psuhoffman

did you miss the LAST run where it gave us NOTHING! why are you setting the bar at some obsolete run 4 cycles ago? And frankly this run gives me more snow than that one did...it was a bomb for the coastal areas SE of 95 but it wasn't THAT good for places NW of 95. This run was the most widespread snowstorm its shown on any run for our whole region and other then one bomb solution 24 hours ago a huge improvement over the last run which is what we usually compare a model to.

I keep an eye on other areas for skiing purposes...and to give you an example for a week the ICON was way SE of most other guidance with the storm this weekend up in New England, along with the Euro AI BTW...showing the storm redeveloping off the coast v cutting up into upstate NY, showing the rain snow line never getting into VT when other guidance had it getting all the way into northern VT almost to Canada. Guess which models won and the ICON finally caved last night on that...now has the storm cutting with the mix getting into northern VT. You have to apply the models typical bias to their solutions when judging what is or isn't a "good" run. It's different if the euro which is the most amplified model typically is weak and progressive. We want to see the euro cranking up some 970 monster. The ICON...its find if its weaker since thats its typical error.

Ya'll are funny, that was an ICON version of an MECS considering how progressive and dry it typically is...and ya'll calling it a scraper

I am NOT the arbiter of what others should want or be happy with... just for me so long as I get enough snow to feel like it was a "big storm" (usually thats around 8" or so) while obviously I want to be the jack and it stings a little if somewhere else gets a crap ton more...it doesn't ruin the storm totally the way getting some 1-3" fringe does. At least it feels like I got a legit storm even if its 10" and not 20" or whatever. A couple of those 2021 storms I got like 10" or 12" and not too far away got 30" and yea it stung a tiny bit but I enjoyed the storms and was happy once I got over not getting the crazy stupid totals and let it go and accepted I was getting a very good MECS level snow and not a HECS.

I mean there is a difference between getting 8” and being upset someone else got 12” and getting 3” when others got 8-12”. I’m fine with not being the jack so long as I get into the “meat” of the storm and not another fringe

That’s exactly why I wanted an amplified pattern

@Terpeast isn’t allowed to stay up for the euro ever again

It's not a HECS but it is a KU

That is normal in a nina, we get SECY/MECS and northeast of us gets HECS. If that happens have to just focus on what we get and not cry about Boston

Its 6-10" for us... I think in a nina we have to be ok with that and not worry about "but NYC"

GFS is fine where it is now...its latched onto the correct progression up top and now has a similar storm to the UK/GGEM/Euro and its about getting the location and strength nailed down. And its close enough we aren't out of it for the jack either...

Maybe I don't like the fact we've lost about 20% of what was already a pretty pathetic snow climo... I'm not celebrating the fact we still have the remaining 80%...guess I'm a glass half empty kinda guy on this but I don't celebrate that we still get something we already had...I lament that we lost something we used to have

I never thought we would fail THAT way...but now that guidance is on the same page with that we need to see how they converge on a solution. Right now just SE of us is the consensus and I want that to change in the next 24 hours

If we get a full latitude trough in the east that is actually colder than a high latitude block with a trough under it.

no one has said we "lots the ability" but cold snowy patters are happening less. Less not never. We need a hit, no moral victories here

It's done that a few times now with waves WAY to our NW showing frozen when the euro had NOTHING and it of course was wrong each time. I don't even pay it any attention in those setups anymore unless the euro agrees.

The biggest issue I see is the pattern west of the trough...the ridge axis is a little too far west and we don't have a trough south of AK which is typically what causes storms to amplify into the east. Chuck, I know we lose the block...but with the MJO into 8 and the pac jet extending we should get a chance for an amplification into the east after this.

If you flipped all the heights it would be a HORRIBLE pattern. I know numerically its a +NAO but NOBODY except you categorizes the NAO that way. NOBODY

I mean it does produce a storm, it drops 10" of snow on southeast VA...it just doesn't hit us... but looking at that the difference between a hit for us and VA is pretty small when looking at the H5 pattern a couple days before. You're talking about details pretty minor that determine where the northern edge ends up being on a storm

if it was easy we would get a MECS storm more often and not just a couple times a decade.

if that peice over the Dakotas phases in fully its a go...

If the EPS looks like that tonight then its game on... but right now we are being teased each run with just enough guidance to make us think maybe...but we've yet to have a run where the majority consensus was a hit. It's close...real real close.

yea I agree with this... if we arent seeing a hit on guidance Saturday...we will be within the range where major changes have not been happening...its been kinda amazing how locked in guidance has become once inside 100 hours...people focus on the relatively minor changes like a 30 mile shift here or there because often we are on the edges either of the precip or rain snow line and those shifts matter to our ground truth...but the fact it only changed that much in 5 days often is crazy compared to the past when storms would go from a NC hit to a NYC to Boston hit in that time normally. And before people say..."how can you jump ship now" I'm not but I have to be real, yea I liked this period and still do and its a great pattern...but even in a great pattern we can miss a storm like this by a little bit...its amazing its going to be this close...it all came together almost perfectly...but if we get to Saturday its time to admit if its just not 100% right for our location to get a hit and move on to the next wave. There will be more threats I think in this pattern.

not really...pull up the GFS and compare them...the GFS is way off on its own world wrt the NS H5 look...all stretched out over the top... BUT... I am in the "it wasn't a great trend" camp. Those saying its more amplified are correct, however, its also more east and that outweighs this for our purposes because we are the furthest west of all the east coast regions trying to get a storm here...we have the least amount of time to waste as the wave progresses east before it bombs...it doesn't matter if its more amplified if it starts to bomb and gets captured too late...then its the typical congrats beaches and NYC to Boston we are used to in a nina. But its a minor thing...it can flip back at 0z it wasn't some huge move that had me like OH NO.