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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
    Uh oh
  2. psuhoffman
    Euro and NAM were both way too far west. Everyone jumped on them. EE rule.
  3. psuhoffman
    This…all that really matters is where the storm develops in relation to us. All the other crap is irrelevant. We can do well in a miller b the rare times the NS digs enough to initiate a healthy storm to our SW. PD79 for example. But we tend to call those hybrids simply because in doing so they often tap the gulf and so have stj interaction. Whatever. If the storm develops south and west of our lat:long we do good. If we’re relying on a perfect capture tuck to wrap a deform back into us from the east…99% of the time that’s a fail.
  4. psuhoffman
    Not very similar. Miller A in a classic pattern with a -NAO with departing 50/50. Some called it a “thread the needle” at the time simply because we were in a Nina but I always thought it was a pretty classic big storm setup Nina or not.
  5. psuhoffman
    Most of the area got 3-5” from that storm…places north or east of Baltimore more like 4-8.
  6. psuhoffman
    Typically a miller a starts out as a SS wave in the gulf often in a split flow with the NS out of the way. If there is phasing it’s later after a mature STJ storm has already developed. Miller b storms are NS initiated and such more often are associated with a much more amplified wave and have the NS energy to tap and also often a greater baroclinicity due to the NS involvement.
  7. psuhoffman
    Sure
  8. psuhoffman
    The surface changes didn’t do the improvements Justice. It’s worlds apart. 12z euro h5 would argue there a lot more room for a better surface outcome even without much change there. 12z v 0z
  9. psuhoffman
    @stormtracker it’s much better than 0z euro at h5. We’re still far enough out that is more important than surface details.
  10. psuhoffman
    Fixed
  11. psuhoffman
    One difference I see early is the SW that will eventually become the storm is more amplified diving down in western Canada
  12. psuhoffman
    Just the second storm.
  13. psuhoffman
    It was close to 30” here but impossible to measure from blowing/drifting.
  14. psuhoffman
    Yup that’s a rule we really need to remember. The majority of the time the back edge on these ends up a little northeast of guidance 24-48 hours out. that has screwed over NYC and Bos too we just don’t notice those because we were way out of it if they were on the back edge. We really want to see this continue to develop further southwest so that we’re not relying on a capture and tuck to pull in precip from our east. Even that ggem run everyone’s excited about would make me really nervous because any slight delay in the capture/tuck and all that beautiful deform snow ends up over NJ instead.
  15. psuhoffman
    Don’t listen to this guy he obviously has no idea what he’s talking about.
  16. psuhoffman
    Some of that is just run to run noise. Remember the precip is probably the least accurate thing on models. At range you’re be better off forecasting without even looking at it most of the time and just using experience to fill in what the surface should look like. If I had to guess why there is a slightly more expansive western precip field here ifs because that little NS impulse in front is weaker than 6z and so the STJ wave has less interference initially in transporting moisture northward.
  17. psuhoffman
    If the NS digs and phases earlier/cleaner the early strength differences in that SW won’t matter.
  18. psuhoffman
    It’s weaker with the SW coming through MT at 60. I don’t like that. What started the improvements last night 0z was that coming in stronger and it continued through 6z. This run is markedly weaker. maybe it won’t mean much but i don’t like that early on.
  19. psuhoffman
    Euro finally got on board with the bomb solution. Sub 950 off New England.
  20. psuhoffman
    It was a significant improvement. Rome wasn’t built in a day. 0z was a good run. Now we need to build on it and not slide backwards at 12z.
  21. psuhoffman
    I’m inside out
  22. psuhoffman
    @Ji This setup reminds me a bit of the early Feb 1995 storm (see below). That was a +AO/NAO pac driven pattern. Very similar progression wrt the NS with a weak STJ wave also. If I recall that was a decent storm for us but obviously had bigger totals to our north. But that’s kinda a best case scenario for this storm type and what we should be rooting for here.
  23. psuhoffman
    Honestly we’re fighting an uphill battle and we both know the odds are we lose. But it’s not hopeless. We’re seeing incremental improvements towards what we need. There is enough of an stj wave chillin down there that if we continue to see these improvements it could lead to cyclogenesis being initiated further SW in the gulf coast and suddenly we’re in the game. I wouldn’t put money on it but we’re in better shape than KC was with 13 seconds left.
  24. psuhoffman
    @Ji @stormtracker all these minor adjustments were tracking at from what I can tell the way the ggem gets it done is simply because it has a significantly stronger SW diving in from western Canada than other guidance. I mean…that works.
  25. psuhoffman
    Don’t sell yourself short. Some pbp in here can be a cross between a 3 stooges episode and a Shakespeare tragedy. You’re have been measured and insightful and focused on what actually matters.
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