psuhoffman

Build the pattern and the snow chances will come. We do this every time. The snow always lags the pattern because there typically isn't a storm threat the minute there is some blue over the east coast. Yet every time were waiting for a good pattern the instant it shows up at day 15 people start getting frustrated when there isn't dark colors on the snow maps. Besides the fact those things are pretty awful to use in general, look at this week as an example. It's the 3rd wave/amplification of the trough in the east that is the first chance to put down snowfall. And there are likely 4-5 more waves after that coming in this pattern. But when this weeks pattern was at day 10-15 the snow maps weren't responding yet because it was too soon. Not taking any victory laps...those maps still don't mean anything other than that there ARE threats and will be opportunities to track in this pattern. We still need some luck and for one of them to produce. But I lol when some get worried if the snow means aren't responding when the good pattern is still not even starting until a week out.

I wonder why @Weather Willdidnt post the snow maps from the 12z ensembles?????

This storm is starting out a lot further south than a lot of the setups where we struggle with an inland track. And the mid and upper levels look great. I would ride with this! All 3 globals did something pretty wonky with the surface low. I could see a westward intrusion of a mid level warm layer of the upper low is too slow. But what typically happens in that situation is you get an initial thump of WAA snow then a huge dry slot. That’s the setup we had in Feb 2014. Then with that h5 track probably a deform round 2. Of course the whole setup could be wrong but as others have stated also I doubt the surface look the globals are spitting out if the mid and upper levels are correct.

Given where the Gfs/ggem are I’m ok if the euro trended towards a storm (it did) but still has a SE solution at this range. ETA: wow it somehow still pulls the same general crap as the Gfs/ggem even with a less amplified further south initial solution. In a nutshell…All the globals are slowing the system so much and then diving then next vort down the backside of the trough which once the flow relaxes to our northeast really sharpens the trough. Too much so actually allowing way too much easterly flow ahead of the low.

Euro is actually less suppressive with the flow over the top but it’s significantly weaker with the SW associated with yhe storm than the Gfs/ggem.

Was just about to say...Ill take my chances with a closed upper low passing over RDU and ORF in mid January with an arctic airmass in place leading into the event. Is is possible for it to do down that way...yea but unlikely imo. If this progression ends up close to correct at H5 I could see this evolving to something like the Feb 2014 storm where there was a big WAA snow ahead of the system then a huge dry slot with a lot of drizzle that blasted pretty far inland with the SE flow ahead of the slow upper low....then a round 2 with the upper low pass. Something like that is more likely imo than the surface low amplifying northwestward and a huge driving rainstorm with that setup.

I said after 12z yesterday's runs I wanted to see "changes" by todays 12z runs...that definitely happened lol

Do you get a commission for bringing that storm up as much as possible or something?

It's too slow with the cutoff low to our southwest leaving us under a strong SE flow and wrecks the mid level's pretty bad. But get a slightly faster progress or less cut off solution and it wouldn't take much to turn this progression into a big storm.

GFS and GGEM both cut the low off completely and are too slow...placing us under a strong southeast flow that blasts the coastal baroclinic boundary way west...then the low jumps due north to follow that boundary. That "could" happen...but that's a pretty rare progression also so I doubt we are done with the changes coming on future runs.

Why cant it start on dec 23? I don't know...but there has been 2 very distinct "pattern flip" trigger points to the US winter patterns over the last 30 years or so. One is in November and the other just after xmas. We have had plenty of cold/snowy patterns early but they tend to wane and expire just before xmas. And we have had many colder periods start just after xmas. For whatever reason xmas itself seems to fall in a dead zone. Whether that is just really bad luck or there is some legitimate causality out there to my anecdotal observations I don't know.

That type of synoptic setup happened several times in the 1950's 60s and 70s but has not been common at all since. And definitely with you on the skepticism of that look. Not sure what happened that long ago is really relevant to what is likely in today's climate. But I suppose it means it's not "meteorologically impossible" as someone likes to say...but maybe just more "meteorologically improbable"

Thanks for pointing this out Chuck... very interesting...that at the subsurface we actually have a modoki nino SST profile...and we have a VERY midoki nino pattern. That is an interesting concurrence.

I know people hate our typical warm Christmas but having a cold pattern set in early January is perfect to maximize our snowfall opportunities.

Sorry if some of this has been said but my morning are crazy right now and I don't have time to scroll through all the posts. My first thought when I saw the 6z GFS was "that's unlikely" simply because of "how" it pulled that off. There were 2 keys to what it did, the first was simply trending west and slower with the NS SW diving in from western Canada that becomes the storm. That part I can see happening because its been a trend across guidance the last 24 hours. That slowing allows more time for the suppressive flow to relax and that is critical because no guidance is backing off on the suppressive look at the start of the weekend. But even with that slowing the second just as critical part is how it handled the TPV lobes to our northeast and that was the part I found hard to buy into. It did a fujiwara pinwheel dance where the initial vortex lifts while a second one pinwheels around it to the west, dives in, and does a complete phase/capture and pulls the low straight up the coast. That's an incredibly complicated evolution. It can and has happened but its rare and even more rare for guidance to pick up on that and model it correctly at any type of lead. Frankly thats the kind of synoptic setup where I could still see the kind of huge last minute busts we used to get all the time still happen. Its so many moving parts and little details and models struggle resolving phasing in a fast flow to begin with. So my initial reaction was...yea right. But then the 6z Euro control went all in on that exact evolution. And scanning across all the overnight guidance...and specifically those features up top that seem to be the key, there was a trend across all guidance towards what the GFS spit out. Slower SW that becomes the storm...and a trend towards a duel pinwheeling of the flow up top. So I guess on review I am SLIGHTLY more optimistic then I was after just seeing the GFS op run...but to be clear the preponderance of evidence is still against it fully pulling off the phase/capture we need for that outcome, and even if the majority was showing that I would still warn that this is the type of setup that is very likely to have significant changes even at the last minute because of the crazy amount of moving parts in this equation. To sum it all up...I have no freaking idea.

In this case the suppression isn’t from surface pressure it’s from the mid and upper level steering currents. A combination of the trough axis being a bit too Far East and an amplifying tpv lobe to our northeast places a strong NW flow over the east that doesn’t relax until the system is too far southeast for us. Maybe that’s wrong but it’s the flow in the mid and upper levels we need to change.

On the Gfs the vort diving in behind acting like a kicker doesn’t help either. Of course it’s unlikely to be there next run.

If the flow relaxes some it will be a big storm.

lol just admitting my bias.

ETA: alsi I am biased towards wanting more amplified because if I miss a storm to the north at least it helps ski resorts and I can go find powered. A storm missing south does me absolutely no good in any way.

It bugs me that 1980 keeps showing up in analog packages. What happened that year I hope to never have to experience. 2 HECS and 2 MECS storms all hit NC/VA and miss north of DC. But I know no 2 years are the same and my “fear of fringe” is clouding my judgement.

The positive changes wrt to SW over the conus is being offset by continued negative trends with the flow to our northeast.

This is the kind of pattern where I fully expect something to become a clear discreet threat while we’re busy lamenting something else.

Thank god we don’t live at 10 mb. Plus it gets displaced in a few days then elongated and stretched in the long range. Furthermore it’s not coupled well to the TPV which is what impacts us a lot more. The PV isn’t very high on my list of problems right now.

Blue over us at 500 isnt always a unicorn Yea often a day before an event we want ridging if there is already cold locked in. Note the look I liked a lot more has a lot less blue.