psuhoffman

You can have the slider on the 25th if I can have that one

I have to go throw up now.

So we’re about 11.5 now?

I accidentally posted this in banter but it’s relevant to our future analysis. The Gfs love has been a bit exaggerated. It did get the Jan 3 storm right first but only by about 12 hours. The other guidance started trending north also just one cycle later. And the GFS way over compensated. 24-36 hours out it showed 6” for me and had 2-3” way up onto central PA. I didn’t see a single flake. The Gfs was awful with the next wave. It was consistently showing .4-.6 qpf along 95. We had 15-1 ratios. That would have been 6-8” if it was right. The NAM and Euro were much much better with that storm. It wasn’t very good with the amplified inside runner either. Actually the ggem probably did best with locking on to the extreme solution early and sticking with it. Gfs teased with a couple runs of big snow then went too far west for a couple runs then back too far east. And it looks to have been awful today. It’s been better then the joke it used to be and it’s been better than the euro but it’s not been killing it every time like some seem to think The Euro criticism has been valid though. It’s really mishandled several NS SS interactions lately, which to be fair was a known weakness but not making excuses it’s been bad and anecdotally it seems more jumpy and prone to tangents in the medium range since the last major resolution upgrade years ago. It does do an impressive job for a global with meso scale features now but maybe it’s now got some of the high resolution CAMs issues that can become problematic with Synoptics at range. Not sure that was really a good trade. Maybe, and just speculation, having a short range euro at high resolution and a longer range lower resolution focused on Synoptics past 72 hours would be better.

Snowshoe got another 4”, probably 5 since it snowed pretty foot for another 2 hours after that 6am ob. Plus they avoided any rain per cams it was snowing even yesterday evening. They are cleaning up out there right now. Plus no big base wrecking thaw coming at least until Feb.

I forgot to ask…what did you record for that wave Thursday night 2 weeks ago? I didn’t measure until the next day and might have been some compaction by then.

Depends where you are. It’s done for us in terms of anything meaningful. I’d still be mildly interested if I lived southeast of DC

The eps snow mean for us 2 days ago for Friday was 10 inches The euro has a very pronounced over amplification bias in the medium range. You’ve said as much many times. So when it was doing that mainly becauss it was the only model showing that amplified a SW it was pretty obviously bunk. There are times we could believe the euro on its own. If it’s a split flow STJ wave then I might buy the euro v all others. But never when it’s over amplifying a NS SW. You really can be one of the best posters when you want to be! For the record I enjoy some of your melts and rants but it’s better when it’s some of the time and when it’s warranted not 99% of the time. I’ve not seen a lot in terms of the typical Strat tea leaves that would support, only speculation. But he could be simply playing the odds using the recent cyclical trends and I’m doing that myself. It’s unlikely based on recent trends the NAO stays positive the rest of winter. I would favor later in Feb into March myself though.

The Gfs love has been a bit exaggerated. It did get the Jan 3 storm right first but only by about 12 hours. The other guidance started trending north also just one cycle later. And the GFS way over compensated. 24-36 hours out it showed 6” for me and had 2-3” way up onto central PA. I didn’t see a single flake. The Gfs was awful with the next wave. It was consistently showing .4-.6 qpf along 95. We had 15-1 ratios. That would have been 6-8” if it was right. The NAM and Euro were much much better with that storm. It wasn’t very good with the amplified inside runner either. Actually the ggem probably did best with locking on to the extreme solution early and sticking with it. Gfs teased with a couple runs of big snow then went too far west for a couple runs then back too far east. And it looks to have been awful today. It’s been better then the joke it used to be and it’s been better than the euro but it’s not been killing it every time like some seem to think The Euro criticism has been valid though. It’s really mishandled several NS SS interactions lately, which to be fair was a known weakness but not making excuses it’s been bad and anecdotally it seems more jumpy and prone to tangents in the medium range since the last major resolution upgrade years ago. It does do an impressive job for a global with meso scale features now but maybe it’s now got some of the high resolution CAMs issues that can become problematic with Synoptics at range. Not sure that was really a good trade. Maybe, and just speculation, having a short range euro at high resolution and a longer range lower resolution focused on Synoptics past 72 hours would be better.

The front also took on more of a vertical angle than guidance projected 24-48 hours ago which isn’t good. I noticed that last night but hoped I was just being pessimistic. When we do better with these anafront waves is when they ride more Wsw to ene along a stalled front not so much when the front is angled SSW to NNE.

It was snowing when I left for work but still 35 and no accumulation and heavier precip will be over in about an hour so writings on the wall. Changed to rain as soon as I was off my ridge. Again the problem wasn’t the changeover time. The guidance that had my area getting 3-4” had it mostly falling between 6-10am. I always knew the first hour was bogus as the snow wouldn’t stick immediately on wet 35 degree ground. And the last 2 hours went poof as the wave is more progressive than projected (but it’s been trending that way for days). The real bust was the wave is going to be further southeast as the cold arrives so less precip after the flip for places NW of 95.

The bigger problem isn’t the temps…they will crash in the next couple hours. It’s that the front is more progressive and the wave gets pressed south before the cold can get in. It’s only a couple hours off but that was the couple hours it was supposed to be snowing. I never posted much on this because I had a gut feeling this was how it would play out (we’re in a very suppressive flow right now) and I didn’t want to be a deb in the thread.

Gfs is dead to me

The adjustment we need is well within a typical error at that range. But if we really want to increase our chances to maximize potential getting that tpv back towards Hudson Bay would make it a lot easier to get something to amplify before it’s off the coast.

I would like to see the PV lobe set up a bit further west.

3

That was my read on it also.

Have to look at everything in totality. Without the blocked up flow in the northeast it would be a problem. Also the pac ridge is far enough east that with the trough still east of Hawaii and the blocked flow it’s probably gonna slide east. No way to know though. If it’s too slow and the flow relaxes it could cut.

Doubt that cuts

I have to approve of the new GFS...mainly because it finally figured out where I live.

Just looked…I’d be a little nervous relying all on the NS wave like that. BUT…did you see how close that was to timing up the NS and SS there. It was barely off and so it delayed the phase and was too late for us but it was super close. Even closer than the Gfs. I wouldn’t give up on the adjustment we need there at all from this range.

Don’t totally sleep on the 25 either. There is a healthy SS wave but the timing is off right now with the NS out ahead and so it ends up a NS miller b screw job. But if that timing adjusts like 12 hours on those waves suddenly it’s a hybrid and we’re in the game. It’s still at a lead where that kind of adjustment is well within typical error.

So you’re saying that on that run DC will be 5” above avg snowfall by February 1 and that’s the total disaster fail scenario? But what I was really talking about was the potential. Yea if just comes together late day 9 and over phases day 12 but you’re worrying about those details at those ranges when you know both storns will look different in 6 hours. Just being close at those ranges is as good as a hit. Probably better so we don’t have to suffer all those clown maps.

Yea but after we get a foot of snow on the 29th a couple inches of snow and ice a few days later is fine!

By then my fear would be the trough retrogrades too much and a west track becomes increasingly likely with something amplified. Right now we want something amplified with the trough axis. We got really unlucky with the timing wrt the last amped up storm but in general with the axis right on the coast more amplified is better. After the 30th it might get west if ideal and we would want weaker waves at that point. With enough cold can still get front end love just talking about how to get a flush hit here. We will likely continue to pad stats with minor stuff either way in this pattern.