psuhoffman

So I've been clear I am VERY skeptical of this setup just simply because of what the results of all past similar synoptic scenarios were.... but on this euro run its because of the mid and upper levels. And the way the h5 closes off well to our SW like that might even argue the low COULD tuck in closer to the coast...but regardless it has that huge western extent due to that pretty perfect mid and upper level progression. If this had linked up with that gulf wave and had that upper level progression we would be looking at a HECS in the cities.

Enjoy this run (if you are in the northeast half of the sub) but be careful... the euro has a bias to be over amplified and too generous on the western extent of these miller b storms. My words will have absolutely no bearing on the outcome and you are all totally welcome to ignore me or tell me to shut up...but for me...seeing the euro as the furthest west solution at this point is not shocking...and not very comforting either. If we see other guidance converge in this direction then I would start to build some confidence for a better outcome.

I think we're thinking similarly about this. Am I praying for some miracle capture/tuck sure...but the tracks being advertised are very very similar to the bomb cyclone in 2018 and the January 2015 storm and several others where we tortured ourselves for a week praying for this or that to somehow change the outcome when the problem is just a fatal flaw in where the storm is staring out. There is only so much improvement any trend in this or that variable can do for us when the storm isn't even starting to develop and mature until its already well east of our longitude. It's already too late at that point barring some kind of miracle once in a generation type capture and tuck thing. Some of the 12z runs (euro looks good too) kinda max our potential with the NS SW though. That's by far our best bet here.

Yea... So I went through records and plotted all the storms similar in evolution to this (miller b that initiated a secondary coastal east of our longitude off the coast) that actually managed to produce warning snowfall for most of our area (centered on DC and Baltimore) and plotted them in red. Then I plotted the recent examples of fails in this scenario from the last 20 years in black. I got a similar number in each sample because I went back 100 years to get the win's and only had to go back about 20 years to get the fails LOL so this isnt totally 100% scientific but it gives a good idea what we want. The one purple was a warning event for places from Baltimore north and east but with a sharp cutoff and screwed over DC and anywhere southwest of there. This gives a pretty good idea where we need the surface low to track. These tracks 150 miles off the coast just arent going to work, if we want a significant storm to get back to most of our area we need the low to tuck in real close if no right on the coast. The OTS track is going to end very similar to the bomb cyclone in 2018 and all the other teases we tracked.

Some of us try to do a little work once in a while.

Icon was a marginal improvement imo. That's as much as I want to go into it.

Some random thoughts as we prepare for todays guidance. 1) This is not necessarily pertinent to the current euro runs...(but it could be) but once we get within 48 hours beware if the euro and NAM are both west of all other guidance. Right now the NAM is at a range where its going to get major synoptic features wrong so it doesnt matter...but the final 24-48 hours both the NAM and EUro have a notorious over amplified west bias with these miller b storms. Together they are responsible for the worst busts and teases that have happened. They were the models that teased NYC with 30-40" of snow in January 2015. They were the models that teased my area and northeast MD with 6-12" in early March 2018 when we got nothing. They were the furthest west and overdone with the western fringe in the 2018 bomb cyclone and the 2017 coastal scraper and teased Baltimore for a time when the back edge ended up east of the bay. Other guidance was too far west with some of those also but only barely...they were by far the worst offenders each time. Just keep that in mind if in the final 24 hours the NAM and Euroare showing the deform crushing us but the consensus of all other guidance is just east of us. And frankly...no matter what the guidance shows I would adjust the back edge about 25-50 miles east of what it shows 24 hours out...because 90% of the time that is what happens in a miller b. 2) Our best bet to not get totally skunked is the snow associated with the NS wave like @WxUSAFhas been talking about. 3) I am praying for a miracle just like everyone else and just as excited when some run comes in that shows maybe, just maybe, this is the rare exception to the rule and we are in the game for more than just scraps. But I think everyone should simply admit the reality of how 90% of these types of storms end. We have tortured ourselves with plenty of these over my lifetime. We tracked that 2015 storm that ended up crushing eastern New England until it was obvious we were out of it inside 48 hours. We tortured ourselves trying to will that bomb cyclone and the early March 2018 storms west. I could go on and list like 10 more examples of similar setups to this but if I brought up some of those dates @stormtrackerwould have to ban me. That is not to say there is NO hope... once every LONG time a crazy anomaly can happen. March 1958 is probably the best example of a miller b that initiated a coastal storm way southeast of NC and captured and tucked it back into the mid atlantic coast and bombed us. But that had some extreme blocking and it was March with shorter wavelengths....so. The Feb 95 storm is a really close match at h5 but at the surface that had a bit more STJ interaction which is what I was hopeful for a few days ago. From range my hope was the NS would dig a bit further west and link up with the stronger STJ wave in the western gulf. It seems pretty clear that is not happening and the STJ gets left behind here and the NS goes it alone. That changes the equation if a not good way for us. The type of progression we are looking at is mostly a fail here the VAST majority of the time. SO I really think we should look at this as if we are huge underdogs and if we win great and be thankful but not get all bent out of shape if things trend towards what climo says is the 90% probability and we all should expect. Save the "why is this happening, the sky is falling" crap posts. If it goes that way its because that is normal climo for how these types of storms usually go. Its normal and should be expected not treated like the universe is so unfair. We know our climo and we all choose to live here so....suck it up. Now on to rooting for the 1 in 100 type fluke to happen here!

From observation the euro control is typically very similar (but lower res) as the op inside about 120 hours. So I think it’s valid when they match at 90 to use the control to get a general sense where the off hours op was going the next 24 hours or so. Beyond that it loses value. And it’s no more valuable than the op which has debatable value lately. And it won’t see details like the op due to lower resolution. Take all that however you want.

Funny that’s how I treat your posts at all times!

We win 99% of the time. I’m not gonna carry on if we take a loss this one time.

At this point we might be better off if the coastal is even slower to develop or have that weak wave off the southeast escape completely and get a nice minor event from the NS SW.

I’ll open the zoom at 10:15 this evening and keep it open until the Gfs rolls out.

It was actually worse than 12z. Better track but tighter qpf field. @WxUSAF I agree that our best chance at a decent event might have been from the NS wave but it doesn’t look like the right set up. That trailing vort diving in phases and starts to cut off the SW just before it gets to us. At that point the coastal is going to explode and everything else will shut off. In a way we might end up regretting rooting for the more amplified trend if it stops just short.

Weve seen almost every combo of angles..movement..phasing...and they all give us at best an advisory event. When is the next window? Boundary waves in Feb. but those aren’t long lead tracks. Bunch of waves and we need luck with spacing. Anything with too much room to amplify will cut. Need a string of weaker waves.

I can understand the western crews frustration. Winchester improved 2/10ths of an inch. 5 more similar improvements and they still only get 3”! I think the limitations of this setup are starting to show with how some rather significant improvements in the h5 setup only yield very minimal difference for places NW of 95. It’s mostly improving places further east indicative of a stronger storm due to those improvements but not necessarily one with a further west qpf field.

Who is “they”?

I know it’s frustrating…it’s that even rather large improvements in certain aspects only yield incremental marginal improvements in the final result wrt snowfall. And that’s due to the limitations of this synoptic progression for us. The storm is in its formative stages until near our latitude. These improvements can continue to edge things to a marginally better outcome but unless the progression changes it’s not like we’re suddenly going to get a run with a deform back to WV or something. Only way that happens is the lottery level scenario that somehow it digs enough to activate the gulf stj wave instead of phasing with the weaker stj wave off the SE coast. But the timing seems off for that to work. The NS is coming in too far ahead of it. And I’m not sure that’s even fixable since to dive in that far west would probably end in a cut off or energy left behind to rot like the Gfs.

gfs Euro Several intricate interactions affecting the outcome. But I’m kinda shocked as bad as the Gfs mucks them all up it still had a storm at all even for Boston. Testament to how good the setup for a major amplification is. GFS is out of sync with all the parts. The ridge is so far west that the original SW (c) elongates and splits off from the NS trough. Look at the separation between C and B (the energy at the base of the NS trough). Lastly the nail is that A is weaker and coming in too flat to amplify and turn the axis of the trough negative in time for us. On the euro the ridge is slightly better, C and B are more in sync and A is diving in due south to amplify and turn the axis of the trough. Similar to what happened last weekend only this time we want that since the whole process is happening further east. I did identify this pattern as possibly conducive to major amplifications but we might get 2! But I also warned that such storms, while fun to look at and track aren’t necessarily what we want to get a lot of snow. A simple boundary wave was probably a safer bet. these bombs (with no blocking and they usually don’t) give us a narrow window. Trough cuts off too soon and we go to rain. Slightly too late and we are smoking cirrus. It’s not like a west to east boundary wave where in a cold pattern we tend to be about the right latitude to cash in as the boundary wobbles north and south with waves among it. And it’s not like blocked patterns where any track between Ohio and the coast works since the block will force a cutter to transfer east. (any further west and the storm will just wash out). I have no idea which runs are handling these features best but I know this is very complicated and we don’t often do complicated well. Simple tends to be what works more often around here. But we’re still in the game.

the control and eps will in an hour. The control and op don’t typically diverge that much until post 120 hours so you can get a pretty good idea what the op would have done. 8pm.

18z rgem to 84 hrs then 12z ggem after.

Says the dude 100 miles east of me. Lol sorry had too. But it is valid for the NW crew we still weren’t really into it and needed more west trends so a setback is more problematic. Also we all know these miss east 90% of the time so seeing the best global recently go that way feels more meaningful that it should. But it could easily be a blip or head fake. We won’t know until 0z.

Take a joke dude

Subtle differences. The SW was further west but the trough was more progressive so instead of riding the base and amplifying it stretched and got left behind.

This is mdecoys fault for that stupid “I can chase this anywhere” post. Snow gods heard and said “hope he has a boat!”

Didn’t want to say anything too early but the SW digging further west is only good if the trough is also tilting more amplified and less progressive. A west dig with a more progressive trough and the SW elongates and gets left behind.