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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
    Yes but no idea if that’s a bias of tge fv3 based Gfs. I’ve not noticed that tendency anymore. And other guidance is all doing it too. I think the timing is still just a little off. Not 100% unworkable but we need some changes. The stj wave being rather weak isn’t helping either.
  2. psuhoffman
    Fwiw I think you’re really good at this. The last couple days every run you do PBP your posts are exactly what I’m thinking as I look at the run.
  3. psuhoffman
    Icon was a big step in the wrong direction at h5. 18z was pretty close. But 0z left almost all the evert behind and went back to the pure miller b idea.
  4. psuhoffman
    It left some energy behind but the NS still dig far enough west to initiate cyclogenesis with that wave in the gulf. And then it still took one of the most ridiculous bomb/capture/tuck scenarios I’ve ever seen and we were still on the western fringe. You really want to roll that way? You know how close that was (basically a slightly less extreme capture tuck) from an end result identical to a certain Nina storm we don’t even mention around here! We really want a storm coming at us from the SW or SSW. If we need something to be pulled in from our east we’re in bad shape. That’s a losing scenario 99% of the time.
  5. psuhoffman
    @stormtracker this feature isn’t doing us any favors. It’s preventing the key SW behind it from amplifying by flattening the flow some right in front. Simply it’s not enough wave spacing. We’re now at a range it’s safe to say that’s real but the timing can adjust. Weaker and faster with that feature is better imo. Slower and stronger with the next SW is better. Increase the spacing between those SWs would help.
  6. psuhoffman
    The only way that would work would take a crazy ridiculous capture and tuck scenario off the SE coast that’s VERY rare. The simpler path, and we do better with simple, is for the energy not to split and have the NS just phase with the further west stj wave in the gulf. Then we don’t need as radical a trough amplification to win.
  7. psuhoffman
    There are 3 synoptic scenarios showing up. 1) the NS doesn’t dive in far enough SW to phase with the STJ at all and just becomes a late development NS miller b. That was the favored progression on guidance 24-48 hours ago. 2) the NS digs further west but leaves some energy behind then actually has a messy phase with a weaker stj wave further east off the SE coast. That’s the current favored setup and that still won’t work. 3) this has only shown up on a few runs but it’s a perfectly reasonable possibility. The NS digs further SW but doesn’t elongate and split such that the phase happens with the stj wave In the gulf not the one off the SE coast. That’s what we need.
  8. psuhoffman
    Your efforts are always appreciated, it’s just a shame they’re needed so frequently because some people can’t act grown.
  9. psuhoffman
    How bout people just stop acting like clowns so we don’t need her to waste her time cleaning up our mess
  10. psuhoffman
    Just off the top of my head BWI had 11.5” in Feb 2014 in a +AO/NAO storm. March 93 was a +AO/NAO. There is probably a bigger storm if I look through the records but I’m not home. But I said I don’t expect a hecs. Said that’s unlikely without blocking multiple times in the last couple weeks. But I can think of numerous examples of 4-8 or 6-12” storms in our area in a EPO/PNA driven pattern with no high lat help. If anyone is expecting a hecs then I agree with you but I don’t think that’s what’s going on. I bet 90% here would take a 4-8” storm.
  11. psuhoffman
    Clean up on aisle 6
  12. psuhoffman
    Revelstoke is tied with JH for best terrain imo. Especially if you like tree skiing.
  13. psuhoffman
    Some act like it’s easy for us get a snowstorm without blocking. Then you act like it’s impossible. It’s somewhere in between. A -epo positive NAO Nina pattern can be dry. But we do sometimes get lucky. As the pattern retrogrades this was the best window for amplification near us. Doesn’t make it high probability but the best we had. Overall I thought our best opportunity was last weekend had that not closed off way too early. After that I thought one of these west to east waves would get us but I get we’re all spaced too close abs weak and nothing could activate the baroclinic boundary. This is the best shot we have left before the pattern shifts. Too early to know what our chances will be after the reshuffle.
  14. psuhoffman
    Had some amazing days at Alta. JH 2 years ago during that 40” dump was pretty epic. Was in Revelstoke a week it snowed almost everyday in 2013. That’s got to be my top 3.
  15. psuhoffman
    This is way more typical of a epo driven pattern with no blocking than 2014 & 2015. Those years might have falsely convinced some it’s easier to get snow absent blocking than it really is.
  16. psuhoffman
    I want to be in Utah. Alta kicks ass
  17. psuhoffman
    Pretty good day at Sugarbush yesterday and Killington today. Little thin but soft on the natural terrain. Kinda cold to start yesterday, about -17 when I hit first chair. Today was warmer, 20s, and snowed about 1-2” at Killington bottom to top. Driving home now. My Washington in the background whiteface in the background across the Lake
  18. psuhoffman
    I don’t get the obsession with Boston. It’s 8 hours away, same distance as Toronto, and averages 3x more snow than DC. Vastly different climo. Many of our storms don’t hit them either! Why do people get so upset when they get snow and we don’t? Isn’t that what’s supposed to happen???
  19. psuhoffman
    The look at the end of the ensembles looks transitionary to me. I certainly don’t like the +epo look. But the AO is going negative. Question is where does that go and we can’t see the other side yet and things are too unstable right now to make more than a WAG. I don’t think guidance is trending yet. What we’re seeing is guidance jumping around between various possible synoptic permutations based on subtle timing and amplitude difference is all the Sws involved. Once they settle on a common synoptic progression and stabilize then we might see stable trends one way or the other. You need to separate his satire from his topical posts. We’re in a NS steam dominant Nina pattern with no blocking. I think both know what the most likely outcome is here and should prepare ourselves for that. Doesn’t mean we can’t get a win here. It can happen sometimes…but Boston has much better odds than we do.
  20. psuhoffman
    Its not close at all. If there is no southern stream involved...its a miller b and we have zero chance. Horrid run It seems to be a timing difference. The slower NS solutions were better because they phased within a STJ wave that the slightly faster solutions leave behind. One of the previous Gfs and euro even even managed to phase the next NS wave with that stj wave. Problem is guidance seems to be converging around the faster solution for the first NS wave and it’s too chaotic to even speculate what happens behind that.
  21. psuhoffman
    Great so once a storm is inside 84 hours there is basically no down time. We all gonna be like by the time a storm actually starts.
  22. psuhoffman
    Sorry I meant that to him not you…hit the wrong quote
  23. psuhoffman
    Kuchera says 27” for you and 24” for me. I can live with that.
  24. psuhoffman
    In 3 runs it went from way OTS to 25” in DC. It’s 7 days away.
  25. psuhoffman
    Lol
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