setup as depicted would trend colder assuming the major longwave pattern features were correct. I’m not saying it’s a lock just that worrying about the exact thermal profile on day 10 ops is a total waste of time.

Why do these new variants sound like old school bad guy transformer names?

New to the board are we?

I’ve seen some posts by even people I respect a lot implying we return to a strongly -epo because “Nina” which confuses me because that’s not actually an automatic Nina thing. I posted this on Twitter yesterday but it’s every Nina winter mean h5 since 1980. Yea the pac ridge is obvious and the +TNH and I’m not saying that’s a good look for snow here but it’s not necessarily a crazy -pna either. The NAM trough axis is actually more typically more east than it was. However, pointing out a “typical” Nina doesn’t necessarily translate to the current pac base state. Also hidden within that are actually 2 different Nina states. When there is a poleward epo ridge it NAO blocking (later in winter!) we tend to see the trough more east in North America. When the pac ridge is flat and or. +NAO we tend to see it west and a -pna and big SE ridge. I do agree the pac jet retracts and we get a retrogression off the NAM pattern. That’s not bad, that will give us a nice window during prime climo mid January! After that though I think depends on the high latitudes. Assuming we revert to the recent pac base state if the epo ridge dissipates and the NAO stays positive then we probably torch Feb. we don’t do slightly warm anymore. Any pattern that favors a ridge in the east means crazy warm anomalies recently. No reason to expect different. But I do think we get another period of high latitude help. Recent trends say it’s unlikely the AO stays positive the rest of winter. I also think the happenings in the pac had a lot to do with the coming +NAO. analog based pattern progression showed the NAO ridge was likely to retrograde to the pac side. It took longer than expected with the stalled mjo but the expected pattern progression seems to be resumed now. My best guess is we have to suffer a torch period at some point late Jan or Early Feb before things start to recycle up top. But I do think we get one more chance at snow after. Whether that’s Feb or we have to wait until March I don’t know. As grit eater says it’s all an educated guess at those ranges. But I’m sure it won’t be soon enough for some who start complaining about Sun angle by groundhogs day!

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A little while ago I apologized to you for my unnecessarily antagonistic posts towards you in the past. And I’ve not been hostile with you since. I’m trying to grow and mature. Better late than never. I still disagree with some of your opinions but you aren’t a troll and I can disagree and debate in a more respectful way. Trolls are different. They aren’t making posts in an intellectually honest way. They’re just trying to annoy. Yeoman is trying to get under your skin and you’re letting him. And the harsh reality is there are lots of people like that and they aren’t all going to just leave you alone so best to either learn to dish it back and have fun with it or just ignore them. You can’t “win” with someone whose goal is just to annoy you.

This sub has some of the best analysis and knowledgeable posters but we suck at not feeding trolls. Way to many people engage…and others get emotional and leave because of them. I’ll post a snarky comment for fun sometimes but that’s it. For those that are bothered by it I wish they could just learn how to use the ignore feature.

@mappyits going to snow. The question is where the 2 bands set up. We want to root for a healthier jet induced band. The coastal wont do us any good. If we get into the banding along the arctic boundary we could pull in 3-5” with high ratios. Otherwise if we get stuck in between that band and the coastal we probably get 1-3”. Where that sets up will be a nowcast thing. Euro likes us better for getting under that band. Gfs wants us in the dead zone. We will see.

Yes but only if we end up in one of likely 2 bands. Even with very cold temps places that end up in a subsidence zone between bands won’t get good ratios because of poor snow growth. That will cause an even greater disparity than those maps indicate. There will be a band to the NW fueled by the jet dynamics and a band to the SE fueled by fgen and the developing coastal along the coastal baroclinic boundary. You and I probably want to root for the NW band. I see little chance the coastal helps us. The euro wants to position that NW band nicely for us. Some other guidance puts us in the subsidence zone between the bands. That’s going to be a nowcast thing. But if we get into the jet induced band I could see places go 20-1 and pull some 4-5” totals out of .2-.3 qpf. It happens in these setups. Then a lot of 1-2” totals between there and the coastal band. I’m heading up there for the weekend. They are going to start working on the western territories again tomorrow. Hopefully they get it open by Saturday. Not going up to New England until they get some snow. They had rain and a hard freeze last week and no snow since. I traded in all my skis except for my Atomic Access which are great all terrain skis that handle everything well except ice. But I’ve reached the point I don’t bother going when it’s a sheet of ice anymore. Not worth it. The euro is the only global that picks that feature up well. You can scroll through the runs and see it has that Parrs ridge qpf max every run. It even does better at that feature than some of the high res models.

I haven’t liked the trends wrt the spacing between waves since yesterday across guidance. The euro has been most consistent in translating that to the surface across its runs.

On the positive side note the expanse of light snow well NW. problem is there isn’t enough room for the system to be amplifying yet as it makes the jump to the coast. So it jumps way out to the Gulf Stream leaving little energy/forcing behind. It wouldn’t take much to get the low center closer to the coast to be the main one and then suddenly you will see that expensive precip shield have more juice. It’s a relatively small adjustment to get a substantially better outcome.

yes and it wouldn’t take much to adjust back to a decent result but that’s been trending the wrong way since 18z yesterday. If it continues…

No one. Not enough room for the system to amplify along the east coast because of the stronger lead wave and faster trailing wave. Not enough spacing. So the system pretty much washes out. No one gets anything of significance.

The more suppressive flow won the trade off battle.

Good: more amplified second SW and more consolidated system bad: further south and stronger lead NS wave, less separation between systems, flatter flow in front.

Also a little faster with the second wave which decreases the spacing.