psuhoffman

The primary system cuts to Toronto. We torch. But it swings a NS SW in behind and develops a secondary storm that stalls right over Ocean City and the deform dynamically cools the column.

Jokes aside... at the lead time we are entering now the control and op usually are pretty close. It's reasonable to think the control at this range MIGHT indicate what the OP could have shown. In the past, before these weird 6/18z euro's when someone posted a control run it was some day 9 thing where at that range the control and op start to diverge significantly...just like ANYTHING at that range is going to have spread due to exponential error as you get that far out. But your point is still valid in that even if the op showed this solution at this range it would mean nothing. A feature like that is going to jump around many times, if its even real, before we get to the event.

Fixed

Ok I’ve been leading the Deb brigade but this is just a flat lie. Temp anomalies at the end of the EPS run And it’s trending colder. It may not be super cold but that’s a workable profile. And frankly the days of being really cold without some anomalous TPV displacement or direct arctic discharge (which isn’t even great for snow see Dec 23 ) are becoming rare. Plus even the new 30 year means are skewed too cold since yes warming. But we’re talking is it cold enough to snow. Compare that to now that profile now is unworkable. There is a huge difference between +10 and +3 temps in our source regions. Look at the actual 850 temps day 15 on EPS That’s not arctic cold no but it’s a very workable profile. The issue is will it actually happen. Guidance head faked a colder pattern for right now 15 days ago but that’s a different argument.

getting incredibly lucky with something like that is probably the only realistic (if unlikely) way something works out in this situation we find ourselves in. But that feature is going to move around every run from this lead. That's something we want to see pop up in the last 24 hours to really be excited. I'm not saying its impossible...someone somewhere will get lucky with it so why not us but we're talking about a two wave system with a double barrel structure both at the surface and upper levels and a redevelopment and locating a deform band which guidance struggles with in any setup. So its gonna be a shotgun type thing on guidance until within very short range.

I was mostly at Greenville but spent a week at Asheville and a week at Boone.

It was Nov to mid Feb 2007 which was fine because I got like 3” there and that was more than up here then I was back for the snow we got in Feb and March that year.

Lol. That was my bar when I spend most of a winter in eastern NC 20 years ago.

I think you’ve got the likely timeline correct. My concern was based on the last 7 years how often have we been able to build domestic cold? The rare cold weve had seems to only come from cross polar flow periods. The pac hasn’t backed off for more than a week or two lately making it hard for the homegrown model to work. But maybe we’ve reached rock bottom. I’ll throw a nugget of optimism out there. Part of my pessimism is that enso neutral and negative winters that start this way tend to be total ratters. But if we were in a Nino I’d be saying “hold the line y’all” and citing all the late flips. A flip to cold late Jan after a dud start is common in ninos. And we’ve been in a very Nino ish pattern for most of the season so maybe this year continues to behave like one. That’s the best I can do on the hopeium front.

It’s not so much expectation as what’s worth getting excited over. I don’t expect it but what I want is what used to be a typical winter prior to 2016. I’d take a 1999, 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2015…basically what used to be 70% of our winters. Something like any of those above where it’s cold and snows a reasonable amount would be fine. But if we have to suffer a 0 just to get another one of these recent new normal single digit torch most of the winters no thanks. It’s all just a different version of crap to me.

The weird thing though is the eps longwave pattern is even better than the gefs. It’s just warm. I find that part very believable

Except in Baltimore they’ve been saying that for 7 years and the next year just brings more crap lol. So I get the frustration. Is there really a high probability next year is snowy? Unless all you mean is “we probably don’t get completely shut out again” but if we get 7” next year (which used to be a dreg awful jump from the bridges result prior to this current period) is that really worth waiting for?

Look at the temps. Canada is still torched. My fear is without a straight Siberian flow it takes forever to build domestic cold lately. Weeks. By then isn’t it likely the pattern shifts again and another pac attack wipes it out in the blink of an eye?

Exactly. There was a decoupling between our area and places just to our north around 2000. Before that there was a better correlation between snowy and non snowy periods. But since 2000 it’s been way more common for places like NYC to get a ton of snow in same seasons we are way below avg. My fear is that was the up cycle and the best we got out of it during that 15 year period was that we were a little less below avg than we were before and after if true it makes the trend alarmingly worse

I agree in a general sense. I do have a concern wrt snow though. I’ve thought this a while and not voiced it but wth. What if the period from 2000-2015 was the big +snow period we’ve been waiting for and we simply missed it (with the exception of a few great years) because of warming? Places not far north of us that historically we have a decent correlation wrt snow had an amazing run. Many places not far from us has like 11/15 years above avg. Meanwhile the best we did most years during that stretch was ok and had more below than above snowfall years. It’s always run in cycles but my fear is that was the snowy period we’ve been waiting for and we just missed out because we are too far south to really ever get a truly snowy long term stretch like previous historical ones.

The usual suspects on Twitter. And some get overly excited by every model run that shows digital blue. Then get mad when reality sets in.

Here’s how bad it’s been the last 7 years…DCA could avg 27” the next 3 seasons and it would still end the 10 year period below avg. A 30 year avg already pathetically lower than previous historical periods!!!

You’ve been unhappy 7 years in a row. Isn’t it time you make a change. Stop waiting for external forces to change your situation and do it yourself. I’m not saying this again. So I’m gonna be as blunt as possible then I’m done forever with this. Just accept the snow climo here isn’t going to make you happy. Accept that. Really accept it in every way Damnit. Then do whatever you have to to be happy. Please. I’m not trying to be an ass. I do care. You’re torturing yourself. Stop it. Accept the reality and then do what is necessary to be happy.

And we’re experts in not looking good

Oh no you said it. He might be jumping off a building right now. Ive posted the data to back this up. Years that started like this one didn’t end well 99% of the time. But I’ve been too timid to flat out say it. But I feel it.

Don’t worry CFS says a pattern change is only 20 days away!

It’s not just anecdotal it’s verification scores are a mess

You think I spent thousands of hours pouring over every text and studying every snowstorm we’ve ever had because I don’t like snow??? Dude I know. But you need to just accept it. Seriously. Try this…assume it’s never going to snow again. Just accept that. Then what are you going to do? Ball up and cry forever? Or…find other things to invest in emotionally that bring you joy. Or move to where it snows. Or chase snowstorms. Take some control of your situation. Own your story. Do what it takes to make you happy instead of wallowing in defeat. Man up and deal.

Ya we probably aren’t talking enough about the fact the Gfs has been a real train wreck since the last update. People say this all the time and usually it a joke but they really did break the thing. Not that it was great before but honestly I found the Gfs more useful 10 years ago when it had more consistent biases and I felt I could adjust and figure out what the error was. Now the only consistent bias is being horribly wrong.

@Maestrobjwa I suggest you learn to laugh about this. It’s all you can do. Ignoring it won’t change it. Getting upset won’t make you feel better. Just laugh and find other things that give you joy in life. Or chase the snow. Or move somewhere that gets snow. But for the love of god don’t stay here and be depressed that it’s not snowing when you know it’s not going to snow 99% of the time.