psuhoffman

We’ve acknowledged we’re losing some marginal snow events (which is why our mean is falling) due to climate change. But I think that extends even more drastically to ice events. They are all marginal by nature, happening along a narrow scope of conditions where the boundary layer is just cold enough despite warmth above. And the boundary layer is the most affected by warning and especially warning due to increased UHI effects which extend well beyond metro areas now in a lesser but still real way. I’m not saying ice storms are impossible now but I think they are a lot harder to come by here than 20 years ago. I’ve seen a few setups Ute last 5 years that I thought synoptically should support icing that ended up 35 degree rain.

Fixed

@CAPE not upset just saying I’m not excited by another event where the best case scenario is probably another minor event here. But I’m taking the kids up to Killington this weekend and they are getting 10”+ later this week so I’m good. Way more excited about that than disappointed by another fail here.

I guess location matters. The most amped run we had was like .25 qpf up here and you talk about that like it was likely something we can’t get back too. So sorry if I’m lacking enthusiasm for something that the best run of any model ever showed still wasn’t amplified enough to be anything more than another fringe nuisance event for my location.

And even in those best runs it was kinda a pathetic weak sauce system. 4/10ths qpf with temps near freezing in late Feb isn’t gonna do much damage. And you’re talking about that like it’s some high water mark we can’t get back too. Lol

We need to time up last years Atlantic pattern with this years pac pattern. I suppose a Nino would help increase the odds, at least it can’t hurt. But our biggest problem since 2016 is that both the pac and Atlantic long term base states are opposite of what we want. There is variance but when both are spending 75% of the time in a bad look it gets really difficult to time them both up. And for all the attempts to simplify things to one factor (it’s enso, cold, precip, pac, Atlantic) truth is we need some help from both if we want to get a big winter which if we’re being honest is what most in here are hunting for.

I’m not sure enso drives the bus the same way anymore. The last Nino behaved like a Nina. Last winter and this didn’t really behave like canonical Nina’s either. There was plenty of stj this year and the pac pattern was almost dead opposite a typical Nina. If we had any Atlantic help at all I think we would have done very well. Nina wasn’t our biggest problem a raging positive NAO was.

The tpv didn’t get displaced where we want. This pattern isn’t awful. We could luck into something. This threat isn’t dead. But for much of the last 5 years some have wanted the pac to cooperate and questioned the importance of the Atlantic. Well…this is what a good pac bad Atlantic looks like. It’s just as frustrating.

If the thermal boundary is north of us and it’s 50 we have zero chance of snow no matter how wet it is. We need both a cold pattern AND precip. They are both equally necessary to get snow. This isn’t even a debatable thing. If it’s warm it can’t snow. If it’s dry it can’t snow.

You need BOTH

pretty good day. I love the southwest

I definitely think the kind of progressive boundary waves we sometimes need in a non blocking pattern can be more juiced due to enhanced baroclinicity in March. At the same time, these boundary waves can also end up further north without blocking so its a double edge sword. But in general yes I do think there is an elevated risk for anomalous events in March compared to mid winter. That said...in recent years getting significant precip events along the boundary hasn't been a big issue. Even this year...its not like there were no big precip events during the cold period, they just didn't hit us. The one storm cut inland another missed us to the east, and another hit to our north. But all 3 were very significant precip producers.

Just to add to these posts... we've said over and over how 2014 and 2015 were anomalous wrt snowfall in a purely pacific driven regime...and the reason was oddities that worked out in our favor with the positioning of the TPV over N. America. In 2014 it was often displaced to our NW in a way that lined up progressive waves to come at us from the southwest over and over and over again. In 2015, even more oddly, it got displaced to our northeast in a way that mimicked -NAO blocking in terms of creating confluence to our north from the compressed flow under the TPV there. Same outcome from a completely opposite feature! We've seen this winter that just having the pacific aligned without any help elsewhere can be extremely frustrating. It's cold, it does usually snow some...but it feels underwhelming considering all the cold and amount of tracking. What interests me with this coming pattern is the possibility that we get that weirdly displaced TPV feature into southeast Canada. But as WxUSAF said that is still a bit of a wildcard, but key to getting a favorable storm track this go around. It doesn't shock me the pacific is reloading into the same basic pattern since that is clearly this winter's base state....go figure we needed a la nina to break the la nina pac base state LOL! But if we do in fact get a displaced TPV to our north this next pattern recycle offers more potential than the last few.

Sometimes when you’re walking down the street and you see something off…it’s better to just keep walking.

Yup that went exactly how I expected.

Yes, the specific ridge I’m on is Dug Hill. I’m at about 1050 ft just north of Manchester and south of the PA line. I’m about a mile from the highest point on Parrs Ridge and the highest point in MD east of the Appalachian Trail.

Ok but then factor in the fact your avg snow on blacktop is likely only 60% of your actual avg into you’re expectations. He has been in the same screw zone as Maestro and other parts of northeast Md. And I’m very familiar with his location, he is in a horrible local screw zone within the larger screw zone.

Pattern looks promising for March. I’d like to see some blocking but boundary waves can be dynamic in march and that look should put the boundary near us. Not going to waste more time though until it’s inside range. But the warmup might only be a temporary relaxation not a permanent breakdown.

Thank god we don’t measure snow on the street! Seriously though of all your snow pessimism angles we’ve discussed this is the one I get the least. It’s very very normal for places on the coastal plane in warm micro climate locations as we’ve discussed, to have way less snow on roads. Even up here if I measured snow on my street my avg snowfall would be like 25” instead of 40”. You act like snow that doesn’t stick in roads doesn’t count.

You’re thinking of March 2017

It would take something dynamic. But most March events do. March 2014 and 2015 was an extreme anomaly. Usually we need to get bombed with a perfect track or upper level pass.

There was a story where a neighbor picked up his kid who was friends with Snyders and said “thanks Dan” and he corrected him with “it’s Mr Snyder”. I know that’s stupid but…who does that?

We got some snow from that. Not sure how DC did but it was a general 2-4” across MD.

Right now I’m just steamed some town 8 miles northeast of me reported 5 and I only have 4.5! I think I’m gonna stew over that all day!!!! seriously though I don’t dislike these minor events. Even up here they make up the majority of my snowfalls. But it’s not what I like to track. Like @Bob Chill said, the payoff on tracking some meso scale 50 mile wide band of snow from long range is awful. You can’t pin these small scale local events down at any range. It was pure luck it ended up over me. What wasn’t pure luck was that I got 4-5” instead of 1-3” because of my elevation. I can max out these little things. But Imo it’s a waste of time to track them from distance. I start paying attention when they get inside 24 hours. Big synoptic events I’ll track at range. Both because you have a slightly better chance of pinning them down at range and the payoff is bigger. But even up here I know on average I only get a couple 8”+ storms a year. I don’t get mad when they don’t happen. I’m not complaining over small snows. Just not interested in spending hours a day tracking them.