psuhoffman

The low is 4.3 miles north of 50/50

You’re thinking of March 2017 that was ruined by a lakes low.

Second highest east of the Appalachian trail. Get it straight.

Sorry I’m still hung over. The range is 2-5” for the Baltimore area. Say inside the beltway. More south less north. But the difference might not be 2-5. If the 5 is right for the south maybe 3-4 north. If the south gets 4 the north side might be 2-3. This is way too specific but if you want a range for like Towson maybe 2-4”

But why is your bar a HECS? Those are super rare. If we get a 6-12” snowstorm across the area that’s a win.

Why do you keep talking about March 2018 as a fail? It gave us one of our biggest snowstorms since 2016! generally 4-8” across the population corridor with 8+ north of 70! And had it been a couple weeks earlier that storm would have been 12+ across the whole area. That block didn’t develop until the very end of Feb. The storm hit 20 days later after a few misses. This block is developing around Feb 15 so if the same progression repeated that storm would be March 5 and a 10-20” snow across our area!

Unfortunately wave 2 is coming in line with euro less snow so the bust option for northern MD if a south north split seems very likely. I’ve shifted my focus back to the long range.

We seem to do better when I’m skeptical so…

2-5” in Baltimore north to south. Not much of anything up here, maybe 2-3”. I might add some wave 2.

I’m telling you when the HRRR is dry and under amplified sometimes it’s onto something. Not always but I pay it more attention when it’s doing that then when it’s wet and amped. Also I don’t like the trajectory. When waves are projected to be this west to east at our latitude on guidance 24 hours out make up all the times I can remember when things sunk south at game time. The early March 2014 storm was the kind of that. Took a 6-10” storm down to 3” across northern MD. I know the trajectory is just a symptom of the true cause, wave that’s not amplifying enough to overcome the cold press but I’ve found guidance tends to underestimate the northward progress of the moisture transport when a wave is amplifying and over estimate it when it’s not and the trajectory is a good simple way to see it. These things aren’t universal. I’m still watching. I’ve not given up. But I don’t have good vibes. ETA: this is for MD north of 70. I think DC is fine. I’d be excited if I still lived in VA.

On the day of those storms yes numerically the NAO was neutral to positive. But there had been blocking and I consider the loading pattern days before more important. Second most don’t consider the nao by the numerical metric. If they see ridging near Greenland over a vortex under it near 50/50 they call it a -NAO, but numerically it’s actually a -AO. But I’m not interested in a semantics argument about terms. My point is that’s a good pattern for a snowstorm. I don’t care what we call it.

Yes but there were extenuating circumstances. First of all the boundary ended up set up about the same place a lot. And it was just luck that it set up where it did. I was up in central PA that one year and got a lot less snow then Manchester that winter. It was just dumb luck the waves went where they did. Also there were two very amplified storms that season in Feb and March where we jacked up here. But compared to the mean I won’t do as well up here over the long run in an epo driven wave pattern. If that was the pediment pattern every winter for example (using years with that predominant pattern like 2009, 2018, 2022) the avg snow for here would probably be like 26” instead of 40 and the avg snow for somewhere like where @CAPE lives would be like 18” which might even be above the overall avg. Yea being NW would help some but not nearly as much as it does in a more amplified blocking pattern! This area can go over 80” in a winter, even 100”! But most of those years had blocking and amplified storms not progressive wave patterns.

Chuck, first let me say you’re right about the numeric NAO, because of how they calculate it (which most don’t know) that’s probably a neutral NAO. But everything else I’m like ???? First of all that vortex is a hair off from 50/50 and because of how the heights curve on that map it’s more east not north of 50/50. If you go back a day it’s centered right over 50/50. As it is with the wave before, but it doesn’t matter because there is a huge SER that’s not had time to get beat down due to still hostile pacific forcing. And if that 50/50 location doesn’t work then now did this or this happen? The Atlantic vortex was in that same spot for two of our biggest HECS storms.

The pattern is locked and loaded. But now it’s time to cash it into snow on the ground.

Besides the fact I’m a big storm chaser and epo driven progressive wave patterns aren’t that… I also probably hate them because I moved way up here to get more snow and those patterns almost eliminate any advantage being NW gives you. It’s just luck where those waves traverse west to east and it’s typically cold enough even on coast as long as you’re north of the boundary. I’d love those patterns if I lived on the Delmarva or the northern neck. For them a wound up coastal can end up problematic because it’s hard to stay on the cold side closer to the coast.

not everyone lives where you do

I should specify I was specifically looking at MD where its DAF

It's just anecdotal but over the years I've noticed something with the HRRR when it doesn't match up with other guidance...when its more amplified/north/wetter than everything else it almost never is right. When its less amplified or south/dryer...it sometimes is right and the next run of other guidance moves towards it.

This one is not going to be the one to break your streak of bad luck. Sorry

lol its way way way down on the list of data I would weight heavily but it's showing the opposite of what I would want to see given it has tended to be way over amplified at range. I would prefer to see it showing things too far north frankly. Of course where I am I want things to be north in general. This is looking like a very similar setup to Jan 6th which is super YUCK to me but I am happy for those of you to my south who will enjoy this one.

HRRR was the first red flag in that Mar 7 2018 bust because it is almost always over amplified but the evening before when all guidance was showing 4-8" of snow across northeast MD, it starting deamplifying and shifting the snow well northeast...and a few hours later all the 0z guidance came in showing the same thing. It's generally crap at range and hard to use because you can't tell when its on to something or just on something

It is....but.... 90% of the time lately its been way off because its been over amplified and way too far north at range...so it being south and dry like that...well its not what I would want to see.

Everyone wanted the Bills to win 2 weeks ago...but I wanted KC, because I knew the Eagles could do this to them, maybe not to THAT extent, but I wanted the Eagles to be the team to put a stop to their nonsense. Washington has a much better offense than KC, but KC has a better Defense...they were keeping Philly in check somewhat in the first half until the doors came off due to the two turnovers at the end of the first half (the pick 6 followed by the int inside their own 20) which really turned the game sideways. But I think I agree that Washington has a better chance if they played 10 times to win more of those games than KC, and not just because they did win that second regular season game which was really weird and Hurts was out most of. But I think having a better offense gives you more a chance. The offense can get hot and in that kind of game anything can happen. But I don't think you can beat this Philly team in a physical defensive type game...you can't out bully the biggest bully there is.

There is a bit of a lag though