psuhoffman

We know his bias but he isn’t necessarily wrong. You can come up with some less hostile qbo correlations but it requires drilling down to a level of specificity where you create a sample too small to glean meaningful conclusions Imo. That said we don’t know for certainty what reaction every combination of every factor will illicit. There is still plenty of uncertainty and ambiguity in seasonal forecasting. There is always hope. But the current nina qbo combo isn’t a reason to celebrate.

You’re right. My bad. I am not sure how that ended up in there. Remove that. So the range is 2”-13.6”.

I don't think its luck...there is a repetitive trend during Nina's that when it does get cold there are progressive waves that seem to have a better chance the further east you are in our region. On top of that there tend to be a lot of miller b storms due to the lack of a strong STJ and those, while not usually prolific, do sometimes clip our eastern regions a bit as well. Signs of this repetitive pattern have shown up at times in 2009, 2011, 2017, 2018, and 2022. I think there is enough evidence, and Nina snowfall anomaly maps show this as well, that the immediate 95 corridor (where most live!) is the absolute snowfall minimum in a nina. Further west tends to get a bit more snow from temperature dependent systems and further east has a better chance of getting clipped by the progressive waves and miller b's. DC and Baltimore are in the exact worst location and most likely to get screwed. I think that's climo not bad luck. ETA: simply put...the further west you can go before getting any elevation advantages...the worse off you are in a progressive pattern.

I think some are making this more complicated than perhaps it has to be. It is true that prior to 2000 there were plenty of healthy snowfall years in and around DC due to some minor factors going our way in otherwise unfavorable enso state. But since 2000 that just hasn't been true anymore. Since 2000 these are all the DC snowfall totals in -enso years and neutral years following a nina year (which tend to mimic nina results) 3.2", 13.6", 4.9", 7.5", 10.1", 2.0", 3.1", 3.4", 7.8", 0.6", 5.4", 13.2". The avg is 6" and the range is 0.6" to 13.6". Every single season was below avg. The truth is we have only done well in either a nino or a neutral year NOT following a nina. So...it seems unless we are praying for some super anomalous fluke a reasonable expectation is "below avg" with a range somewhere between 1" and 13". I don't think we really are likely to get much benefit from minor positive drivers in the pattern anymore...it seems we now need the major base states to all line up in our favor to get a snowy winter in and around DC. If you live in the western and northern highlands of our regions this does not pertain to you...those areas can still manage a healthy snowfall total in less favorable seasons.

The hemispheric energies aren’t aligned with the geomagnetic tilt.

Yes but those years weren’t in the analog set I was talking about. 2000/01 and 2001/02 and 2012/13 were and all were awful DC snowfall years.

I’m not saying it won’t snow at all. Actually….I never would say that. Because even in the worst years USUALLY we luck into at least one decent snowfall somewhere. The handful of near shutout years took a combo of awful pattern and bad luck. Even those worst years will have some marginal threats and one might hit. So even if we were staring something like that in the face I still wouldn’t predict a shut out. Personally I think trying to differentiate between a 10” or 6” or 2” snow winter in DC is kinda a waste of time. Adjust those totals accordingly to fit your location. For me I don’t bother trying to differentiate between a 25”, 18” or 12” winter. There is too much fluke involved in snow totals. A 10” winter in DC could be from a colder year with a decent base state pattern that just got unlucky with synoptic details. Or it could be a horrible pattern year where we got lucky once or twice! An under 5” year takes an awful pattern but also bad luck. It’s going to drive you mad trying to predict that specific. All I try to do is identify if it’s going to be a year we likely end up above normal, near normal, or below. Once I decide it’s likely below I’m not wasting my time on if it ends up 9” or 3”. Frankly they are all bad to me so whatever. I don’t get depressed over it. I find other things to do. Track the chances at a fluke. Travel to see snow. Being a skier helps! But I’m not obsessing over whether DC gets 3” or 9”. And I’m not obsessing over whether I get 15” or 25” (kinda the equivalent). When I do seasonal I’m hunting for those 25% of actual snowy winters. Once I realize this probably ain’t one…the rest are all some degree of suck so whatever. Not saying anyone else should agree with this. And I do think it’s valuable to try to differentiate more with temperatures just not with snow. Just explaining my crazy mindset.

But yet almost every one of those years DC had very little or no snow in Dec and most went on to be pretty awful as a whole. Agaun this is why I find it hard to be optimistic. No matter how you dice it up, sort analogs, change what factors will be dominant…I’ve yet to see any any analog set that includes snowy winters down here. There are reasons to be optimistic in places north of 40. This doesn’t look like a wall to wall torch everywhere winter. But we usually are on the outside watching others celebrate in those type years. I’ll duck and cover now. Deb out.

Yea and that December was a torch which is the opposite of what the person who compiled that analog set was implying. And a “set” of 1 is pretty useless Imo. Just saying I wouldn’t weight that much at all based on the variance of the entire set and limited enso comps.

Pretty useless set when some of those Decembers were polar opposites in terms of pattern.

it wouldn’t shock me. Even when I predict below avg snow I never think that means it’s a lock. Just more likely than not. Weirder things have and will happen.

That’s why I’m pretty low on my expectations. Not because I think this is some 2002/2012/2020 blowtorch non winter. But if you look at even the colder comp cold enso years and westerly QBO years they were pretty bad down here. Even the ones that were snowy Philly north. They just don’t work here 90% of the time. One reason to always hold out hope here though is 1999/2000. I bring that year up a lot. 90% of that winter every factor was all wrong. But we got a 2 week decent (it honestly wasn’t even great) pattern and got lucky. Hit on 3 straight storms. Most remember that as a good year but it was dreadful in terms of the pattern and easily could have been a total dreg year like 2002 with a little less luck. 2001/2002 on the other hand had a decent pattern much of Dec and early Jan but we had bad luck, missed one storm south another cut just inland and a third hit but was weak and didn’t maximize potential. Those 2 years could easily have been flipped with some slightly different luck. And you can’t predict that.

This is Europe centered and the mean is misleading since it’s skewed by different ENSO years but there is something useful to be gleaned. These years featured a pretty good December -NAO. But other than the Nino years they mostly didn’t do much good for our area. The cold enso years were pretty low on snow. Positive though most did feature some snow so the idea it will likely snow some this year is supported. But this is why I’m skeptical of focusing on a front loaded winter. More often than not we waste even a good pattern before Xmas. I know the thought of holiday period snow is nice, I like that too, but ideally we really want our best patterns to line up in January and February if we want some confidence we benefit from it.

Does it matter? You can keep waiting for a change or you can make the change.

Just keep in mind over the years I’ve busted high more than low with my seasonal forecasts. The last time I was taking heat for being a huge deb the whole sub ended up with single digit snow and many places got a total goose egg. I truly honestly hope this time it blows up in my fave and we get buried and you all can make fun of me.

You can dream. And when you wake up you can enjoy your 55 degree Xmas!

You’re really trying to drive @Maestrobjwacrazy aren’t ya! II hope I’m wrong about this but I felt some if the ancillary indexes were more conflicted the last couple years. The Nina was more favorably centered. 2 years ago solar was more favorable. The QBO Nina combo analogs werent awful. The North Atlantic sst wasn’t as hostile either. I wasn’t optimistic but I saw some reasons to think “maybe”. This year Im struggling to see much. But one thing to hold out hope is maybe historical expectations aren’t valid anymore. I wouldn’t be totally shocked if things turn out better. I never gave high confidence in any long range forecast. Just not expecting it.

How many times in recorded history has that happened?

It very likely will snow some. And I will track it and enjoy the hell out of it! And maybe we get a rare fluke and it turns out better despite all evidence. Just saying I am shaking my head at the idea we can have a year where the enso, N pac, high latitudes and Atlantic are all wrong and it somehow is going to just be ok. That hasn’t been my experience around here. That’s all. My seasonal forecasts absolutely suck so who cares. I’m probably wrong and DC gets 30”!

I keep reading comments about how the Atlantic and pacific are going to suck but…and all I keep thinking is “have people forgotten just how hard it is to get snow around here”. Sometimes even when almost everything is perfect we can’t get snow. But somehow this year everything imaginable is going to be against us but it’s going to be fine.

So just in time to ruin our modoki Nino lol.

And yet all 3 were still below avg snow in DC and Baltimore! @40/70 BenchmarkYour posts are awesome and I like your analysis and agree with most of it. I’ve not said I expect a complete North American fail 2002/2008/2012/2020 type winter. But where I am skeptical of much success here, and I do wonder if you realize just how frustratingly maddeningly difficult it can be to get snow down here…is the fact that even most of the “colder” Nina years like 2009, 2018 and 2011 were pretty awful snowfall years in DC! Even most cold enso neutral years like 1994 were below avg snowfall in DC! For us to get a decent snowfall season in DC/Balt where the majority of this sub resides, it typically takes either a Nino, or a super lucky convergence of most other factors being in our favor. In the last decade we’ve had periods with a good pac or good NAO and it did nothing for DC at all Additionally when avg snow is only 13.7”…Im also not sure how some of the statements like “it’s probably going to be below avg but not awful” even jives up with reality? How do you have a below avg snowfall season in a place where avg is barely above single digits and not have it be “awful”. Before you say I am being unrealistic…I am not using my standard. I am going off the fact that if we go 2 weeks without snow the winter thread in here becomes flooded with whining and complaints. I’m not sure such a thing as a “below avg but not awful” snowfall year can exist by the standards I see in here. So I do agree there are likely to be some periods of cold and some snow! But what that typically looks like in DC in a year with a likely predominant +NAO -PNA and a -enso is usually ~ 6-10”. And I’ve experienced a ton of exactly those type winters in the 20 years I’ve been on weather forums and from experience the general tone in here as that kind of winter plays out is always “this is awful”. So I don’t think my disagreement is necessarily with the forecast just with the perception we can have a below avg snow year and have the perception not be that it was bad.

Everyone is still saying the same things. But some aren’t being jackasses about it because they got called out.

Ok, have it your way. Maybe this is why we have like 5 people who contribute actual substantive posts in here anymore when we used to have like 20! I appreciate good analysis and scientific based forecasts even if they aren’t the outcome I would prefer. But I guess this isn’t the place for that. Enjoy your silence.

It wasn’t personal. Your post was just the latest of that kind so it’s the one that got quoted. Pretty much anyone who is making a legit science based prediction is going to say it looks bleak because it does. Everyone is entitled to their own preferences and opinions as @leesburg 04says, but as much as the “it’s probably gonna suck” posts bother some the litany of “I wish people would stop being debs” post irk me when all they are doing is making honest legit observations. The last thing I want is people to feel they can’t be honest because they will be told it’s too depressing. If someone can’t emotionally handle an honest good faith forecast or observation that’s not the fault of the forecaster. I get annoyed during winter when the thread gets filled with substance less whining and woe is me crap. It is what it is. But now some are having problems with legit posts just because they all say the obvious thing which is things don’t look good for a lot of snow this winter right now.