psuhoffman

100% but shockingly when I ran the numbers Nina’s are actually slightly snowier on the whole around here than every cohort except modoki ninos. Enso neutral and east based ninos are even worse! But Nina’s feel so frustrating and I think it’s because so often Nina’s do feature periods of sustained cold but it’s mostly a NW flow NS dominant frustrating cold pattern. When we do get cold in other enso years it has a much higher frequency of producing snow. Just my 2 cents why Nina’s feel so damn frustrating

I feel it’s 10 months away and I still haven’t decided what’s for dinner tonight.

Imma check out for a bit. Im starting to sound like Ji so…. Im not mad or even frustrated, I think it’s just I’ve accepted it is what it is and others are still trying to stay positive and good for them! If things turn around I’ll get on board.

That’s even worse. That had me getting 9” 2 runs ago. Lol.

Agree with all this. Unfortunately

2

You’re giving valid reasons why it “could” pleasantly surprise. It’s possible. I hope I’m wrong and it surprises. Won’t be the first time I’ve been dead wrong about something. But I’m just not in a rush to set myself up for disappointment. This has all the same flaws and issues as other recent setups. Why convince myself it’s going to end any better when the most likely outcome is the same? I’m still gonna track. Why not set the bar low then be pleasantly surprised instead of investing and being frustrated when everything trends to exactly what climo in a positive NAO progressive pattern says is most likely.

Convergence of the members will mean the max stripe will increase at this range but the axis continues to trend south.

Just a reminder that unless the 18z euro shows an actual hit the 18z suite was a net negative. I know how this game goes. Euro shows a slight improvement over its pathetic 12z solution and suddenly some get sucked in and we see “it’s trending better 3+ days left”. But trends in one individual model are irrelevant. It’s the trend across guidance that matters. If the most amplified guidance is trending less amplified and the least amplified trends more that’s not a trend it’s just convergence. We needed the Gfs and Ukmet from last night to hold and everything else to trend to them. Instead we saw everything converge on a middle ground today. And that’s always the most likely outcome. But the middle ground is a bad result for us unfortunately.

We might be seeing the 100 hour convergence. It’s just not converging to the solution we want so some will cling to “it’s still x hours away”. It’s not done and every so often something crazy can happen. Nothing is certain. But as we cross the magic 100 hour threshold again it’s in the unlikely category. Whenever we need the most extreme solution of all guidance to be right, I don’t care which model that is, it’s not likely. 90% of the time the reality is towards the middle of the spread of permutations not an extreme. We keep rooting for the most amplified or least amplified options and that’s not a winning strategy.

Stop it. A 6” storm is fine. I’m not hunting an hecs. Just over 1-3” fringe events.

Yes but it did trend towards the Gfs. It’s developing over us v northwest at least. But until it converges on the consensus it’s hard to take much away from it.

High end for this type setup is probably a 6-10” storm but that’s if everything goes totally perfect and maxes potential.

Where’s that man ruler meme

I don’t feel I have some right to said storms. I don’t feel slighted and go off when they don’t happen. And I won’t kick a 1-3” snow out of bed. But I’m not wasting time tracking that either. If it happens fine. But the target is higher to me lol.

What are you talking about. I’m always in that mode. Only exception is around Xmas or if it’s a crazy cold pattern and I can build snowpack and keep it. Otherwise it’s go big or go home. I’m not really a big “snow” fan I’m a big snowstorm fan. Huge flakes and 3”/hour rates or bust. It doesn’t have to be huge totals. The squall where I got 3” in like 45 mins 2 years ago was awesome. But there has to be something dynamic about it. 3” of light snow that’s going to melt within a couple days does nothing for me. Back in 2015 I was annoying people because there was a 3-5” WAA wave storm 2 days out and I was rooting against it because there was a better setup to get a big amplified bomb right behind it but only if that WAA wave got squashed. I was 100% willing to kill a guaranteed 4” for like a 20% chance at a big storm. But I know those big storms are rare and unlikely any given threat and I’m not going to clog up the threads crying and complaining when they don’t happen. But it’s probably a good idea for people to know where my analysis is coming from. If someone else is just looking for 1-2” of snow they might get a more negative perception then is reality from my analysts since I’m only analyzing our chances of a flush hit.

@WinterWxLuvr if you want a snow of significance all im saying is hope in the next couple cycles we see guidance converge on a 6z Gfs type solution. Even the 12z is close enough that’s the kind of look 72-100 hours we can work with and get some minor adjustments to make it an event worth the time. But if the Gfs moves towards the euro and come tomorrow the majority of guidance had the snowfall southeast of 95…were pretty much cooked. People will say things like “it’s still 72 hours out plenty of time” to make themselves feel better but how often has that worked out?

Right now we haven’t seen stability or consensus reached. We’re right at 100 though so that suggests we’re about to see guidance converge. Once that happens…recent history suggests there will be noise and outlier runs each cycle but whatever the preponderance consensus is will be close to the final result. If in the next 24 hours we see the Gfs and euro converge on a snowfall targeting southeast of DC again…then that’s probably going to be the end result. Maybe we sneak in a couple inches. Maybe we get nothing. I’m not even that worried about it. I’m in this game hunting the flush hits so frankly if we fringe or get skunked isn’t much difference to me. Both leave me equally unsatisfied. I don’t complain. Storms miss. Oh well. Just saying I’m in this for the big storms. And if guidance says it’s a miss once inside 100 hours it’s very rarely going to become anything significant and I’m not really interested in praying for some miracle trend just to eek out another 2”

I thought the NAM at 84 looked like the NAM at 84

Depends what you call big changes. The fringe of a storm moving 50 miles isn’t big Imo. We know the edges and banding don’t get pinned until the very end. But we haven’t seen huge synoptic changes once inside about 100 hours. We’re right at that now. And maybe we’re seeing convergence. Ukmet lost it’s crazy amped up solution from 0z. Gfs also trended a little south. Icon and Euro trended towards the Gfs. Toss the ggem as the outlier. Maybe there is another curve in the next 24 hours but if not the consensus of all that guidance is likely close to the final outcome.

I wish people wouldn’t focus on those charts so much. The NAO chart was positive when there was a block right over Greenland back in December. Those things are calculated in ways that don’t always translate the same. That said he isn’t posting in good faith anyways he is a troll.

How many times do you intend to say this same thing in a slightly different way?

at a quick glance I didnt see much support for that in the EPS anymore. It lost that camp overnight mostly. Maybe its right here but the GGEM has been pretty awful lately. Oddly its overall scores are ok...kind of like the UKMET, its great at getting large scale hemispheric H5 anomalies but just flat out awful with synoptic details.

But it’s all or nothing. If the NS dominant solutions are correct there won’t be much front end because there is no moisture transport into the boundary.