psuhoffman

Progressive NS dominant pattern. Has always been a weakness of the euro. This storm particularly is a type it always struggles with. Over amplifies them. The Gfs improvement is also making it look worse by comparison. In the past they would both be sucking and we would just be saying “models can’t handle this pattern”.

It’s just happening 6 hours too late. If that h5 look at 72 was when the surface low was still down off the southeast we would be good. But the low is already to our east by the time the flow goes negative and then cuts off. That’s too late to do us any good with the coastal. Even if the surface showed a good result I’d be skeptical with that progression.

But the guidance has actually been good at identifying this as a likely miss to our east. And that NEVER wasn’t the case. Like I said earlier people just convince themselves otherwise.

@Bob Chill I’m more disappointed in the degradation of the NS SW and upper level low pass. That has some potential v the coastal that I’ve never been excited for. Hopefully that stops trending south.

Ji speaks in exaggeration. But he’s right that ALMOST everytime this happens. But that’s our fault. Partly the way we analyze the model runs and partly fooling ourselves. Because the truth is very rarely is a setup actually a high probability one for us. But a lot of our snow also comes from getting lucky like 10% of the time on the much more common low probability long shot chances we get numerous times a year. 90% of them will fail and in the back of our minds we know that. But we still get our hopes up when one or two fluke runs show the lucky low probability outcome we want and think “maybe this is the one”. The other issue is how we digest guidance each run. We knew this wasn’t a good setup. And we never once had the preponderance of evidence in favor. The most we ever had one one model in any given suite showing a hit. First the GFS then Euro. But every run we dig to find some shred of evidence to suggest it’s trending to that rare lucky fluke. I hear things like “it’s a miss but it’s heading the right way”. No it’s not. It’s a single model projection. It’s not heading anywhere. It was just slightly better than the last run. The next run is just as likely to be worse. But we manipulate the data in our heads to think “it’s trending better”. We put too much weight into the one piece of good evidence when 90% is bad. This happens every low probability threat then people get disappointed when what was always the 90% option happens.

Like a week ago I said our chances would be a lot better if we could get the tpv back towards the Hudson Bay instead of where it was further east north of Quebec.

Same link. Im just reusing it unless we have any issues.

I’ll open the zoom at 10 tonight

I emailed the links to prevent posting them publicly to reduce the risk of trolls. But we haven’t had any issues so far.

Oh god not this again

I could get on around 10

That almost has the profile of where I want the snow mac 72+ hrs out. Weird

Whatever the outcome I’m thankful we get to do these PBP. They’re a lot of fun. But can we just all agree to put the whole clowns on ignore! The mods can’t catch every post and we’re only encouraging them with the reaction. If we ignore them they will go away when they don’t get the reaction they want.

It has the low 300 miles further northeast at the same time. Not "quite" as good?

We need to see some of the non euro/NAM guidance trend this way. But this is why the NAM would work v what the global's have been showing. I placed the NAM SLP position onto the GFS plot from the same time. You can see where the NAM has the low its not crazy to get it into our preferred track. From where the GFS is...forget it. Even with the same trajectory from there its not going to be close. We absolutely need the secondary to develop southwest of the OBX not out east of it.

when it has the right synoptic idea the NAM can get details right the globals miss. But the problem is its hard to know when its got the more general synoptic setup right. And at this range its really prone to wild swings. But very early on which is in its range, improvements happened each of the last 3 runs. I think the idea of it leaving less behind is a good real trend. The stuff at the end...eh

It's just the NAM and we all know the dangers of using it at range...but like you said it does what we want. Where it's going is clear here...that low is going right through our "win box" that I outlined earlier. The key here is getting the secondary to develop down southwest of the OBX like that, which means we don't need some once in 100 years type ridiculousness to get the storm to track up just off the coast and not that 150 miles OTS nonsense that always ends in tears west of the bay.

I'll take the 6" the NAM says I have OTG at 84 and call it a win. The NAM is always right right? I mean the best course of action is to just go with the NAM... someone verify this please.

To clarify...from where the NAM ends we still need a clean phase and capture but we dont need some crazy ridiculous tuck where the low has to track NW. A simple NNE movement of the low from there would take the track through "the box" I highlighted earlier with past storms that worked for us.

its very very likely just the NAM doing NAM things...but if...by some miracle, we were to reel this in, getting the secondary to develop down southwest of OBX is what we need. That changes the equation for us quite a bit.

There is a slight hint of a western extension of the MSLP, kind of a duel low structure, in response to the upper level energy.

The long range looks perfectly serviceable to me. -EPO. PNA goes negative but not nearly to the extent of December then shifts east some. Trough stays east of Hawaii and the trough in the western north PAC is encroaching on the western Aleutians which should continue to pump the EPO ridge. This is not an awful look. Unfortunately no help on the atlantic side but with a lot of cold around we could luck into some waves. This isnt a warm look...

Yea well I dunno if we blocked it out of our memory but before it was teasing NYC with 30" of snow it had a run that got like 10" of snow all the way back to me even and teased us with a significant storm...before shifting back east but still not far enough east even until the very end.