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psuhoffman

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  1. psuhoffman
    I’m actually due north from the eastern edge of DC
  2. psuhoffman
    Gfs done lost its mind at 186 lol. Gfs keeps spitting out these snow hurricane solutions.
  3. psuhoffman
    But most importantly it’s close in a way that can actually work for us. Southern stream wave develops early and phases. Not some late developing all NS miller b crap. It’s trending towards a synoptic setup that “can” work here. That’s the most important thing at this range Imo.
  4. psuhoffman
    I’ve seen enough at 156. Hit or not it’s totally fine as an op run at this range.
  5. psuhoffman
    I like the amplitude of the ridge out west better. Should help this dig more which SHOULD help the phase happen further south and avoid the NS miller b issue.
  6. psuhoffman
    Yea not sure how this trade off will play out. like: slower, west dont like: more suppressive flow, but maybe it’s just slower to pump ridging.
  7. psuhoffman
    Gfs is digging further west this run.
  8. psuhoffman
    Comparing 12 v 18z gfs runs is tricky because there seems to be a timing difference. 18z is slower
  9. psuhoffman
    Main thing would be better wave spacing. 12z Gfs would have been a hit except for bad wave spacing. A stronger NS or STJ wave would help with ridging in front which becomes a feedback loop. Having the next vort dive in and phase v acting as a kicker would did it too.
  10. psuhoffman
    @HighStakes pointed out this morning the long range guidance does not look bad for early Feb. this is the kind of temp profile we want to get a gradient pattern to work.
  11. psuhoffman
    Up at Sugarbush so multiple comments in one post. Randy, you’re right gfs was way closer to the type of synoptic setup that can work here. Details don’t matter but we want more guidance to move to keying on the stj wave as the main player. It’s symbiotic. I identified this period because it was when the ridge/trough alignment would likely be right for something to amplify along the coast before it retrogrades too much. Thing is the wave break from the first wave creates a window behind it for another. This isn’t an unusual thing. It’s temporary. Eventually the trough will retro too much and at that point we want boundary waves not amplifying phased storms. That can work too just a different pattern. But I think assuming the first wave does amplify, even if it’s too late for us, it will create the opportunity for the next wave before that pattern door closes. Ask psu what winter was better. Ask Winchester people I’m on a ridge at almost 1100 feet. And that’s different from being in a valley or a plateau at 1000 feet because I get upslope flow which cools me even more. So I’ll take a marginal temp blocked pattern every day and twice on Sunday. March 2013 wasn’t a fail up here as another example. In the urban corridor temps are always a concern. They really need BOTH to get an epic winter usually so you’re debating different poisons here. But this year with the cold probably gives DC a greater chance at simply getting snow from any given storm. Blocking only helps if it’s cold.
  12. psuhoffman
    Cause we don't have blocking for that kind of track Bingo. A lot of our big blocking snows actually happened with a ridge/trough alignment that wouldn’t have worked without blocking. That west of the apps then forced east thing only works with blocking. Otherwise it would continue to cut up west! Blocking gives us a huge range of tracks that work because anything that tries to cut gets forced to turn east and we’re at the right latitude to be under the frozen precip often when that happens. Any storm that tries to amplify north between the coast and Mississippi can work. We’ve even had snow with a primary to Chicago with blocking! But without it we need to thread the needle. We need the storm to amplify and turn north along the southeast coast. Any further west and it cuts. East and it’s a fish or Boston storm. We have a much narrower win window without blocking.
  13. psuhoffman
    People who just look at the blue pixels won’t like this but I wasn’t a fan of the 6z Gfs. Relying on a phase and coastal development at your latitude is extremely dangerous and fails 90% of the time. That’s a typical miller b tease scenario. The Gfs snowed on us simply by developing the miller b quicker and further west. It didn’t actually do what I want to see which is key more on the stj wave like it was doing in earlier runs and develop a healthy system in the southeast that can get captured and lift north. That “hybrid” progression is better for us. If this becomes a NS dominant miller b scenario those rarely work regardless what models show 7 days out! I don’t really care where the miller b develops on guidance what I’m hoping to see if a move towards developing an STJ wave earlier and phasing with it further south. A pure NS dominant miller b will end in tears.
  14. psuhoffman
    The last major NS buckling dug into KS. This time (on progs) it’s digging into Indiana. Somewhere in between is our sweet spot.
  15. psuhoffman
    There were really only 3 big hits. But they were slower. One of the 3 a full 2 days slower. I think that one was the “get the first wave out of the way and go with the next” idea.
  16. psuhoffman
    @yoda you’re right though the majority are a miss and support the op solution. Just saying wrt timing the slower solutions were better for us.
  17. psuhoffman
    We’re calling 6” “not much” now? When did we become Boston???
  18. psuhoffman
    @Ji I got 50” last winter. I certainly have no right to complain. And while I’m not doing well so far…considering February and March are my 1st and 2nd snowiest months…I will likely still creep closer to climo yet. And if we do enter a gradient pattern that can be a lot better up here. As for your exact location…you barely missed the big totals Jan 3. That sucks. But for a Nina you’re still ahead of typical pace. We are due for a MECS or HECS level storm but that’s likely going to have to wait until next year if we get a modoki Nino!
  19. psuhoffman
    But other then that how was the show Mrs Lincoln?
  20. psuhoffman
    My timing suspicions seem to be confirmed by the gefs. Several hits do eventually show up…but they are a day or two AFTER the members that hit New England with a Miller b like the op.
  21. psuhoffman
    You would think this is good…but the individual members show nothing.
  22. psuhoffman
    Models are speeding up the NS wave. Problem with that is the timing is now off and most of the STJ wave that was responsible for the better hybrid looks gets left behind. That makes it more a miller b scenario and we all know how a Nina miller b is likely to end for us. Still time to shift back towards what we want. Several options. 1) get the 1st NS SW to slow down. 2) get it to dig further west 3) get it to speed up and clear out because there is another behind it that could link up with the stj a day or two later. Right now the timing looks off. We just need it to adjust faster or slower
  23. psuhoffman
    It’s still VERY early to worry about details…but needing a west trend is not the same as needing a north trend. I’d always prefer needing a north trend v needing a west one because at long range guidance is often too far south with features…but they are also often too fast to phase and amplify with stream interactions and that makes a west trend less “with the typical bias error”. Doesn’t mean we can’t get that. And not even sure we need it, we’re just talking about two op runs which at this range means nothing. But I don’t want to see guidance converge on a late developing scenario. Those are harder to reel in than having it show some big snowstorm south of us that slides out.
  24. psuhoffman
    We have Ji for that and he isn’t a jerk and is actually funny Imo. Avant Regent or whatever he calls himself tomorrow adds no value in any way. Attacking @Bob Chill was the final straw for me. Don’t even want to acknowledge him anymore.
  25. psuhoffman
    Truth
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