psuhoffman

if that peice over the Dakotas phases in fully its a go...

If the EPS looks like that tonight then its game on... but right now we are being teased each run with just enough guidance to make us think maybe...but we've yet to have a run where the majority consensus was a hit. It's close...real real close.

yea I agree with this... if we arent seeing a hit on guidance Saturday...we will be within the range where major changes have not been happening...its been kinda amazing how locked in guidance has become once inside 100 hours...people focus on the relatively minor changes like a 30 mile shift here or there because often we are on the edges either of the precip or rain snow line and those shifts matter to our ground truth...but the fact it only changed that much in 5 days often is crazy compared to the past when storms would go from a NC hit to a NYC to Boston hit in that time normally. And before people say..."how can you jump ship now" I'm not but I have to be real, yea I liked this period and still do and its a great pattern...but even in a great pattern we can miss a storm like this by a little bit...its amazing its going to be this close...it all came together almost perfectly...but if we get to Saturday its time to admit if its just not 100% right for our location to get a hit and move on to the next wave. There will be more threats I think in this pattern.

not really...pull up the GFS and compare them...the GFS is way off on its own world wrt the NS H5 look...all stretched out over the top... BUT... I am in the "it wasn't a great trend" camp. Those saying its more amplified are correct, however, its also more east and that outweighs this for our purposes because we are the furthest west of all the east coast regions trying to get a storm here...we have the least amount of time to waste as the wave progresses east before it bombs...it doesn't matter if its more amplified if it starts to bomb and gets captured too late...then its the typical congrats beaches and NYC to Boston we are used to in a nina. But its a minor thing...it can flip back at 0z it wasn't some huge move that had me like OH NO.

it was too far southeast and weak with the storm this weekend, finally caved at 12z and jumped way NW in line with other guidance. We will see...

the flow is too suppressive overall for a quick relatively weak STJ wave to get it done...we need it to slow down and phase with that trailing NS TPV lobe tail. That's the path. It's worked before, Dec 2009 was that kind of progression. This wouldn't have that kind of upside I don't think but talking about storm type. The upside on a faster disconnected unphased wave is pretty low...probably 3-6" max and I'm willing to kick that in hopes of a big dog. It's not like we didn't get any snow this season...lets go big or go home here.

It just changed its timing on the STj wave by 24 hours, more in line with other guidance there, but it’s all over the place with the NS H5 features. Until it gets a grip and stabilizes for a few runs with one solution I’m not going to sweat the gfs much. I’d be way more upset of the other guidance which has been more consistent went that way

Hope it paces itself

It was tight

Are those the dangerous ones?

Tucked

Yea Vail owned mountains (epic pass) are a mess. People at Park City over new years weekend were hiking back up the mountain the lift line was so long. They under staff, didn’t use the pass $ to make upgrades the way Ikon mountains have, then started a labor fight with their workers for refusing some modest demands. They’re just a mess. Shame some great resorts being mismanaged. I love Breckenridge and Stowe but won’t ski them again until major changes happen. Then west south of Utah is also having a crappy snow year. Taos in NM has like 70” total right now. This makes the issue worse by limiting terrain they can open. I was thinking of a trip there but not this year. Just going to hit up VT and ME a couple times in March and April. I’m going to post a summary of my Revelstoke trip. Y’all need to get out there. Even non skiers it’s a snowmobile Mecca also but you ski it’s got to be a bucket list thing. I skied all week with no lines at all. Worst wait was 10 mins at the main lift on a powder morning. Most of the time no line at all. Snowed 14” while we were there and they had 250” before we got there.

Looks like a great spring New England ski season imo, for those who care, me. New England has been getting crushed lately and VT resorts are building a deep base now. And signs are for a reasonably chilly March not a sudden thaw. Once to April on sunny days it feels great no matter the pattern just some years they don’t have a ton of snow left to enjoy it. This year looks good for April ski season at Killington, Sugarbush and Sugarloaf. Stowe too but I don’t do Vail owned resorts anymore until they make some major management changes.

Weeklies extend our window until about March 10. It remains somewhat “chilly” after but it has a waves to our NW followed by cold shots look to me once past March 10. But this looks good Mar 1-8

No one even mentioned the euro gave us some Snow from a clipper on the 25 then was lining up another snow for March 1

lol It’s about potential. If we were in a Nino I might have a higher bar. But 8” has always been the bar of what I think feels like a big snow. But if it’s supposed to be a 20” storm and I get fringed with 8 that’s different so it just depends. But in general 8+ is a big snow, 4-7 is a moderate storm and 1-3 is minor and I generally meh those. But I can even enjoy a 1-3” event if it’s part of building a snowpack. Know you don’t care about that. But a 1-3” that’s gone a day later does nada for me. In every case meeting reasonable potential is more important than the number.

Spring is definitely coming. Not only does it feel warm out but the sun felt hot on my face walking to the car. Give me one legit 8”+ snowstorm and I’m ready.

I know there was a 16” snowstorm up here the first week of March 62. Must of been that storm.

Was that the Ashe Wed storm?

1996 was similar but that upper low was incredibly amplified and dove into KY/TN. We would need to see a major adjustment on that part for this to have that kind of potential.

My take, it was gonna be super close...I think anywhere east of 95 was gonna get crushed, full belt to a$$! for places NW of 95 it was close...the storm was about to go nuts but how fast...the CCB was going to have to get cranking real quick and bend more NNW then N or NE from where it ended which is not impossible, it happens in full capture scenarios but how fast it happens would be the key to places like where I am and you are. It would have to go full Jan 2000 or Feb 78 for it to work...but that run was about to be something close to that outcome honestly. The bigger issue is how likely is it to actually go nuclear not just on a model run, remmeber the UK has a tendancy to do that crazy over amp thing sometimes. It's teased us with some storms like this before...remember it had that one run of the coastal bomb in 2018 where it got a foot of snow back to Hagerstown.

To be clear I am NOT rooting for DC to get screwed...there is a path with a storm like this (unlike those progressive waves with their narrow west to east win zones) for the whole region to win...except Richmond F those guys. No seriously no ill will but unless we get some crazy Jan 2000 type full phase capture negative tilt tuck scenario its almost impossible to get a Richmond to the PA line win... But it is very possible to get a DC metro to PA line MECS result if the snow QPF max is centered near DC, places up here get higher ratios and oragraphic assistance and that's how you get a total win for almost everyone in here...again F richmond if they wanted snow they could move, kidding, unless they get snow and I don't and then not kidding.

STRONG MECS signal... I'll take the 996 just off Cape Map please.

That's the trajectory I want to see...also the jack zone...When 95 is the jack heading into the final end game us northerners are usually fine...its when the jack zone is southeast of DC that we are in trouble. That right here is exactly where I want things at this range. Now just wish the GEFS would get on board...but I'd rather have the EPS if I can only have one of em.

BTW wanted to post what I've noticed over the years in terms of trajectory of storms on guidance and when they are most and least likely to adjust north v south. The angles are just symptoms on the models of the underlying reasons but since its easier to just see the angle of precip then to analyze those factors for most people its a cheat code kind of thing. The lines above represent the angle of the precip. Green is the angle most likely to adjust north. This is typical of a wave approaching from the SW, its mature enough to get precip up into the TN valley and its also gaining some amplitude as represented by the fact the precip is gaining latitude east of the mountains some. This combo is the most likely wave to adjust northwest. Guidance most often underestimates the northward extent of precip and the ability of the wave to push the thermal boundary north as it amplifies in this type of setup. Red is not a setup that often adjusts for the better if you are north of the precip and want that "north trend". Red often indicates a wave that is not amplifying, or not amplifying enough to offset a hostile cold press on the north of it. This trajectory is most likely to adjust south actually. Even in extreme examples like Feb 5 2010, it didn't hurt us, but that is an example that adjusted south some at the end...my friend in north central NJ was expecting 6-10" on the northern fringe and got 1". That storm, even as strong as it was, made absolutely no northern adjustment the final 48 hours and if anything adjusted south some at the last minute. The two waves this year that were fails for northern MD had this trajectory also. The two March 2014 storms both trended south some from 72 hours out and they were also examples of this trajectory. January 2019 was another example. This in my experience are least likely to trend north and are more likely to sink south some at the end. The Orange line is a problem because systems tend to adjust NORTH not WEST. A west trend actually requires a faster developing system and that actually goes against model bias that often phases and begins the amplification process of a late developing east coast storm too soon. 9/10 this trajectory will not end will if you are west of the precip on guidance 72 hours out...it probably won't adjust west significantly. There are exceptions to these 3 rules...nothing is 100%, wish it was that easy...Jan 2000 is a great example that broke the orange line rule. But these are generally when we can expect a north v a south trend MOST often based on the trajectory, which again is a cheat to factors causing that trajectory which make a north v south adjustement on guidance more or less likely.