psuhoffman

The TPV splits and the lobe to the east exits and the main one dropping is still centered west of us creating a weakness for a storm to cut into. This is typical as a block develops or often takes one wave amplification to get the boundary SE of us. It’s after that we should be set up good. My biggest fear for the waves Feb 20+ are miller b type fails not pure cutters.

Looks good to me

Once inside 84 hours you know what the gem looks like from the rgem. The rgem is just a higher res version. They won’t be significantly different the rgem will just show details slightly better. Frankly I’m not even sure if the rgem is all the much higher res now that they have the hrdrps I think they stopped upgrading the rgem. The hrdrps is often somewhat off from the gem.

When is this starting? I don’t want to be out when the advisory level event gets started. Any idea when it’s going to get bad?

Also in March 2013 I was about to take a trip to Colorado with my GF and future ex wife and so I had other things to distract me. Ugh more sad memories. Eagles better win tomorrow. Im ready.

Are you talking about the early March 2013 storm? I got 6” here and it wasn’t supposed to be much more than that here actually, I was on the northern fringe. I think I was expecting like 8 so getting 6 wasn’t some big bust.

I remember for days it was south but the pattern suggested it should come north. Then it did 48 hours out but for some reason we assumed the trend was over which was foolish. It kept trending north and over the course of 36 hours went from a VA snowstorm to a northern New England one

If the AO gets to -4 then the trough ends up centered over us for 2-3 weeks (as all guidance and typical pattern progression indicates) kinda doubt we fail that way. The more likely fail mode would look like what almost happened in March 2018. We damn near wasted that beautiful block. Storm on Feb 30-March 1 over amped and didn’t have enough antecedent cold and we got a cold rain but it wasn’t warm. Mountains and New England got obliterated. I got like 1-2” up here at the end. Then miller B on the 7th just missed is to the northeast. We got 1-2” again and 1-2 feet NJ north! Then two waves in a row got suppressed south of us and gave minor snows to NC. I remember people arguing that couldn’t happen because it was March and I pointed out some of their biggest snows ever down there were actually March and with that kind of block ya it can. Then we finally got that big March 20 but from a week out that looked like a miller b miss also. Then the STJ wave became more dominant and finally. After the suppressed storm on the 15th which had teased us a week out with 12” model runs missed I made some super meltdown burn the world post in the panic room. Then the very next run the miller b for Boston changed to a big snow for us lol. But in a Nina that’s how we could fail. A mix of northern steam miller bs to our north and suppressed STJs to our south because in a Nina they are too weak to press into the block and gain latitude.

Man that storm sucked. I had just bought a new car and was cruising around thinking we were about to get a foot of snow the next day. Then the runs came in that night warmer but I was like “ok we still get like 6” that’s not bad” then the next morning it was just drizzle and the next run took it down to just a few inches. I was working at TGI Fridays in the Herndon worldgate that evening and it never changed over. Didn’t even rain heavy. Just cold light rain. The storm didn’t phase clean and the CCB never got going until New England. Just ugh. The reverse of Jan 2000 the year before. It’s as if we couldn’t even have something nice for one year! The snow gods had to take it back. ETA: that was a crappy year for me. I was home in VA for that winter because I was in a really bad ski accident up in Tremblant around New Years and had to withdrawal from PSU to rehab. Ended what was left of my soccer career lol. Had just broke up with my first love. Then that BS on a stick happened.

I already did

Weren’t you IADJi back in the day?

Good point about Jan 6. It had a split but one band did go north, so north it ended to way NW of us with a huge dead zone in between.

Extended GFS has a 6” snow mean Feb 21-28.

Nooo it’s over. It can’t happen …shhh it can hear you

If we can’t FCKN score with these 30 day temp/precip anomalies I dunno what to say

Weeklies are cold from Feb 16-March 15

Too many waves. Small changes impacting things more than if there was one feature to resolve. They’re all bouncing. The weird part was why they were all so “sure” for a time at day 6-10 but I think I solved that mastery earlier.

Too bad it’s over. Someone should tell the euro it’s not happening.

Euro AI would be a kick in the nuts lol. We get 2 strong waves during our best window. One Feb 21 just slightly over amplified and snow is PA line north. Then next one crushes NC lol

27 degrees. Cloudy. Is there a reason I’m under an advisory other than the 3 flakes I saw a couple hours ago? Honest question I’ve not paid any attention to this at all.

ya now we’re getting into stuff above my pay grade lol

Yes this 100%. It’s totally different having a mid latitude trough in the west that’s disconnected from the high latitudes than a full latitude trough that digs into the west. The former often associated with our best split flow regimes and the latter is the crap we’ve dealt with lately!

Yes concur

We used to get more snowstorms in “not very cold” North American patterns. Look at the Feb 1997 5-8” snow we got across the area as a perfect example. It was warm everywhere. But we had a bit of a ridge near Hudson Bay that helped get a decently energetic wave to take a perfect track and we got a 32-33 degree wet snowstorm. Would that even work today in this temperate base state?