psuhoffman

But the eps is an improvement over the last run.

They have higher expectations and it hasn’t snowed much at all yet in many places.

The GFS is weaker with the vortex in western Canada. That allows it to split and some of it to slide east. All other guidance is much stronger and that allows it to resist the flow, cut off, and just spin there.

It actually diverges by hr 54, believe it or not. The key seems to be the strength of the first SW that amplified around the TPV in western Canada. Both camps do a fujiwara dance between several features rotating around that TPV. But on the Icon/CMC/Euro/Ukmet the initial amplification around 54 hours is much stronger and the whole thing remains consolidated and just kinda spins in place. That means when the next piece of energy comes in (what becomes the storm) everything is anchored in western Canada and it dives in way too far west. The GFS and some previous runs of the euro and Cmc were weaker with the initial amplification in western Canada. That seems to allow the TPV to be impacted by the flow under the stronger vortex to the north and slide east, not remain anchored. It seems it simply comes down to how strongly the vortex that drops into south western Canada in about 48 hours is. Too strong and it resists the flow, gets stuck and the next lobe dives into the west. Weaker and it slides east and sets up a possible eastern storm.

It’s kinda funny I haven’t even looked at anything past 90 hours yet. I’ve seen enough posts to know it goes on to show a snowstorm but I’m still parsing the 72-90 hour panels and comparing with the euro to try to figure out what’s causing the divergence and see if I can ascertain which progression is more likely. The details “after” are less important since they won’t be correct at that range anyways. But one progression gives us a legit chance at a big snow and the other does not. So figuring that out is all I care about right now. Wish I knew the biases and tendencies of the new GFS. Dumping too much energy into the west is an old school euro bias but I don’t know if that’s true anymore either.

Forgot to add that the major differences start relatively early, I could notice by day 3-4 that it was different from the euro and icon. So this “war” probably ends relatively soon as one camp is going to have to figure it out pretty soon.

The Gfs is still bringing the tpv east under the block and only dropping a piece in behind. The details may or may not work out but it at least still has a progression that puts us in the game. The TPV dropping wholly into the west is a game over scenario for anything other than a cool arctic front type deal.

No one extrapolated the NAM

The key is what the TPV does. Icon is back to the euro idea of 48 hours ago dropping the whole thing into the west. That pumps a ridge that links with the “block” creating just a full latitude ridge in the east. The solution we want is the tpv to side under the block and just a piece to drop in behind.

Yes but upon further inspection the trend toward a more northern stream dominant system continued. That’s a big problem for us. We know how a northern stream dominant miller b ends for us. 24 hours ago the trend was towards more of a hybrid. If this ends up northern stream dominant history suggests we end up on the losing side. More than any other feature the trend I want to see if back towards less northern stream dominant and more STJ interaction. It’s been going the wrong way recent runs. Still plenty of time for more changes.

Minor differences for that range but it’s more amplified and digging slightly further SW at 144 v 0z. I’d take it as a slight improvement.

It would be nice to get a big early season hit because I’ve noticed the forum is a lot less volatile and reactionary in seasons where the snow fix has already been satiated somewhat.

Icon has no western ridge Bigger issue is it retrogrades the block too far NW allowing the system to slide east instead of digging.

It outperforms any one model at shorter ranges. I have no idea what or how it calculates at that range. An average of wildly divergent solutions isn’t that useful.

If we can get it inside 5 days sure. But we’re way too far out at this point. I wouldn’t mind doing just a general pattern overview chat at some point either though. I’ll be honest though I don’t have as much time as I used too. So if I’m ever unable to host and anyone else wants to take over I’m great with that. But I’ll try to fit them in when warranted.

Mdecoy hacked your account

The dumb angle is always a problem.

Details like the double barrel thing are useless at this range. From a pattern sense, west NAO block, 50/50, western ridge, TPV under the block that rotates a lobe and dives down to our SW, yea this setup resembles lots of our big snowstorms. But also a lot of close misses. It’s similar to December 2009. But it’s also similar to December 2010! I posted the h5 of 6 storms once and 3 were HECS and 3 were total busts and you couldn’t tell the difference. The pattern is great. We need luck with the details now.

Feb 14 2014

I think some don’t realize that due to time dispersion at that range any low signature will be diffuse. Also often biased east because of outlier members that have a weaker solution along with the fact the low generally gets deeper as it progresses east. That’s a hell of a signature for that range. If it was 3 days away looking like that then we can worry.

Worth noting that. That’s all.

I almost said something then figured Naw let ‘em squirm a little.

@dtk or anyone else…did they ever update the gefs to be run off the new operational or is it still the old gefs?

It does look VERY euro like but a little less strung out and more dominant with the “second secondary” so a little better result. The double barrel structure still limits a top end outcome a bit but no one (except one persons) would complain. I still kinda doubt it ends up that way. Maybe. It could. But I’ve seen this look a lot at range and 90% of the time it ends up a more consolidated system when we’re talking about this kind of upper level feature involved.

Nice to meet you. I found this screen name laying on the ground discarded. Figured I’d pick it up and try it out. What’s up.