psuhoffman

I usually avoid skiing presidents weekend but it’s one of the few weekends left I have the time to get somewhere of consequence. Problem is the weather is just as atrocious for snow over the entire lower 48. New England looks like a total ice fest with a rain/freeze. Even out west it’s pretty slim pickings with most resorts having only reported a few inches in the last 3 weeks and with a thaw last week conditions are pretty cruddy. Winter park seems to be the best option. They’ve been lucky with 13” in the last 7 days from several minor events and look to do best this week with mqybe a 5-8” snow mid week then cold after. Problem is I’ve avoided there on busy weekends thinking the close proximity to Denver must make it a mad house. @Bob Chill you probably know better. Would it be worth it or will lift lines be too crazy? I don’t mine 15-20 min waits but some of the 1 hour plus lines I’ve been hearing about in Colorado lately seem like it would be a miserable day.

Good forecast. But not sure in this case how useful current satellite/radar/obs are. There is no real synoptic feature we are tracking. No surface low of consequence. I’m not sure how we use current anything (including models) to pin down a very localized meso scale band of precip associated with a jet streak. I suppose it we really want to get deep in the weeds we could compare upper levels wind observations with guidance but I’m good. Frankly without the nwp this is the kind of discreet thing that probably went totally un forecasted 50 years ago. Not that missing a very localized 1-3” event was some kind of catastrophic problem. Somehow we survived.

This

The Gfs is way too broad with that band. It’s a function of its lack of resolution compared to some other guidance. Doesn’t mean it’s wrong wrt where it places it. But it won’t be as broad and uniform. The high res are right in their interpretation of what that will look like regardless of where it ends up. Placing a banding feature like this isn’t something that’s high confidence. In a more typical situation we don’t even try until nowcast. Unfortunately that’s the whole deal here so…

Frankly Im absolutely amazed at how good the guidance has gotten. The waves last week are a perfect example. Yea exactly where the ice would be shifted some because pinning down if the surface would be 30 v 35 from several days is crazy to expect. But the globals converged on the rain snow line running somewhere through southern VT from 7 days out then never wavered at all. I was paying attention because I was planning to ski up there. They absolutely nailed the major Synoptics of a progressive wave from 7 days! That would have been unheard of just 5-10 years ago.

We’re talking about two different things. Remember when I made that comment the GFS and UKMET were showing a 6-10” snowstorm across our area by digging a NS feature and partially phasing. It was a significant synoptic event. I said unfortunately given the pattern the more progressive solutions on other guidance was more likely. My point was we would likely see convergence on the correct synoptic solution around 100 hours and after that only minor adjustments. I think at one point I even said “if we want a SIGNIFICANT snowstorm we do not want to see the Gfs/uk to trend toward the euro around 100 because then that idea is likely off the table. I was talking about the 6-10” major synoptic event that involved some steam phasing and the multiple vort interactions they were showing at that time. IMO we did see that. The uk and Gfs lost the phasing idea and fell in line. And that is still the correct synoptic setup. The coastal is really a non factor. I know we can see minor changes inside 100. A lot of my 1-3” snows up here aren’t even on the radar until inside 48. I got 1” in December and it wasn’t even talked about and didn’t pop up on guidance until inside 24 hours. The thought it could was there earlier but nothing actually had it. But I’m not here to try to track some discreet vort that squeezes out an unexpected 2” or some jet streak induced meso band from medium or long range. Imo that’s kinda a waste of time. I think my comment 3 days ago was misunderstood. I don’t hate a 1-3” snow. I post pics of minor events here all the time. I just am not tracking it. Even in the absolute worst dreg years the lowest snow total we can get up here is about 10”. We will get several 1-3” storms every winter no matter how bad. They just happen. Often without much advance notice. And I enjoy them in the moment. But I’m not spending 10 days watching every model run for them. But that’s just me. I have no issue if others want to try to track a minor meso scale event! Go for it! If they have success they are better at this then I am! Can we see major synoptic changes inside 100. Sure. But it’s rare. Looking back over the last 7 years since the resolution upgrades started happening on the global systems, we just don’t see them go off on major tangents inside 100 much anymore. It’s like 10% or less. The Gfs was still prone to crazy runs in close but the recent upgrades seem to have helped it also. Yea we see one run each cycle go off sometime. A single uk run. A single Gfs. The ggem. And that trips some up sometimes. They see one outlier and think “here comes the trend”. But if you know to ignore the outlier fluke each cycle the consensus forecast for major synoptic features has been amazingly accurate inside 100 hours lately. I’m sure eventually there will be a huge bust again but the odds seem low enough that watching every run with baited breath in anticipation of said change seems pretty emotionally draining to me.

I think most knew it was in jest

I know…but I probably should have been more clear when I made my 100 hours comment (although I did say meso scale features aren’t resolved until inside 24) that I was talking about major synoptic events. A 1-3” snow can pop up out of almost nothing at the last minute so long as there is cold around. We get lucky with some discreet vort or in this case a jet enhanced banding feature disassociated from any significant synoptic event. But I don’t waste time tracking those from range. Partly because their not really my cup of tea but also because it’s not realistic to pin that stuff down at range. So it’s a waste of time Imo. Once the 100 hour guidance convergence made it clear a significant synoptic event was off the table I checked out for the most part and I’ve only made a few random comments mostly just to add levity (and I did go off on that one political post sorry @mappy) but I’ve tried to stay off to the side and allow those that wanted to track this their fun without my debbing. I’m paying attention now because we’re within 24 hours so it’s worth it (in my opinion) to look at these discreet features that could give some of us a minor snowfall. That and I’m stuck at home with a sick kid so why not.

You mean shifting an insignificant jet streak induced 1-3” band around a few miles. That is not a significant synoptic change. There isn’t even really a synoptic setup to shift as around 100 hours guidance converged on the fact the coastal would be a total non factor and the NS and SS would stay un phased. Now we’re just praying to get lucky with a meso scale feature to get a minor snowfall.

At least the 12k NAM finally remembered where my $!?&@$ ridge is. I was getting ready to take it out behind the woodshed.

@powderfreak I’m getting very nervous for spring skiing in Vermont this year. Late March and April is my favorite time to hit up Sugarbush Stowe and sugarloaf when things soften up and you can usually even get another powder weekend in somewhere. But the base is pathetic this year for this time of year. And I see a lot of warm and rain in the next 1-2 weeks. Do you share my concern or historically do they turn it around when in this situation. Just seems to be getting late to need to build base. Sugarbush and Killington were down to dirt and rock all over on their natural terrain last weekend.

I’m shocked

The whole Gfs king thing was always overdone. It nailed one storm. Then people gave it credit when it simply wasn’t any worse than other globals on the next couple. Then it was awful a couple times. Different models will take turns with a hot hand in a specific pattern. But over the long run the euro is still best. It was just struggling for a time with a fast flow NS pattern. That said I am still impressed with the Gfs upgrade. It’s errors now are a lot less significant that in the past. But the best method still remains a Gfs euro blend that accounts for the likely bias of each. Some compromise ends up correct most of the time. I mean I didn’t expect the 8” it gave me last run but I’m supposed to be ok with the .04 it gives me this run just because it snows? This run was a pretty significant step towards the SE and consensus of the better guidance which was totally expected.

Crossing the border is iffy right now

There is a system coming through the west next week but its marginal if its going to drop enough snow to be worth a trip out there. Mammoth CA might get a decent dump middle of next week. It looks pretty bare elsewhere.

Outside 48 hours better off just looking at the euro, Gfs and EPS GEFS then simply adjusting for bias and seasonal and pattern norms. Everything else just adds noise.

Yea I’m way past any interest in grasping at straws and praying some low probability threat magically trends better inside 72 hours. The payoff on that is too low. All you get is frustration 90% of the time.

I learned skiing the east and a lot of ice. And even when conditions are good in the east you will hit a wind blasted patch of ice and need to know how to use your edges. But I’ve reached a point where I no longer feel the need to prove myself and it’s just not that much fun. Plus I scaled back and only have a pair of atomic access light weight fat all terrain skis. They don’t catch an edge very well. Too light and too wide. So I agree with the statement above wrt skill but I want to have a good time not prove to random spectators how good I am.

I’m getting very concerned for the viability of spring skiing. March into early April is some of the best in northern New England. That’s my favorite time to hit up sugarbush, sugarloaf, Stowe and Wildcat. But their base is pathetic. Last weekend it was down to dirt and rock between the moguls at sugarbush and Killington. I got into a really dicey spot on vertigo head wall as half way down on the steepest spot there was no snow for a good 15 feet. Had to sideslide into the woods and make some tight turns to get out of that jam. If they don’t get at least several more feet they won’t last long at all once it warms. Worst part is out west is awful too. East had no snow until Jan then was cold but kinda dry. The west has been warm and dry! This spring season is at risk of being an epic fail.

Gfs overestimating the cold could also be overestimating the energy along the baroclinic boundary. A warmer boundary doesn’t necessarily mean west/wet.

I’m 10 times more upset that all guidance is showing a huge rainstorm followed by a hard freeze all the way to the arctic circle destroying the surface at every ski resort right better Presidents’ Day weekend. Even out west is a mess where they’ve had little snow in a month. I can’t even find a damn place to ski that will have powder anywhere in the lower 48 next weekend.

This is going well

That’s somewhat true. But Nina’s can produce a big storm. 1996, 2000, 2006 and 2011 all had a MECS or bigger storm. I think it’s a combo of 2 things. We spend a larger % of many Nina’s in cold patterns. Ninas are actually the coldest cohort other than modoki ninos. Yes the return on that cold is less. It’s a lot of tease with little payoff. And secondly it’s been a long time since 1996. We haven’t had a big Nina recently. 2014 was a big neutral. 2010 and 2015 were big ninos. It’s been 26 years since we had a blockbuster Nina year. And frankly all years other than those rare blockbusters are pretty bad here. That’s our climo. A few good years a decade and otherwise a lot of crap. Nina’s have all been in the lot of crap category.

If you sit at the poker table long enough you can start to predict the players next move.