psuhoffman

I have to admit I was extremely busy and preoccupied much of last winter and what time I did devote to snow was mostly predicated on my ski trips. But…I seem to have a VERY different perception of last winter than many. I’m seeing a lot of posts where people seek to be rooting for a repeat of last year. Here at least last year was one of the worst snowfall winters of the 18 I’ve spent in the area. Finished 18” below avg and 12” below median. I’m definitely NOT rooting for anything that resembles last year. I think this winter will resemble last year, but that’s a negative to me.

What CBM said. The low heights on the mean are from two bowling bowls that progressed through after cutters. As both shortwaves were approaching the critical area there was a WAR and full latitude eastern ridge in front.

You gonna yell at me again if I answer?

Huh….the PNA and SE ridge or WAR are EXACTLY why we wasted one of the most -AO periods ever. You’re right that guidance says that changes, history says it won’t. I’m not taking sides just saying facts.

I agree there is some of fluke in this. But 9/9 (or 13/13 if we include ninos) means something. But I don’t mean it to say there is a 100% chance of below avg snow. If we had more years of records eventually there would be an exception. I don’t think it’s impossible to get a snowy winter when I get no snow through New Years. Just the odds are low enough we haven’t captured an example YET. I also opined that perhaps as November and December warms we’re creating a climo where that is more likely.

Good test of guidance v analogs. Several of this years analogs are in that set and they say don’t get your hopes up. The guidance says we head a different direction than history suggests. Place your bets.

We got a little over an inch on Dec 27th. Picture of my kids playing in it. It was barely snow, temp 33-34, rain all around us at lower elevations. only the ridgetops really got it.

Adding El Niño’s doesn’t make they much difference up here like it does for DC. The 4 El Niño’s that started with no snow were all below avg. 2 were awful, 72-73 and 91-92. The other 2 recovered to be respectable but still well below avg snow. Overall in 97 years or records here there are only 13 years that got to January without 1” of snow. They all ended up way below avg snow and 12 of the 13 are on the list of 15 least snowy years here! So basically every single time we didn’t get snow up here by January it was a horrible snow season here. But there is a first time for anything. And for some places in the southern parts of this forum it’s not as dire where one fluke 8” snow can make the season ok.

Off the top of my head I think the non Nino years with less than 1” were 1949-50, 54-55, 58-59, 75-76, 80-81, 84-85, 2001-02, 16-17, 19-20

You know I’m just messing with ya. We all know you know what you’re talking about. Yes the pattern looks good after the first week of January. All my posts are simply pure statistics and climo based because historically Ninas that start bad don’t end well. Given the last total pattern fail I just don’t have the stomach to dive back into day 15 diagnostics. Get a legit threat inside day 5 and I’ll get excited though. Yes but it’s not always a FAIL month. What’s more typical, or was, is we get a lot of frustrating mostly misses but the DC area does get some minor snowfalls. Some 1-2” type stuff. We just don’t remember them because they were seen as fails when just NW of there (like me) got 8”. And up here getting to January with no snow is pretty rare. So yea Dec is usually a small f fail but not always a total FAIL like this. The point of my data was to show that yes we do get a lot of total fails but unfortunately we also get a lot of really bad snowfall years and they tend to be the same often. It's sad. Temps thus month are solidly below average. Precip is above average and yet...no snow So ending on a positive note, was thinking maybe since we’re losing snow climo on the edges most, and early season would logically be impacted most with the warmer SST feeding the SE ridge, in that new climo perhaps it will become more common to have a total dud Dec and still flip snowy in January. If true can’t get back what we lost in a Dec so maybe a 28” winter becomes a 24” one or something like that. But maybe this year will be the first time we went into January with no snow then ended up with a big snowfall year. It’s possible.

It could help. Or it could send the PV to the other side of the world. No way to know.

@Maestrobjwa but if you need to be talked off a ledge the sample size is too small to say there can’t be a fluke. There is probably like a 10% chance we get a result better then any of the previous cohort.

If snow affects you emotionally this much, to the point of affecting your enjoyment of Christmas, you really need to move somewhere that snow isn’t an anomaly! You also need to examine if this hobby is healthy for you. If this upset you like this why did you ask me to share the imfo and why are you here now when you know we’re staring at a no hope shit the blinds pattern setting in. There was not going to be anything good here yet you made the choice to read. I love snow but for me it’s also about the science and weather in general. But I also have other vices and joys I can simply transition to when snow isn’t gonna happen. How do you even survive April to October of snow is this central to your emotional state???

I had some snow up here in December including a 1.5” snowfall right after Xmas.

If snow statistics ruins your Christmas you might need to re-evaluate some things. I had an amazing holiday. Watched my children open presents. Played games. Had dinner with my kids and parents. Watched movies. Now I’m relaxing in bed and has a min for the first time in days and saw your post asking me to share the data a couple days ago. Why would it be depressing. We both already knew it was absolutely awful. I already saw it before and you knew because I told you “it’s really ugly” so…why did you ask to see it and why would data about snow that didn’t happen in past years have any affect on your holiday mood?

Ya we just need 3 straight cutters followed by a perfectly timed shortwave that’s washing out to be just strong enough to drop 1-2”, if it tracks absolutely perfectly. #workingout

You asked didn’t you???

Those numbers seem like a typical winter lately so at least we should be used to it by now.

A lot of those years up there were on the list of very few years that didn’t snow much up here by January 1. Just saying….

@Maestrobjwa DC snowfall in non Nino years where Manchester MD had similarly to this year virtually no snow through New Years. 3.4”, 4.9”, 2.2”, 4.5”, 10.3”, 3.2”, 3.4”, 0.6”

Merry Christmas

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl

THIS THIS THIS THIS THIS... we've wasted several blocking periods over the last 5 years because there was still mid latitude ridging despite high latitude blocking.

That was the second worst 6 year period in history. 1972-1977 was 67.1" compared to 63.8" the last 6 years. The worst 7 year period was 71-77 and BWI needs 16.3" this year to avoid that. After this year it starts getting really bad if we don't get a big snow year next year because the worst 7 year periods in history were all bookended by some pretty big snowfall years. I have in the past compared this period to that one in the 70's and said the slight worse numbers this time are probably simply due to worse climo. I actually think the H5 pattern on the whole was worse in that period in the 70s.

I had a few flurries. But they were the worst few flurries ever!